Racing Testing Lab

Each way betting – a background How do I go about my each-way selection process? In this post you will see a list of races which all have one thing in common. They are all 8/9 runner races as this is the shortest field which pays out for horses finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd . By selecting an 8/9 runner race, you immediately put the probabilities of selecting a horse to finish in the top 3, in your favour. Remember that your objective is to find a horse to finish in the top 3, with a winner being an obvious bonus. 1) we select only from 8/9 runner races 2) we make 2 selections. The first is called the Usual selection .

A usual selection is a horse who is near the head of the betting forecast and who looks like an obvious selection to finish in the first 3 at least. We then make a speculative selection. This horse is likely to be a bigger price and is selected because horse racing is inherently unpredictable and races are won by other -than the market leaders We want to be able to cover a bigger priced horse who might surprise.

On the 3rd May 2014, I selected just such a horse, Run with Pride, and he won at Betfair SP odds of 142, and paid 12 to place. 3) which brings me to my 3rd point. Use Betfair Sp for your win and place only bets . Why? Well Run with Pride won at odds of 142 using Betfair SP, and returned at only 33/1 with the bookmakers.

This is the background behind the selections you will find here. Make sure you check the place onlyterms at www.betfair.com. Some races may only pay out on 2 places. We want to see 3 places as it increases our probabilities of getting a return.

Yesterday

515 galway Betting forecast: 6/4 Zafayan, 2/1 Bachasson, 9/2 Moonmeister, 6/1 Neverushacon, 9/1 All The Answers, 20/1 Sea´s Aria, 33/1 Annadiamond, 66/1 Walk Of Shame.
usual Moonmeister  – pulled up 20.85
speculative All the Answers – 5th 60 

Another apparent 2 horse race at Galway. The 3rd favourite picks himself. I also went with the horse near the 3 outsiders. Yes the front 2 might clog the places, but as this is Irish racing, I hope we get a shock result.
215 na Betting forecast: 1/3 Lamool, 6/1 Only Gorgeous, 7/1 Sky Watch, 12/1 Beat The Tide, 20/1 Theatre Goer, 25/1 Lee Side Lady, 50/1 I´llhavealook, 50/1 Milburn.
usual Sky Watch  – none
speculative Beat the Tide – 3rd 20.1 win and 1.49 place

Lamool is highly likely to win but then so was that 1/6 shot last week. This is a jumps race too so all it takes is an error and we have a sniff of a chance.
525 na Betting forecast: 11/10 Wilde Oak, 7/2 Junior Package, 6/1 Good Rhythm, 10/1 Airpur Desbois, 14/1 Arthur Burrell, 14/1 Black Kettle, 16/1 Wy Worry, 33/1 Josie Jump, 33/1 Menace.
usual Junior Package  – 4th 6.2
speculative Airpur Desbois – 5th 24.46

Junior Package is the obvious horse here and I went with 10/1 shot as the speculative choice. I suppose one of the 14/1 shots is more speculative. Again we need Wilde Oak to have a bad day at the office.
835 windsor Betting forecast: 15/8 Oskar Denarius, 5/1 Molly Cat, 11/2 Vaguely Spanish, 13/2 Khee Society, 7/1 Mandy´s Boy, 9/1 Pat´s Legacy, 10/1 Hallings Comet, 12/1 Shalianzi.
usual Vaguely Spanish  – non runner
speculative Pat’s Legacy – 4th 5.52

The 325 Newton Abbot is the one that got away. ” I suppose one of the 14/1 shots is more speculative” Indeed Arthur Burrell, the horse next to Airpur Desbois in the betting , won at a massive 60/1!! Sometimes we just need a bit of luck. I should have followed my instincts there and opted for a 14/1 horse!

2 non runners again halved our chances of getting a placer/winner. I cannot legislate for these alas.

Today

320 beverley Betting forecast: 9/4 Crombay, 7/2 Roaring Rory, 4/1 Naziba, 6/1 Twentysvnthlancers, 8/1 Garden World, 8/1 Sunnyhills Belford, 16/1 Arcane Dancer, 33/1 Cosmic Dust.
usual Naziba
speculative Sunnyhills Belford

3rd favourite today and the horse just before the 2 apparent outsiders.
515 galway Betting forecast: 11/8 Long Dog, 7/2 Adimelo, 4/1 Solatentif, 10/1 Three Stars, 14/1 Cecil Corbett, 14/1 Patsio, 16/1 Mr Boss Man, 20/1 Space Ship, 100/1 Survival.
usual Adimelo
speculative Cecil Corbet

We could have 2nd or 3rd favourites has the usual selection today. Cecil Corbett is 5th in the betting and an ok speculative choice. As ever, these short priced favourites need to under-perform.
150 wolves Betting forecast: 6/4 Livella Fella, 4/1 Invigorate, 7/1 Breslin, 8/1 Scarlet Pursuits, 9/1 Threebagsue, 12/1 Fast Cat, 12/1 Four´s Company, 14/1 Beauchamp Monark, 33/1 Silhouette.
usual Invigorate
speculative Fast Cat

Usual selection seems obviois. I went for the 1st horse over 10/1 as the speculative selection.
510 wolves Betting forecast: 11/10 Borough Boy, 11/2 Classic Image, 13/2 Ecliptic Sunrise, 13/2 Give Us A Belle, 12/1 Tyfos, 14/1 Bapak Bangsawan, 16/1 Electric Qatar, 16/1 Shawkantango, 20/1 Bilash.
usual Give us a Belle
speculative Bapak Bangsawan

3 horses between 11/2 and 13/2 could be usual selections. Tyfus or Bapak for me as speculative.