A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

Yesterday

8 515 galway Betting forecast: 6/4 Zafayan, 2/1 Bachasson, 9/2 Moonmeister, 2nd 1.22
6 455 na Betting forecast: 11/8 Zama Zama, 2/1 Dream Bolt, 6/1 Matrow´s Lady, 2nd 2.14
7 605 sthl Betting forecast: Evs Mont Kiara, 2/1 Comparinka, 8/1 Rocking Rudolph, 3rd 1.99

Today

14 720 galway Betting forecast: 2/1 Unyielding, 2/1 Valac, 7/1 Ibergman,
10 310 goodwood Betting forecast: 2/1 Toormore, 9/4 Dutch Connection, 7/1 Safety Check,
7 635 worcester Betting forecast: 9/4 Strongly Suggested, 5/2 Red Seventy, 11/2 Fairyinthewind