Racing Testing Lab

With this post, I am looking at a number of laying strategies, and these tend to be focussed upon the all-weather. The first strategy is laying penalised horses on the all-weather. These horses tend to be “anchored” by an increase in weight and over time have proven to be profitable when we lay 6lb and 12lb penalty handicap winners..

Laying favourites in Irish bumpers is simplicity itself. What we do is, well, lay favourites in Irish National Hunt flat races.

I wrote an article on lay Ladders in May 2014’s edition of What Really Wins Money. This lay ladder article uses the lay selections found below in the”Lay the Favourite on the All Weather in Maidens Claimers and Sellers” section below. It has proven to be very profitable long-term. But if loss retrieval is not your thing ( and it won’t be for some because losses can be large, despite long, long winning runs), then leave this alone.

The last section is “Back the favourite in the worse performing races on the all weather.” This section needs www.stakingmachine.com or a knowledge of “rolling doubles ” staking plan. You can read about this staking plan at http://www.thestakingmachine.com/rolling_doubles.php

Handicap Top weights on the all-weather.

Laying handicap top weights ( not joint top weights) has been a profitable long term endeavour. I lay below the odds of 10. We do occasionally hit a big priced winner but it seems that the lost liability is negated quickly thanks to the consistent stream of winning lays. I post an update for the month in What Really Wins Money newsletter.

 Yesterday

620 wolves schottische 6th 6.67
750 wolves crazy chic 1st 2.35
820 wolves swendab 10th 10.08
920 wolves four nations 1st 3.75
250 kempton mistamel 10th 5.26
355 kempton cincuenta pasos 8th 7.87
425 kempton canon law 9th 11.86
240 sthl; diamondsinthesky
345 sthl monsieur jimmy 1st 5.47
415 sthl newgate queen 4th 5.9
445 sthl spitfire 5th 5.77

Today

705 chelms speed the plough
740 chelms bint dandy
840 chelms lanceur
910 chelms denzille lane
305 wolves taysh
335 wolves pull the plug
440 wolves king in waiting

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Laying penalised horses on the all-weather. It seems these horses are vulnerable when given a 6 lb or 12 lb penalty

Yesterday

920 wolves chloe’s image non runner

Today

335 wolves pull the plug

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Lay the Favourite in Irish Bumpers .

A bumper race is a National Hunt Flat Race. They are found in jumps meetings and usually are the last race of the day. These races has “flat race” or a derivative thereof in the title and laying the favourite to level stakes has proven to be very profitable over time.

Yesterday

None

Today

715 punch
605 punch

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Lay the Favourite on the All Weather in Maidens Claimers and Sellers

The idea here is to focus on races on the All-weather ( you will see an AW in brackets at www.racingpost.com cards whenever there is an all-weather meeting.) I thought that targeting favourites in traditionally tough races ( maidens – horses who are starting out in their careers and have never won can be inconsistent), claimers ( open to upsets) and sellers( poor horses running and then being sold on) would produce a reasonable profit over time. This has proved the case so far.

I may have found an excellent staking plan to accompany this strategy. This betting strategy lays the favourites in the races listed below ONLY if they are 3.5 or higher in the Betfair market. We operate a 3 bet betting cycle, looking to retrieve losses and stake should the first lay lose.

It is high risk, but so far the longest losing sequence is 2. This is a strategy for quickly building up a betting bank.

I don’t include joint favourites when laying.

Yesterday

mdn 140 kempton 2nd 3.55
mdn 215 kempton 2nd 2.31
mdn 205 sthl 1st 1.33
mdn 310 sthl 1st 2.3
mdn 720 wolves 1st 3.2
mdn 850 wolves 1st 2.2

Today

mdn 555 chelms
mdn 630 chelms
mdn 205 wolves
mdn 235 wolves

Mdn = Maiden Slr = Seller clm = claimer

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Back the favourite in the worse performing races on the all weather.

Thisis actually making a profit as a backing system with a very specialist staking plan and backing all selections priced at 3.5 and under.

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/rolling_doubles.php is the staking plan and very interesting it is too. It seems perfectly suited to favourites

This staking plan and backing idea seems to be producing the goods!

Yesterday

345 sthl 2nd 3.4
620 wolves 3rd 4.47
750 wolves 1st 2.35
920 wolves 5th 2.64

Today

335 wolves
405 wolves
440 wolves
515 wolves