Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Thursday 27th November 2014

A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

Yesterday

 

9 1240 fontwell Betting forecast: 4/6 Coologue, 5/4 Southfield Royale, 25/1 Like Sully, – 2nd 1.06
7 350 fontwell Betting forecast: 6/4 Somerset Jem, 5/2 Time And Again, 5/1 Dexter Benjamin, – 4th 1.91
8 615 kempton Betting forecast: Evs Rightway, 6/4 Kokovoko, 7/1 Summersault, – 2nd 1.12
11 1230 lingfield Betting forecast: 9/4 Awesome Power, 11/4 Royal Albert Hall, 6/1 Crisscrossed, – 1st 1.36
5 200 lingfield Betting forecast: 4/5 Two Smart, 9/4 Elhaam, 6/1 Qatar Princess, – 2nd 1.18
6 235 lingfield Betting forecast: 11/8 Maverick Wave, 3/1 Energia Fox, 6/1 Castilo Del Diablo, – 1st 1.33
16 120 wetherby Betting forecast: 5/4 Ma Du Fou, 15/8 The Grey Taylor, 13/2 Apterix, – 3rd 1.2
9 225 wetherby Betting forecast: 9/4 Final Countdown, 9/4 Top Of The Glas, 6/1 Hainan – 2nd 1.23
9 330 wetherby Betting forecast: 6/4 Carinena, 3/1 Now Let Go, 6/1 Bedale Lane, – 3rd 1.5

Today

14 425 kempton Betting forecast: 7/4 Niblawi, 11/4 Quest For Wonder, 13/2 Faith Matters,
3 210 newbury Betting forecast: 2/7 Southfield Theatre, 5/2 Carraig Mor, 100/1 My Silver Cloud.
8 245 newbury Betting forecast: 5/2 Ned Stark, 11/4 Ceasar Milan, 7/1 Gentleman Jon,
4 145 Taunton Betting forecast: 6/4 Cody Wyoming, 9/4 Somchine, 4/1 Somemothersdohavem,
8 155 uttoxeter Betting forecast: 5/2 Acapulco Bay, 5/2 Nolecce, 5/1 Stag Hill
5 335 uttoxeter Betting forecast: 4/5 The Boss´s Dream, 2/1 Charlie Breekie, 11/2 Monkey Rum,