I wrote an article for my eletter on this subject, focussing on Banker Bets and showing you how we can profit from them.

I’ll list some apparent “bankers” in this post, and time permitting, will try to do this daily. I try to look for 1.1 odds or higher. The goal is to win back your initial stake and bank that immediately, then play on, banking profits every £10 or so.

This is not a strategy where I’m trying to create the biggest odds returns. I want a “banker”, a bet which is obvious.

Bankers and Blowouts – the mini-DRT angle.

www.drt.club is my trading service where I do all of my football research. I have noticed that these bankers, whilst sometimes frustrating us with score draws and throwing away 2-0 leads, rarely lose matches. How can you profit? Well are you familiar with football trading? That is, reacting to how a match unfolds in-play? If you are then you would have taken on faith the fact that these bankers rarely lose, and layed Dundee in play , when they were 1-3 up to bankers Aberdeen. Final score ( as you see below), 3-3. How about more frustrating bar stewards like Club Brugge the other day against Mechelen.

Staying with our premis that Bankers rarely lose, what could you have done if Mechelen ( as they did) take the lead? Lay Mechelen! Better yet, what if the match was still 0-1 coming to 90 minutes? Lay Mechelen at lower odds for potentially greater profit! You know what happened next, I am sure. Club Brugge equalised in the 90th minute.

I have already mentioned the idea of laying a team 2-0 up, to lock in profit. Consider the above elements too , in order to maximise the premis that Bankers rarely lose.

Just an added note regarding staking. If the strike rate remains as high as it is, I would recommend staying with level stakes, but re-calculating every 20 bets  which would have produced a bank of 747 pounds from an initial 100 pounds in November. Increasing the frequency to re-calculating 10% of the betting bank every 10 bets does extract a little more profit.

Plenty to ponder there. If you increase the % of bank bet, of course, then things really start getting exciting ( but ever the cautious, I’d have to warn you that it would be a big fall from grace if we hit a losing run)

At this juncture, level stakes is the only realistic staking option as some bets kick off at the same time. If you wanted other options, then select one bet at one time, as long as the next bet began after the 1st bet ended. This way you could employ “reactive” staking.

By selecting one bet for a specific time, the number of bets reduces from 225 to 137. Is there any advantage in reactive staking? Let’s take a look.

 

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php is the staking plan of interest, betting 20% of the bank ( as the assumed strike rate will continue to be high), turned 100 pounds on 22 November 2014 into 1356.48 as of today. ( as you can tell I don’t have apound sign on my keyboard lol).

We can employ a higher risk staking I think with assumed higher strike rate strategies. If doing , I would strongly urge you to withdraw initial seed money once the bank has doubled to allow you to employ these higher risk strategies using OPM  – other people’s money.

Yesterday

10am – Kiki Bertens v Svetlana Kuznetsova – 1.24 Svetlana – an excellent Madrid campaign on clay. She should win . 2-1 to Kuznetsova

10am – Petra Kvitova v Marina Erakovic – 1.09 Petra 1.34 for 2 sets to nil. It was 6-4 6-4 the last time these 2 met so we may have to be patient. 2-1 to Kvitova

10am – Lukas Lacko v David Ferrer – 1.01 Ferrer – 1.11 Ferrer 3-0 is value-less though. I would lay Ferrer at 1.01 just because the liability is miniscule. 3-0 Ferrer

1115am – Quentin Halys v Rafael Nadal  – 1.01 – as above with Ferrer. 1.11 for 3-0 sets . Lay at 1.01 just in case…. 3-0 nadal

1130am – Karin Knapp v Caroline Wozniacki – 1.22 Woz. – top 5 should win. I would not risk 2-0 Caroline although I do expect… 2-0 Woz

1245pm – Richard Gasquet v Germain Gigounon – 1.03 Gasquet – 1.42 Gasquet 3-0 sets based really on the rankings 21st v 209th. 3-0 Gasquet

1245pm – Novak Djokovic v Jarkko Nieminen – 1.01 Novak. – 1.17 Novak 3-0 . Based on recent form, Djokovic beat Federer 2-0 and Federer recently beat Nieminen 2-0. 3-0 Novak

1245pm – Andreas Seppi v John Isner – 1.41 Isner –  Isner has been in excellent form and I expect an eventual win. 3-0 Isner

2pm – Grigor Dimitrov v Jack Sock – 1.28 Dimitrov – Dimitrov should win this one, despite Jack Sock winning a recent clay tournament in the USA. 3-0 Sock

Today  – under construction!

There are no football matches of interest today ( yet again). The Romanian league matches are dead rubbers. The Greek match is in a play-off format and the Europa League Final sees Sevilla as 1.62 favourites against a Dnipro who kept Napoli un-naturally quiet in the 2 legged semi-finals. Sevilla have scored 2+ goals consistently in the Europa League campaign.

 

10am – Annika Beck v Paula Kania  – 1.35 Beck

10am – Benjamin Becker v Fernando Verdasco  – 1.05 Verdasco

10am – Borna Coric v Tommy Robredo  – 1.46 Robredo

10am – Vitalia Diatchenko v Maria Sharapova  – 1.03 Maria

10am – David Goffin v Santiago Giraldo  – 1.35 Goffin

10am – Lucie Hradecka v Victoria Azarenka  – 1.14 Azarenka

10am – Kyle Edmund v Nick Kyrgios  – 1.11 Nick

10am – Karolina Pliskova v Andreea Mitu  – 1.32 Karolina

10am – Martin Klizan v Gilles Simon  – 1.58 Simon

10am – Thanasi Kokkinakis v Bernard Tomic  – 1.63 Thanasi

10am – Ana Konjuh v Irina-Camelia Begu  – 1.42 Irina

10am – Lucie Safarova v Kurumi Nara  – 1.15 Lucie

10am – Jurgen Melzer v Andrey Kuznetsov  – 1.63 Andrey

10am – Stan Wawrinka v Dusan Lajovic  – 1.09 Stan

10am – Sergiy Stakhovsky v Steve Johnson  – 1.67 Steve

10am – Samantha Stosur v Amandine Hesse  – 1.08 Sam

22nd v unranked Hesse from French. No head to heads. As I wrote earlier, Sam Stosur is a recent clay court tournament winner.

1.32 for Sam Stosur 2-0 set betting has a great chance. She is the woman with momentum. Hesse lost easily to Alize Cornet in the US Open and this could be a repeat.

10am – Heather Watson v Sloane Stephens  – 1.43 Sloane

Guernsey’s finest battled through to win. Sloane Stephens is the price Heather was last time she played.

This is interest. 45th ranked Heather plays 40th placed Sloane.

Heather has won in the last 4 head to heads. She dropped a set twice in 2012 but in 2015 in Hobart, she won 6-3, 6-1 on the hard court.

2 1st round exits, a 2nd round exit to Carla for Heather recently.

Sloane reached the semi’s in Strasbourg.

On form I would favour Sloane Stephens but I could see this being competitive. I hope Heather takes a set and I would lay the first set winner to win 2-0 here today. I hope I’m right and the market is wrong.

10am – Carina Witthoeft v Sara Errani  – 1.4 Sara

11am – Matteo Viola v Guido Pella  – 1.33 Pella

1130am – Marcos Baghdatis v Damir Dzumhur  – 1.64 Marcos

1130am – Juan Monaco v Teymuraz Gabashvili  – 1.42 Juan

1130am – Kei Nishikori v Thomaz Bellucci  – 1.12 Kei

5th v 40th in the world. 2.02 for 3-0 sets. It is a long journey to win 3-0 .

Bellucci won in 2007 and that match can be ignored I think

Nishikori has lost only to Murray and Djokovic, an elite group

Bellucci reached the final in Geneva on Clay and won. There must be some confidence residue from this.

The 2nd set for Nishikori was 7-5 so we may see a Kei blip here at some stage.

I do expect Nishikori to win 3-0 but I would lay him 3-0 up at the start of the 2nd set in the hope Bellucci creates that Kei middle set blip and takes it to 5-5 or even 6-6.

12pm – Alize Cornet v Alexandra Dulgheru  – 1.88 Alize

Alize was near evens for the 1st round and with the help of Les Locals, she won that match

29th v 51st in the rankings.. Most recently in Doha this year, Cornet lost in 3 sets. Hence the trepidation about the odds. I would lay Alize if she won the first set. Indeed it might be the case to lay the first set winner here in what could possibly be a 3 setter and featuring a tie breaker

12pm – Ernests Gulbis v Nicolas Mahut  – 1.24 Ernests

1245pm – Renzo Olivo v Thiemo De Bakker  – 1.4 De Bakker

130pm – Roberto Bautista Agut v Lukas Rosol  – 1.22 Roberto

130pm – Fabio Fognini v Benoit Paire  – 1.3 Fabio

Foggy was great in winning 3-0 at a tasty price in the earlier round. He plays French hope Benoit Paire and his odds have risen slightly for this round.  27th v 71st in the World.  Paire won 6-1 6-4 on clay in 2012. That’s a long time ago to be of strong relevance today.

Paire struggled in 5 sets in the first round against Gastao Elias, ranked 152nd and that could be damning today. Paire will get a lift from his froggie mates today and may take a set but Foggy should out. I hope Paire lands an early blow and would be with Foggy throughout . I will hope his odds rise in-play.

130pm – Bojana Jovanovski v Donna Vekic  – 1.56 Bojana

130pm – Mirjana Lucic-Baroni v Simona Halep  – 1.05 Simona

70th v 3rd in the world. I made some amazing money with Lucic-Baroni when she played Madison Keys recently. She was playing the 1st seed in Geneva and took a 5-2 lead first set. She won 6-4. In the 2nd set, she was 5-1 up and lost that set 7-6! I know, I layed Mirjana at 1.03 and wrote off the lay and turned the match off. To say I was delighted was an under statement.

Was Madison Keys off colour here or is this a sign of some potential from the 70th ranked player?

Do watch out therefore for a potential grab for a set, only to fall by the wayside.

Halep lost 1-2 to my ole pal , Carla Suarez Navarro in the semi final in Italy, so has the better form.

Please Mirjana, do as you did with Madison Keys, and look as if you are cruising to a 2-0 only to crash and burn spectacularly!

Simona should be too clinical though.

130pm – Gael Monfils v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman  – 1.15 Gael

Gael won 3-1 when he had the 2nd set in his grasp. He is prone therefore to the odd mental lapse. A cautious 2.02 for 3-0 sets.  There is no Betfair form for these players.  No head to heads between 14th and 62nd seeds. Limited stats to work with. I would consider laying Monfils 3-0 sets if he wins the first set.  I would certainly be with Gael today if Diego wins the first set .

130pm – Yulia Putintseva v Elina Svitolina  – 1.19 Elina

130pm – Radek Stepanek v Tomas Berdych  – 1.04 Tomas

the last time these 2 met was 2011 so irrelevant. 4th v 129th in the world. Stepanek is a recogniseable name but obviously on the decline.

Only Federer and Nadal have beaten Berdych recently. He plays a fellow Czech and that might be an x factor here. Stepanek though has 2 1st round exits and a 2nd round exit to his name. Old big thighs should have too much for him here. 3-0 is at 1.46

130pm – Ajla Tomljanovic v Angelique Kerber  – 1.26 Kerber

58th v 11th in the world. 1.8 for 2-0 Kerber is a bit cautious of the market. These 2 have yet to meet. Ajla lost to Sam Stosur in the quarter finals on clay in Geneva.Kerber retired in the semi finals in Nurnberg on clay and met Babos in the first round who herself retired. Kerber should be very rested you’d think here. I have a feeling the Nurnberg tournament was an obligation as she was German.

If it was not an injury worry, I think she should be rested enough to make her top 11 ranking count today.

2pm – Garbine Muguruza v Camila Giorgi  – 1.37 Garb

3pm – Pablo Andujar v Philipp Kohlschreiber  – 1.45 Phil

42nd v 28th and I think this is going to be a tighter match than the odds suggest. 3-0 is in jeopardy here I think.

In both head to head wins for Kohl, 2 sets went to a tie breaker. I think this will be the case today so lay the first set winner perhaps in the 3-0 set betting market and hope for a tie breaker to quickly follow. Tie breakers are generally a lottery so could go either way. Kohl lost to Andy Murray in Madrid and retired in Italy. It seems Go Soeda retired in the first round .Andujar reached the quarter finals in Geneva.

It all points to a ding dong battle you feel today. Good for trading.

 

3pm – Magdalena Rybarikova v Flavia Pennetta  – 1.2 Flavia

330pm – Ana Ivanovic v Misaki Doi  – 1.14 Ana

7th v 103rd in the rankings, Ana ( phoarr) is 1.39 to win in 2 straight sets.In 4 of Ana ( phoarr)’s last 5 matches both players have won a set so do watch out for that.

She did win a set against Carla Suarez Navarro in Madrid so some promise there as Carla is arguably the women’s form player.

Doi went out 1st round in Italy, quarter final Nurnberg, and won 2-0 first round French Open.

There are no head to heads. Ana should win based on rankings but if dropping the first set, have faith in her winning the next 2 sets.

330pm – Bryan/Bryan v Klaasen/Y Lu  – 1.13 Bry

No research required really . The Bryan brothers are the kings of men’s doubles so let’s hope the Lu partnership nick the first set to allow us to trade.

330pm – Carla Suarez Navarro v Virginie Razzano  – 1.07 Carla

8th v 182nd . Razzano won the solitary head to head in 2013. Life has changed for Carla since then

1.27 for 2-0 sets is very enticing.

BANKERS

10am – Samantha Stosur v Amandine Hesse  – 1.08 Sam – 1.27 for 2-0 has a chance here. Will Hesse find hope from her french crowd? I think the rankings are too far apart and Sam has that clay tournament win earlier to build from.

130pm – Fabio Fognini v Benoit Paire  – 1.3 Fabio – this may not be 3-0 but Foggy should see off Paire who really struggled v a player outside the world top 100 in an earlier round.

130pm – Mirjana Lucic-Baroni v Simona Halep  – 1.05 Simona – I am not sure we’ll see a repeat of Baroni’s heroics v Keys here against a top 10 player. 1.28 for 2-0 sets

330pm – Carla Suarez Navarro v Virginie Razzano  – 1.07 Carla  1.27 for 2-0 to Carla. Back the form girl early stages