A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.
Background
2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.
Follow these steps below
1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.
2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.
3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
Yesterday
7 425 carlisle Betting forecast: 4/6 Pamushana, 9/4 Biff Johnson, 10/1 Celtic Power, 1st 1.11
8 230 uttoxeter Betting forecast: 11/10 Tahira, 11/8 Tea In Transvaal, 12/1 Hija, 2nd 1.14
Today
8 515 galway Betting forecast: 6/4 Zafayan, 2/1 Bachasson, 9/2 Moonmeister,
6 455 na Betting forecast: 11/8 Zama Zama, 2/1 Dream Bolt, 6/1 Matrow´s Lady,
7 605 sthl Betting forecast: Evs Mont Kiara, 2/1 Comparinka, 8/1 Rocking Rudolph,
Still not sure what you mean by ” Bookmaker Favourite” rather than Betfair favourite and Racing post SP favourite when using the 2 horse race place system.
I did email regarding this, but you simply replied “Bookmaker Favourite is exactly what it says” which I understand, but where do I FIND the Bookmaker favourite
The answer is probably simple but I just can’t get my head round it. The bet is placed with betfair…. do I need to use the favourite of a particular Bookie? is the same horse favourite with all bookies but often not with betfair? I’m confused Clive, please help.