Bankers or Blowouts

Selections for Monday 27th April 2015

Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Monday 27th April 2015

I wrote an article for my eletter on this subject, focussing on Banker Bets and showing you how we can profit from them.

I’ll list some apparent “bankers” in this post, and time permitting, will try to do this daily. I try to look for 1.1 odds or higher. The goal is to win back your initial stake and bank that immediately, then play on, banking profits every £10 or so.

This is not a strategy where I’m trying to create the biggest odds returns. I want a “banker”, a bet which is obvious.

Bankers and Blowouts – the mini-DRT angle.

www.drt.club is my trading service where I do all of my football research. I have noticed that these bankers, whilst sometimes frustrating us with score draws and throwing away 2-0 leads, rarely lose matches. How can you profit? Well are you familiar with football trading? That is, reacting to how a match unfolds in-play? If you are then you would have taken on faith the fact that these bankers rarely lose, and layed Dundee in play , when they were 1-3 up to bankers Aberdeen. Final score ( as you see below), 3-3. How about more frustrating bar stewards like Club Brugge the other day against Mechelen.

Staying with our premis that Bankers rarely lose, what could you have done if Mechelen ( as they did) take the lead? Lay Mechelen! Better yet, what if the match was still 0-1 coming to 90 minutes? Lay Mechelen at lower odds for potentially greater profit! You know what happened next, I am sure. Club Brugge equalised in the 90th minute.

I have already mentioned the idea of laying a team 2-0 up, to lock in profit. Consider the above elements too , in order to maximise the premis that Bankers rarely lose.

Just an added note regarding staking. If the strike rate remains as high as it is, I would recommend staying with level stakes, but re-calculating every 20 bets  which would have produced a bank of 747 pounds from an initial 100 pounds in November. Increasing the frequency to re-calculating 10% of the betting bank every 10 bets does extract a little more profit.

Plenty to ponder there. If you increase the % of bank bet, of course, then things really start getting exciting ( but ever the cautious, I’d have to warn you that it would be a big fall from grace if we hit a losing run)

At this juncture, level stakes is the only realistic staking option as some bets kick off at the same time. If you wanted other options, then select one bet at one time, as long as the next bet began after the 1st bet ended. This way you could employ “reactive” staking.

By selecting one bet for a specific time, the number of bets reduces from 225 to 137. Is there any advantage in reactive staking? Let’s take a look.

 

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php is the staking plan of interest, betting 20% of the bank ( as the assumed strike rate will continue to be high), turned 100 pounds on 22 November 2014 into 1356.48 as of today. ( as you can tell I don’t have apound sign on my keyboard lol).

We can employ a higher risk staking I think with assumed higher strike rate strategies. If doing , I would strongly urge you to withdraw initial seed money once the bank has doubled to allow you to employ these higher risk strategies using OPM  – other people’s money.

Yesterday

12:30 UK Dundee Utd v Celtic – 1.4 away – 0-3

16:30 UK Zenit St Petersburg v Arsenal Tula – 1.2 home – 1-0

I missed Sevilla yesterday. Somehow I overlooked the match which was an ideal banker bet. A pity.

Today

It’s a toughie today. It’s that part of the season.

 7:45pm – Bournemouth v Bolton – 1.29 home – will you back a team who simply must win? 2-4-3-4-2 scored at home recently by Bournemouth. Their 2-2 draw last home match is a potential season killer if they cannot win today. No defeat in 11 matches should see them NOT lose at least.

Bolton have lost all away matches v top 10 bar a 2-2 draw. All defeats bar a single draw home and away v top 6 for Bolton.

If Bournemouth do not in, an automatic promotion spot could disappear.

7:45pm – Valencia v Granada – 1.31 home – 6 Valencia wins and a 1-1 in recent head to heads. 5th v 19th. Both sides desperate for points. Sevilla’s win yesterday means Valencia need to win to get a top 4 spot.

Only 2 defeats in 19 for Valencia should make this a home win/draw choice.

Only 1 loss at home for Valencia. They have 8 wins in their last 9 matches.

Granada have no win in 14 and a 5 match losing streak away. They have conceded in their last 10 away matches and have only 2 wins in their last 28 matches.  Lose away to all top 7 conceding at least 2 goals.

TODAY’S BANKER

 7:45pm – Valencia v Granada – 1.31 home  – the form does look compelling and I do acknowledge that need can produce improved performances from the minnows at this time of the year. A hope Valencia score 2/3 as they have done recently at home

Bournemouth have a superb opportunity tonight but it will be a nervy affair for them and I might change my mind after checking out the inplay stats.

Let’s hope Valencia are as solid as Sevilla were yesterday