Each way betting – a background

How do I go about my each-way selection process? In this post you will see a list of races which all have one thing in common. They are all 8/9 runner races as this is the shortest field which pays out for horses finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd .

By selecting an 8/9 runner race, you immediately put the probabilities of selecting a horse to finish in the top 3, in your favour.

Remember that your objective is to find a horse to finish in the top 3, with a winner being an obvious bonus.

1) we select only from 8/9 runner races

2) we make 2 selections. The first is called the Usual selection . A usual selection is a horse who is near the head of the betting forecast and who looks like an obvious selection to finish in the first 3 at least. We then make a speculative selection. This horse is likely to be a bigger price and is selected because horse racing is inherently unpredictable and races are won by other -than the market leaders We want to be able to cover a bigger priced horse who might surprise.

On the 3rd May 2014, I selected just such a horse, Run with Pride, and he won at Betfair SP odds of 142, and paid 12 to place.

3) which brings me to my 3rd point. Use Betfair Sp for your win and place only bets . Why? Well Run with Pride won at odds of 142 using Betfair SP, and returned at only 33/1 with the bookmakers.

This is the background behind the selections you will find here.

Make sure you check the place only terms at www.betfair.com. Some races may only pay out on 2 places. We want to see 3 places as it increases our probabilities of getting a return.

Yesterday

515 lingfield Betting forecast: 4/5 Prize Exhibit, 3/1 Artfilly, 8/1 Pudding, 10/1 Its Lady Mary, 16/1 Onelastfling, 16/1 White Vin Jan, 50/1 Lady Ballantrae, 66/1 Freedom Rose.
usual Pudding -8th 20
speculative Onelastfling – 6th 32.28

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720 lingfield Betting forecast: 5/2 Johnny Splash, 4/1 Rylee Mooch, 9/2 Clearing, 7/1 Caesars Gift, 7/1 Mossgo, 7/1 Senator Bong, 16/1 My Time, 16/1 Rosie Prospects.
usual Caesars gift  – 5th 11
speculative Rosie Prospects – 4th 38

Note – Rosie Prospects is a bit more speculative than I would normally choose. But note that there are no real “outsiders here” so, at 16/1 in the betting forecast, the horse is not really an “outsider”.

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750 lingfield Betting forecast: 7/4 Windshield, 4/1 Chesil Beach, 5/1 Epsom Salts, 5/1 Underwritten, 8/1 Galiotto, 14/1 Wasabi, 16/1 Rollin ´n Tumblin, 33/1 Oakbank, 50/1 Storm Of Choice.
usual Galliotto  – 7th 41.77
speculative Wasabi – 6th 20

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810 newmarket Betting forecast: 13/8 Connecticut, 7/2 Warrior Of Light, 5/1 Missed Call, 8/1 Xinbama, 10/1 Buckland, 14/1 Linguine, 16/1 Buthelezi, 20/1 Thecornishcowboy, 25/1 Lady Of Yue.
usual Xinbama  – 2nd 8.12 win and 1.62 place
speculative Linguine – 3rd 18.28 win and 2.49 place

I needed the 810 newmarket 2nd to win to create a breakeven. Both placed alas. These were races where the market leaders dominated generally. 1st and 2nd Lingfield were 1st and 2nd in the betting forecast which makes it extremely hard to make a profit as we are fighting for a single place. The big profit comes when these market leaders falter, and they do!

Today

 205 ascot Betting forecast: 6/4 Muraaqaba, 11/4 Osaila, 11/2 Goldcrest, 8/1 Explosive Lady, 9/1 Accipiter, 11/1 Tongue Twista, 20/1 Rosie´s Premiere, 25/1 Pastoral Girl.
usual Goldcrest
speculative Tongue Twista

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350 ascot Betting forecast: 9/4 Telescope, 5/2 Taghrooda, 9/2 Eagle Top, 5/1 Magician, 12/1 Mukhadram, 12/1 Trading Leather, 20/1 Romsdal, 200/1 Leitir Mor.
usual Magician
speculative Trading leather

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340 newcastle Betting forecast: 5/2 Madrasa, 4/1 Rayadour, 6/1 Longshadow, 6/1 Miss Macnamara, 8/1 Flying Power, 8/1 Jan Smuts, 10/1 Bowdler´s Magic, 10/1 Renegotiate.
usual Longshadow
speculative Jan Smuts

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645 salisbury Betting forecast: 7/2 Joyous, 9/2 Dark Lane, 9/2 Picc Of Burgau, 6/1 Lead A Merry Dance, 6/1 Silken Poppy, 7/1 Picansort, 8/1 Only Ten Per Cent, 12/1 My Meteor, 50/1 Paradise Child.
usual Picc Of Burgau
speculative Only Ten Per Cent