Racing Testing LabHere is an excerpt of April’s article on “creating value from short prices”
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 – lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
Yesterday
Malabar won 8/15, Belle et Bete won 9/10, Gwafa won 5/6
Today
600 Lingfield
Betting forecast: 4/11 Elizona, 6/1 Racing´s Dream,
The favourite has won the last 4 runnings of this race.
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250 Wexford
Betting forecast: 10/11 Calorie, 5/4 Bogardus, 8/1 Princess Tamay.
3 horses and 2 places
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Yesterday’s Results
915AM – Mikhail Kukushkin v Egor Gerasimov – 1.18 Mik – 48th v 228th – LOST 3 SETS
10am – Pauline Parmentier v Elina Svitolina – 1.29 Elina – 95th v 37th – WON 2 SETS
10am – Shuai Peng v Qiang Wang – 1.26 Shau – 50th v 181st – WON 2 SETS
11am – Kyle Edmund v Blaz Kavcic – 1.19 Blaz – 267th v 81st – LOST 2 SETS
130pm – Elias Ymer v David Goffin – 1.18 Goffin – 286th v 87th – WON 2 SETS
430pm – Lukas Rosol v Marin Cilic – 1.29 marin – 43rd v 22nd 0-2 H2H – WON 2 SETS
7pm – Fabio Fognini v Borna Coric – 1.21 Fabio – 20th v 230th – WON 3 SETS
TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Today’s possible selections – Please note that these times seem to be indicative only. It is extremely frustrating when I’m doing my trebles, having to wait until some hours after the allotted time for the match to start.
11AM – Pedja Krstin v David Goffin – 1.12 Goffin – 258th v 87th
1pm – Jarkko Nieminen v Giovanni Lapentti – 1.17 Jarkko – 54th v not sure of ranking
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Yesterday
5pm – Levadia Tallinn v FC Infonet – 1.19 home – LOST 2-3
715pm – Germany U19 v Ukraine U19 – 1.38 home WON 2-0
745pm – Galway FC v Cobh Ramblers – 1.26 home -WON 4-1
today
6pm – FC Wiener Neustadt v Red Bull Salzburg – 1.17 away
730pm – Longford v Waterford – 1.27 home
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SHORTLIST
Yesterday
7pm – Fabio Fognini v Borna Coric – 1.21 Fabio – 20th v 230th – Fognoni completely bombed at shorter odds than this last time, so may have attitude problems. This is perhaps not a nailed on bet, but look at the gap in the rankings!
Try to get your treble up before this one becomes a part of it!! WON
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5pm – Levadia Tallinn v FC Infonet – 1.19 home -LOST 2-3
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Today
A poor day today
6pm – FC Wiener Neustadt v Red Bull Salzburg – 1.17 away – maybe the odds will rise to 1.20 , I’m not sure. Red Bull have been scoring 4+ goals in head to heads so although this is the first match of the season, they are expected to continue.
600 Lingfield
Betting forecast: 4/11 Elizona, 6/1 Racing´s Dream,
The favourite has won the last 4 runnings of this race.
This would have to be win only. This favourite has come 2nd twice and in a race where the last 4 favourites have won, we have a good shot at a win here for one part of the treble.
A really poor day selections wise.