Racing Testing Lab

Each way betting – a background

How do I go about my each-way selection process? In this post you will see a list of races which all have one thing in common. They are all 8/9 runner races as this is the shortest field which pays out for horses finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd .

By selecting an 8/9 runner race, you immediately put the probabilities of selecting a horse to finish in the top 3, in your favour.

Remember that your objective is to find a horse to finish in the top 3, with a winner being an obvious bonus.

1) we select only from 8/9 runner races

2) we make 2 selections. The first is called the Usual selection . A usual selection is a horse who is near the head of the betting forecast and who looks like an obvious selection to finish in the first 3 at least. We then make a speculative selection. This horse is likely to be a bigger price and is selected because horse racing is inherently unpredictable and races are won by other -than the market leaders We want to be able to cover a bigger priced horse who might surprise.

On the 3rd May 2014, I selected just such a horse, Run with Pride, and he won at Betfair SP odds of 142, and paid 12 to place.

3) which brings me to my 3rd point. Use Betfair Sp for your win and place only bets . Why? Well Run with Pride won at odds of 142 using Betfair SP, and returned at only 33/1 with the bookmakers.

This is the background behind the selections you will find here.

Make sure you check the place only terms at www.betfair.com. Some races may only pay out on 2 places. We want to see 3 places as it increases our probabilities of getting a return.

Yesterday

525 leopardstown Betting forecast: 4/7 John F Kennedy, 13/2 Prologue, 8/1 Hall Of Fame, 8/1 Innish Man, 12/1 Order Of St George, 14/1 Ernest Shackleton, 14/1 Solomon Northup, 66/1 Dark Matter, 66/1 Elm Grove.
usual Innish Man  – 7th 21
speculative Ernest Shackleton – 6th 50

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535 limerick Betting forecast: 11/8 Jimmy Shan, 13/8 Tulsa Jack, 9/2 Railway Benefit, 16/1 Jerusalem Bells, 20/1 Joshella, 25/1 Macro, 50/1 Ginger Quill, 50/1 Rosaleens Choice.
usual Railway Benefir  – 3rd 11.5 win and 2.12 place
speculative Joshella – 4th 20.77 win and 3.7 place

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340 sandown Betting forecast: 5/2 Alex Vino, 4/1 Carnevale, 5/1 Qanan, 6/1 Dandy, 13/2 Epic Battle, 10/1 All Talk N No Do, 14/1 Tinshu, 16/1 Vainglory, 20/1 Robin Hood.
usual Epic Battle  – 3rd 9.4 win and 1.78 place
speculative Tinshu – non runner

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415 sandown Betting forecast: 2/1 Conquerant, 11/4 Hesbaan, 4/1 Esteban, 9/2 Tercel, 10/1 Steve Rogers, 14/1 Arquimedes, 50/1 Stilla Afton, 100/1 Praise N Glory.
usual Tercel  – 1st 6.4 win and 1.65 place
speculative Arquimedes – 6th 71.21

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350 yarmouth Betting forecast: 5/2 Sutton Sid, 7/2 Loucal, 9/2 Bethan, 11/2 Tunnel Tiger, 10/1 Marphilly, 10/1 Nifty Kier, 12/1 Bison Grass, 12/1 Mr Chocolate Drop, 25/1 Perseverent Pete.
usual Tunnel Tiger  – 2nd 5.48 win and 1.89 place
speculative Nifty Kier – 1st 12.97 win and 3.42 place

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535 yarmouth Betting forecast: 4/5 Refuse Colette, 6/1 Ecliptic Sunrise, 13/2 Almax, 9/1 High Tone, 10/1 Danzoe, 10/1 Gung Ho Jack, 20/1 Notgordonitsrodger, 25/1 Irish Boy, 33/1 Loma Mor.
usual Almax  – non runner
speculative Gung Ho Jack – 3rd 8.58 win and 1.78 place

A reasonable day yesterday, nice to see the 2 winners complemented by 4 horses placing ( and thus preserving the stakes). The massive priced winners will come in races like the 525 Leopardstown race where we have a really short favourite. We just need that favourite to flop and we will get a nice priced winner/placer

Today

515 lingfield Betting forecast: 4/5 Prize Exhibit, 3/1 Artfilly, 8/1 Pudding, 10/1 Its Lady Mary, 16/1 Onelastfling, 16/1 White Vin Jan, 50/1 Lady Ballantrae, 66/1 Freedom Rose.
usual Pudding
speculative Onelastfling

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720 lingfield Betting forecast: 5/2 Johnny Splash, 4/1 Rylee Mooch, 9/2 Clearing, 7/1 Caesars Gift, 7/1 Mossgo, 7/1 Senator Bong, 16/1 My Time, 16/1 Rosie Prospects.
usual Caesars gift
speculative Rosie Prospects

Note – Rosie Prospects is a bit more speculative than I would normally choose. But note that there are no real “outsiders here” so, at 16/1 in the betting forecast, the horse is not really an “outsider”.

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750 lingfield Betting forecast: 7/4 Windshield, 4/1 Chesil Beach, 5/1 Epsom Salts, 5/1 Underwritten, 8/1 Galiotto, 14/1 Wasabi, 16/1 Rollin ´n Tumblin, 33/1 Oakbank, 50/1 Storm Of Choice.
usual Galliotto
speculative Wasabi

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810 newmarket Betting forecast: 13/8 Connecticut, 7/2 Warrior Of Light, 5/1 Missed Call, 8/1 Xinbama, 10/1 Buckland, 14/1 Linguine, 16/1 Buthelezi, 20/1 Thecornishcowboy, 25/1 Lady Of Yue.
usual Xinbama
speculative Linguine