Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Friday 24th July 2015

Each way betting – a background How do I go about my each-way selection process? In this post you will see a list of races which all have one thing in common. They are all 8/9 runner races as this is the shortest field which pays out for horses finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd . By selecting an 8/9 runner race, you immediately put the probabilities of selecting a horse to finish in the top 3, in your favour. Remember that your objective is to find a horse to finish in the top 3, with a winner being an obvious bonus. 1) we select only from 8/9 runner races 2) we make 2 selections. The first is called the Usual selection .

A usual selection is a horse who is near the head of the betting forecast and who looks like an obvious selection to finish in the first 3 at least. We then make a speculative selection. This horse is likely to be a bigger price and is selected because horse racing is inherently unpredictable and races are won by other -than the market leaders We want to be able to cover a bigger priced horse who might surprise.

On the 3rd May 2014, I selected just such a horse, Run with Pride, and he won at Betfair SP odds of 142, and paid 12 to place. 3) which brings me to my 3rd point. Use Betfair Sp for your win and place only bets . Why? Well Run with Pride won at odds of 142 using Betfair SP, and returned at only 33/1 with the bookmakers.

This is the background behind the selections you will find here. Make sure you check the place onlyterms at www.betfair.com. Some races may only pay out on 2 places. We want to see 3 places as it increases our probabilities of getting a return.

Yesterday

 

550 leop Betting forecast: 6/4 General Macarthur, 9/2 Ceol Na Nog, 6/1 Whiskey Zulu, 7/1 Corstorphine, 7/1 Unicorn, 8/1 Restive, 16/1 Libyan Peace, 25/1 Tasty Ginger.
usual Ceol Na Nog  – 6th 4.5
speculative Restive – 3rd 15.82 win and 3.3 place

3rd and 4th in the Betting forecast came 1st and 2nd so we did get the favourite beaten but I selected the wrong horse in the 2nd in the Betting forecast.
650 leop Betting forecast: 13/8 Alice Springs, 2/1 Tanaza, 6/1 Turret Rocks, 10/1 Madame Thunder, 16/1 Prove The Point, 20/1 Miss Gossip, 20/1 Planchart, 20/1 Way To My Heart, 25/1 Santa Monica.
usual Turret Rocks 3rd 9.21 win and 2.08 place
speculative Madame Thunder – 5th 25

The front 2 in the betting nicked 1st place and 2nd place leaving us fighting a losing battle as there was only 1 place available.We have to suck up the losses. It is in races like this that we got that 8/1 winner the other day and my 125/1 winner earlier in my each way career! When the front 2 fail to place, it’s pay day!

605 limerick Betting forecast: 11/8 Antilope Du Seuil, 3/1 What A Jewel, 4/1 Duckweed, 9/2 Thanks For Tea, 10/1 Jesmond Lodge, 33/1 Princess Lir, 50/1 Three Oscars, 112/1 The Brock Inn.
usual What a Jewel  – nose and a neck 3rd 9.6 win and 2.44 place
speculative Jesmond Lodge – 5th 35.55

Bad luck in running robbed us of a 9.6 odds winner ! What a pity!
330 sandown Betting forecast: 9/4 Fireglow, 4/1 Raaqy, 6/1 Bahaarah, 13/2 Alinstante, 13/2 Chiringuita, 7/1 Aneesah, 12/1 Flying Empress, 14/1 Dessertoflife.
usual Bahaarah  – non runner
speculative Aneesah – 7th 9.11

Frustrating to get a non runner.
230 wolves Betting forecast: 2/1 Handbell, 3/1 Jillanar, 3/1 Secret Palace, 6/1 Queen Zain, 14/1 Willow Spring, 20/1 Approaching Star, 20/1 Deacon´s Lady, 33/1 Henrietta Dancer.
usual Secret Palace  -4th 11.55
speculative Willow Spring – 7th 46.83

1st and 2nd in the betting forecast came 1st and 2nd today which does not help as we are fighting for that last 3rd place.

315 worcester Betting forecast: 4/9 Ennistown, 9/2 Black Iceman, 11/2 Trader Jack, 20/1 Bumble Bay, 20/1 The Western Force, 20/1 Wintour Leap, 25/1 Beedee, 66/1 Prince Of Silver.
usual Black Iceman  – 4th 11.76
speculative Trader Jack – 3rd 25 win and 2.27 place

Ennistown won and we wanted the shortie to under perform. Nice to get a 24/1 placer but the payout for the place at Betfair’s Place market disappointed.

Today

540 downroyal Betting forecast: 7/4 Catwilldo, 9/2 Acroleina, 6/1 Missile Command, 13/2 Rigid Rock, 8/1 Boughtforasong, 8/1 Staccato Wolf, 8/1 Well Done Me, 14/1 Western Seaboard, 25/1 Serious.
usual Rigid Rock
speculative Well Done Me

4th in the betting for me today and the last horse before the double figure odds horses.
710 nmkt Betting forecast: 7/4 Atlantic Affair, 4/1 Dream Tune, 4/1 Robins Pearl, 6/1 Must Have, 10/1 Mistamel, 12/1 Jonnie Skull, 25/1 Dynamite Dixie, 25/1 Norwegian Reward.
usual Robins Pearl
speculative Mistamel

3rd in the betting for me, it could have been Dream Tune. Mistamel is the speculative . A hope the 2 25/1 shots don’t place so we have a 6 horse race for 3 places.
240 uttoxeter Betting forecast: 9/4 Sir Note, 9/2 Umoristic, 5/1 Auto Mac, 6/1 Osorios Trial, 7/1 The Yank, 10/1 Sleeping City, 14/1 Ovilia, 16/1 Northern Oscar.
usual Umoristic
speculative Sleeping City

2nd in the betting and a hope he can take advantage if 1st in the betting does not perform. I opted for Sleeping City here as the 3rd last horse in the betting.
730 york Betting forecast: Evs Crystal Zvezda, 3/1 Pamona, 6/1 French Dressing, 8/1 Sound Reflection, 16/1 My Spirit, 16/1 Tea Blossom, 33/1 Hundi, 50/1 Russian Punch.
usual Pamona
speculative Sound Reflection

A listed race so a worry the front 2 dominate proceedings. 2 clear outsiders reduce the competitive field and I think at 3/1 Pamona could place at reasonable odds. 4 horses under 16/1 and I went for the biggest priced as a Speculative selection.