Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Monday 23rd March 2015

A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

 Yesterday

11 201 down Betting forecast: 11/8 Salsa Sensation, 5/2 Utmost Zeal, 5/1 Burton Hall, 1st 1.06
8 525 down Betting forecast: 11/8 Lip Service, 13/8 John Monash, 10/1 Ballybryan, 6th 1.04
6 305 mr Betting forecast: 7/4 Mac Le Couteau, 3/1 Sir Lynx, 5/1 Leney Cottage, 5th 1.73

 Today

6 215 taunton Betting forecast: 11/10 While You Wait, 3/1 Conducting, 5/1 Stow,
7 350 taunton Betting forecast: 11/8 Mister Grez, 15/8 Mount Shamsan, 11/2 Do We Like Him,
5 510 wolves Betting forecast: 8/11 Amaze Me, 11/4 Sammy´s Warrior, 6/1 Art Looker,