A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

Yesterday

3 300 catterick Betting forecast: 4/5 Montsarrat, 15/8 Hibou, 9/2 Cotton Camera. 2 horse race
4 330 catterick Betting forecast: 10/11 Johnny B Goode, 7/4 Kyrenia Castle, 6/1 Baron Spikey, 2nd 1.16
10 320 lingfield Betting forecast: 11/8 Important Message, 7/4 Pure Line, 11/2 Fern Owl, 1st 1.81 1.11

Today

9 650 leop Betting forecast: 13/8 Alice Springs, 2/1 Tanaza, 6/1 Turret Rocks,
7 725 leop Betting forecast: 5/4 Sanus Per Aquam, 9/4 Deauville, 9/2 Taking Libertys,
5 630 newbury Betting forecast: 4/6 Welford, 2/1 Auxiliary, 10/1 Clive Clifton,