Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Wednesday 23rd July 2014

With this post, I am looking at a number of laying strategies, and these tend to be focussed upon the all-weather. The first strategy is laying penalised horses on the all-weather. These horses tend to be “anchored” by an increase in weight and over time have proven to be profitable when we lay 6lb and 12lb penalty handicap winners..

Laying favourites in Irish bumpers is simplicity itself. What we do is, well, lay favourites in Irish National Hunt flat races.

I wrote an article on lay Ladders in May 2014’s edition of What Really Wins Money. This lay ladder article uses the lay selections found below in the”Lay the Favourite on the All Weather in Maidens Claimers and Sellers” section below. It has proven to be very profitable long-term. But if loss retrieval is not your thing ( and it won’t be for some because losses can be large, despite long, long winning runs), then leave this alone.

The last section is “Back the favourite in the worse performing races on the all weather.” This section needs www.stakingmachine.com or a knowledge of “rolling doubles ” staking plan. You can read about this staking plan at http://www.thestakingmachine.com/rolling_doubles.php

—————————————————————————————————————————————————-

All-weather racing is very quiet at the moment. But I want to prepare you for the upcoming season which will be with us quicker than you think, so I’ll continue with these postings despite the dearth of selections.

Laying penalised horses on the all-weather. It seems these horses are vulnerable when given a 6 lb or 12 lb penalty

Yesterday

None

Today

None

—————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Lay the Favourite in Irish Bumpers .

A bumper race is a National Hunt Flat Race. They are found in jumps meetings and usually are the last race of the day. These races has “flat race” or a derivative thereof in the title and laying the favourite to level stakes has proven to be very profitable over time.

Yesterday –

850 ballinrobe 1st 1.57

We don’t lay joint fav

ourites as it doubles the chances of a horse winning.

Today

None

—————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Lay the Favourite on the All Weather in Maidens Claimers and Sellers

The idea here is to focus on races on the All-weather ( you will see an AW in brackets at www.racingpost.com cards whenever there is an all-weather meeting.) I thought that targeting favourites in traditionally tough races ( maidens – horses who are starting out in their careers and have never won can be inconsistent), claimers ( open to upsets) and sellers( poor horses running and then being sold on) would produce a reasonable profit over time. This has proved the case so far.

I may have found an excellent staking plan to accompany this strategy. I’ll flesh it out , but basically it involves a “lay ladder” i.e. we look to retrieve losses if a horse wins as well as a target profit. The betting cycle is only 3.

Yesterday

none

We don’t lay co-favourites for obvious reasons.

I don’t include joint favourites when laying. Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 qualifying races. A run of winners most unwelcome but over the long term I think we’ll see a layer’s profit.

Today

mdn 200 lingfield
clm 230 lingfield
mndn 300 lingfield

I’ll be updating results for this soon to see if the strike rate for layers continues. Mdn = Maiden Slr = Seller clm = claimer

—————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Back the favourite in the worse performing races on the all weather.

Thisis actually making a profit as a backing system with a very specialist staking plan and backing all selections priced at 3.5 and under.

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/rolling_doubles.php is the staking plan and very interesting it is too. It seems perfectly suited to favourites

This staking plan and backing idea seems to be producing the goods!

Yesterday

None

Today

None