I wrote an article for my eletter on this subject, focussing on Banker Bets and showing you how we can profit from them.

I’ll list some apparent “bankers” in this post, and time permitting, will try to do this daily. I try to look for 1.1 odds or higher. The goal is to win back your initial stake and bank that immediately, then play on, banking profits every £10 or so.

This is not a strategy where I’m trying to create the biggest odds returns. I want a “banker”, a bet which is obvious.

Bankers and Blowouts – the mini-DRT angle.

www.drt.club is my trading service where I do all of my football research. I have noticed that these bankers, whilst sometimes frustrating us with score draws and throwing away 2-0 leads, rarely lose matches. How can you profit? Well are you familiar with football trading? That is, reacting to how a match unfolds in-play? If you are then you would have taken on faith the fact that these bankers rarely lose, and layed Dundee in play , when they were 1-3 up to bankers Aberdeen. Final score ( as you see below), 3-3. How about more frustrating bar stewards like Club Brugge the other day against Mechelen.

Staying with our premis that Bankers rarely lose, what could you have done if Mechelen ( as they did) take the lead? Lay Mechelen! Better yet, what if the match was still 0-1 coming to 90 minutes? Lay Mechelen at lower odds for potentially greater profit! You know what happened next, I am sure. Club Brugge equalised in the 90th minute.

I have already mentioned the idea of laying a team 2-0 up, to lock in profit. Consider the above elements too , in order to maximise the premis that Bankers rarely lose.

Just an added note regarding staking. If the strike rate remains as high as it is, I would recommend staying with level stakes, but re-calculating every 20 bets  which would have produced a bank of 747 pounds from an initial 100 pounds in November. Increasing the frequency to re-calculating 10% of the betting bank every 10 bets does extract a little more profit.

Plenty to ponder there. If you increase the % of bank bet, of course, then things really start getting exciting ( but ever the cautious, I’d have to warn you that it would be a big fall from grace if we hit a losing run)

At this juncture, level stakes is the only realistic staking option as some bets kick off at the same time. If you wanted other options, then select one bet at one time, as long as the next bet began after the 1st bet ended. This way you could employ “reactive” staking.

By selecting one bet for a specific time, the number of bets reduces from 225 to 137. Is there any advantage in reactive staking? Let’s take a look.

 

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php is the staking plan of interest, betting 20% of the bank ( as the assumed strike rate will continue to be high), turned 100 pounds on 22 November 2014 into 1356.48 as of today. ( as you can tell I don’t have apound sign on my keyboard lol).

We can employ a higher risk staking I think with assumed higher strike rate strategies. If doing , I would strongly urge you to withdraw initial seed money once the bank has doubled to allow you to employ these higher risk strategies using OPM  – other people’s money.

Yesterday

Ferrer won 2 sets to nil at odds of about 1.2 which was perfectly acceptable for a 1.04 shot,  exactly as per the research and Nadal won in the match odds. Kerber did not play .

I was happy with the start to the tennis yesterday although I didn’t put them up as official bets. I’ll try and do these when we have a big tournament.

Today

HJK Helsinki are away to HIFK with only 2 matches into the Finnish League season. In the league cup in March, HJK beat HIFK 0-2 with 2 2nd half goals. It looks emphatic enough but with HJK drawing 1-1 at home latest at about the same odds as today’s 1.4, perhaps it’s a tad early to be putting them up as bankers.

Elsewhere it’s the Europa League quarter finals. There are no bankers here, but the Napoli v Wolfsburg match looks interesting from an over 2.5 goals perspective. With Napoli 1-4 up from the first leg, Napoli can still go through losing 0-3 tonight. There is need from Wolfsburg to get on the scoresheet and fast which really should open the match up.

10am – Kei Nishikori v Santiago Giraldo  – 1.12 Kei –  5th v 31st in the ATP rankings, it’s 6-1 to Nishikori in head to heads, including an emphatic 6-2, 6-2 this time last year in the same tournament.We’ve had 5 consecutive sets to nil wins for Nishikori which brings the 2-0 set betting into play . 1.44 for the 2-0 set betting is probably down to the fact that this is the 3rd round in Barcelona and matches will get tougher.

1230pm – Elias Ymer v David Ferrer  – 1.02 Ferrer – 204th in the world plays 8th and really Ferrer should brush this guy aside with the minimum of fuss.

Ymer has had 2 2-1 wins in Barcelona and impressed against Nick Kyrgios who is a good player on his day.There are no head to heads between these 2 players which can always produce a surprise ( Coric v Murray springs to mind. Some players just take a while to “suss out” if there are no head to heads.)

1245pm – Mikhail Youzhny v Gael Monfils  – 1.25 Monfils –  57th v 15th in the ATP rankings, and surprisingly, Youzhny has a 3-0 head to head record. These came back in 2005, 2007 and 2010.

In Monte Carlo, Monfils beat the likes of Dolgopolov, Federer, and Dimitrov 2-0 , losing to Berdych in 2 sets.

Youzhny went out in the first round on clay at Monte Carlo 0-2 and won in the 1st round of this tournament BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy 2-1 v Copil.

Monfils is a really inconsistent player, the Stoke City of the ATP tour but if he is as motivated as he was in the Monte Carlo event, he will have to much for Youzhny today. The head to heads I think are too far away and recent form supercedes the head to heads.

215pm – Fabio Fognini v Rafael Nadal  – 1.11 Nadal – 4-1 to Rafa in head to heads.

30th v 4th in the ATP Rankings. Fognoni is inconsistent. 0-2 set losses to Mannarino, Jack Sock, and Dimitrov.Wins recently v Janowicz and 2-1 v Rublev in the 2nd round in Barcelona. Nadal has only recently lost on the clay to Djokovic. He beat in-form Isner and Ferrer in Monte Carlo.

Fognoni is a bit of an unknown for me but he looks inconsistent and has lost in straight sets to lower ranked players.

230pm – Marina Melnikova v Ekaterina Makarova  – 1.11 Eka – 194th v 8th WTA ranked . There are no head to heads between these 2 players.  As I said before, it’s always a risk as the strong favourite may just meet a type she finds difficult to play against despite the rankings.

If I were using these as bankers ( and I’m just experimenting at the moment as the football season winds down), I would shortlist Kei Nishikori, likely 2 sets but as this is the 3rd round, I’d only focus on match odds, and I would take a risk on Gael Monfils as his Monte Carlo form was quite superb and is playing on clay again today. Ignore the head to heads, they are too long ago.  Ferrer should win with real ease in 2 sets as should Makarova, but I see time and again these top players struggle against players they haven’t met before .

Let’s see if I can continue the run.

NO OFFICIAL BETS TODAY