A 100% strike rate I think yesterday with the shortlist of the shortlist . Those of you with April’s What Really Wins Money, this is my look at finding bets for April’s article.

 Your feedback would be very welcome.

Here is an excerpt of April’s article on “creating value from short prices”

Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.

1)Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.

2)Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.

1/5 shot is 1.20  – lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.

1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.

1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

 

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.

I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

 

RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

A 100% strike rate of placed only horses yesterday for my shortlist.

 

615 Southwell

 

Betting forecast: 8/11 Queen Olivia, 100/30 Dewala, 7/1 Nellie Forbush, 10/1 Banreenahreenkah, 10/1 Fairyinthewind.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It’s hard to oppose QUEEN OLIVIA, who is 5lb ahead of the handicapper after her very creditable second in a stronger race than this over C&D a week ago. Dewala is evidently versatile trip-wise and may fare best of the rest.[Chris Wilson]

 

Queen Olivia ” hard to oppose”. 2 places only in this Mares Handicap Hurdle – a very illiquid place only betting market on Betfair ( and no surprise as the race is not for another 12 hours)

 

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745 Southwell

Betting forecast: 9/4 Bob´s Legend, 6/1 Crookstown, 6/1 Theredballoon, 8/1 Bold Raider, 8/1 Bold Tara, 8/1 Colebrooke, 10/1 Troufion, 12/1 Uno Valoroso, 16/1 Surf And Turf, 20/1 The Society Man, 33/1 Not Another Monday, 100/1 Frosty Dawn.

 

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This can go to BOB’S LEGEND, who won a seller on his debut for Michael Appleby last month and is due another 3lb rise in the weights after going close in a handicap ten days ago. Theredballoon was comfortably held over 2m on easy ground last time but can better that form on a sound surface over this longer trip and is second choice. Colebrooke is well handicapped if Dan Skelton can coax him back to form.[Chris Wilson]

 

Bob’s Legend a price gapper here but really a conditional Jockey’s handicap hurdle. Can we trust the conditionals? As above I have trouble gauging the market with nearly 14 hours until race time.

 

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455 Taunton

Betting forecast: 9/4 Tiradia, 7/1 Bach On Tow, 7/1 Sea Island Pearl, 8/1 Heurtevent, 10/1 Sun Quest, 12/1 Crackerjack, 12/1 Cruise In Style, 12/1 Hope Point, 14/1 Chankillo, 14/1 Midnight Thomas, 20/1 Gizzit, 20/1 Maxdelas, 25/1 Karl Marx, 25/1 Kruseman, 33/1 Sarahs Doll.

 

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIRADIA should shed his maiden status if confirming the improvement he showed when clear second behind a much higher-rated rival in a Kempton novice last week. He is due to go up in the weights in future handicaps and, with Tony McCoy taking over, surely this is the day he will break his duck. Last year’s fourth Bach On Tow needs considering if the ground doesn’t ease, while Sea Island Pearl and Midnight Thomas look potential improvers

 

A big price gapper here in this 15 runner handicap hurdle has come 3322 in his last 4 runnings and has up-and-coming youngster Tony McCoy to assist. A big price gapper priced currently at 1.63 to place which is suspiciously high for me given the jockey and the price gap. As I keep repeating, I am at a disadvantage with this message being written so early in the day

 

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555 Taunton

Betting forecast: 4/9 Kings Bandit, 100/30 King Edmund, 16/1 Geton Xmoor, 20/1 Inside Out, 25/1 Capitol Gain, 25/1 Driving Well, 25/1 Harriet´s Ark, 25/1 Minister Of Mayhem, 25/1 Nowweareseven, 33/1 The Snappy Poet, 66/1 Foolsandorses, 100/1 Gartan Boy.

 

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KINGS BANDIT has a big penalty to carry but the competition has cut up badly and he should be able to defy it over a trip which should not pose too many problems. Multiple winning chaser King Edmund looks best of his rivals but beyond him, it is hard to know where to turn for a likely danger.[Emily Weber]

 

A novice’s hurdle here and an apparent 2 horse race! Is King Edmund the value here to place only. 1.17 to place only ( as a guide price) is more in keeping with I would expect. King Edmund is 1.31 and it would seem only a fall/ being pulled up/ unseating rider is the only thing to stop these 2 dominating this novice hurdle.

 

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630 Taunton

 

Betting forecast: 5/4 Cowards Close, 7/4 Beeves, 5/1 Gunna Be A Devil, 13/2 Fix It Right.

 

This is quite simply a 50/50 race. 4 runners here and 2 of these will place . Better to look nearer race time rather than 12 hours prior to race time

 

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TENNIS SHORT PRICES

 

All of the short priced players yesterday won their matches so you could have easily found a 1/3, 1/4 or 1/5 shot to make up your treble.

 

10am –  Dolgopolov v Montanes – 1.43 Dolg. Dolgopolov is a rare talent but an unpredictable one. He lost at Monaco recently but really on his day can beat the best. 22nd v 59th 1-0 to Dologopolov in head to heads in 2010

 

10am –  Klizan v Almagro – 1.27 Almagro – no head to heads, 107th v 20th

 

1115am –  Du Brown ( 1.2 ) v Gaio

 

1230pm –  Gabashvili v Ferrer( 1.06) -we should immediately look to the 2-0 Ferrer set betting odds in order to secure a 1/3, 1/4 , 1/5 bet  1.23 for 2-0 to Ferrer is interesting.  55th v 5th and 2-0 to Ferrer in head to heads , both wins in straight sets

 

1pm –  Goffin ( 1.1) v S Napolitano – 98th v 734th

 

215pm –  Nadal( 1.02 ) v A Ramos – as with Ferrer , Nadal to win in straight sets would be the call. 1-0 to Nadal in head to heads in straight sets 1.1 set betting a tad low.

 

330pm –  Dimitrov ( 1.32) v Vesely  – 16th v 79th No head to heads

 

FOOTBALL SHORTIES

Both of the football shorties yesterday won, although Rangers would have been a slight risk given the fact they have won League 2 by a country mile.

Fuller research can be found within my DRT service .

 

5pm – Shakhtar v Tavriya – 1.07 home – can these odds translate into goals? 4-0, 5-0 last 2 head to heads but Tavriya have only conceded 2 max away from home this season in the Ukraine.

 

530pm – Paris St-G v Evian TG – 1.22 home – PSG meet the first team to beat them this season in the game after their 2nd loss of the season. PSG have a game in hand and only 5 remaining this season. they must keep winning.  75% clean sheets at home and PSG tend to score 2 at least when they win

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SHORTLIST 

 

5pm – Shakhtar v Tavriya – 1.07 home – in order to increase the odds to the 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 we seek, look at Shakhtar to win at Halftime, Halftime/Fulltime, or over 2.5 goals

 

530pm – Paris St-G v Evian TG – 1.22 home – as with Jelena jancovic meeting a player who beat her before, so PSG meet a team who beat them before. I cannot see lightning striking twice so will have faith in PSG continuing to score 2 goals at least.

 

10am –  Klizan v Almagro – 1.27 Almagro – no head to heads, 107th v 20th  – a big gap in the rankings

 

1230pm –  Gabashvili v Ferrer( 1.06) -we should immediately look to the 2-0 Ferrer set betting odds in order to secure a 1/3, 1/4 , 1/5 bet  1.23 for 2-0 to Ferrer is interesting.  55th v 5th and 2-0 to Ferrer in head to heads , both wins in straight sets

 

1pm –  Goffin ( 1.1) v S Napolitano – 98th v 734th  – 2-0 sets would be around 1.2 but it’s illiquid at the moment.

 

455 Taunton – I need to see the market before deciding on Tirada. The place only price is alarmingly high as I write

 

555 Taunton – this looks a 2 horse race between Kings Bandit and King Edmund ( barring falls etc which can occur over the jumps). Too early to give you an accurate quote re the odds.

 

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SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

 

Potential bets for my 3 short priced accumulator today?

 

5pm – Shakhtar v Tavriya – 1.07 home  – HALFTIME win for Shakhtar might pay off  – slight risk as Tavriya are tight away from home but have conceded 9 in the 2 most recent head to heads

 

 

10am –  Klizan v Almagro – 1.27 Almagro – no head to heads, 107th v 20th  – a big gap in the rankings

 

1230pm –  Gabashvili v Ferrer( 1.06) -we should immediately look to the 2-0 Ferrer set betting odds in order to secure a 1/3, 1/4 , 1/5 bet  1.23 for 2-0 to Ferrer is interesting.  55th v 5th and 2-0 to Ferrer in head to heads , both wins in straight sets

 

1pm –  Goffin ( 1.1) v S Napolitano – 98th v 734th  – 2-0 sets would be around 1.2 but it’s illiquid at the moment.  A challenger tour event and 2 players I know little about. I would only be going via the rankings here . Top 100 v a player outside the top 700!!

 

555 Taunton – this looks a 2 horse race between Kings Bandit and King Edmund ( barring falls etc which can occur over the jumps). Too early to give you an accurate quote re the odds. Decision must be made nearer race time as I am at a great disadvantage writing nearly 12 hours prior.

 

Yesterday saw a 100% strike rate !