Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Saturday 22nd November 2014

A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

Yesterday

5 130 ascot Betting forecast: 13/8 Killala Quay, 2/1 Puffin Billy, 4/1 The Skyfarmer, 2nd and 5th 1.9
7 205 ascot Betting forecast: Evs Jolly´s Cracked It, 6/4 Clondaw Banker, 7/1 Wilberdragon, 3rd 1.25 1.25
7 910 dundalk Betting forecast: 5/4 Enzani, 7/4 Kadayma, 11/2 Intense Debate 2nd 1.53
8 1240 ffos las Betting forecast: 11/8 Missed Approach, 11/8 Vintage Vinnie, 5/1 Lewis, 1st 1.1
6 155 haydock Betting forecast: 7/4 The Brock Again, 5/2 Oscarteea, 11/2 Huff And Puff, 3rd 1.35
4 340 haydock Betting forecast: 11/8 Abidjan, 6/4 Midnight Shot, 7/2 Dean´s Walk, 1st 1.29

Today

9 245 gowran Betting forecast: 8/11 Ballycasey, 15/8 Moscow Mannon, 6/1 Mallowney,
5 1200 huntingdon Betting forecast: 11/10 Rhythm Star, 11/8 Cabaret Girl, 13/2 Eastern Calm,
9 1220 lingfield Betting forecast: 10/11 Hurricane Alert, 5/4 Shackled N Drawn, 10/1 Lamps Of Heaven,