Each way betting – a background

How do I go about my each-way selection process? In this post you will see a list of races which all have one thing in common. They are all 8/9 runner races as this is the shortest field which pays out for horses finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd .

By selecting an 8/9 runner race, you immediately put the probabilities of selecting a horse to finish in the top 3, in your favour.

Remember that your objective is to find a horse to finish in the top 3, with a winner being an obvious bonus.

1) we select only from 8/9 runner races

2) we make 2 selections. The first is called the Usual selection . A usual selection is a horse who is near the head of the betting forecast and who looks like an obvious selection to finish in the first 3 at least. We then make a speculative selection. This horse is likely to be a bigger price and is selected because horse racing is inherently unpredictable and races are won by other -than the market leaders We want to be able to cover a bigger priced horse who might surprise.

On the 3rd May 2014, I selected just such a horse, Run with Pride, and he won at Betfair SP odds of 142, and paid 12 to place.

3) which brings me to my 3rd point. Use Betfair Sp for your win and place only bets . Why? Well Run with Pride won at odds of 142 using Betfair SP, and returned at only 33/1 with the bookmakers.

This is the background behind the selections you will find here.

Make sure you check the place only terms at www.betfair.com. Some races may only pay out on 2 places. We want to see 3 places as it increases our probabilities of getting a return.

Yesterday

525 ayr Betting forecast: 5/2 Wor Lass, 7/2 Harrison´s Cave, 7/2 Rowlestone Lass, 6/1 Latin Rebel, 8/1 Grand Diamond, 10/1 Top Billing, 12/1 Father Shine, 33/1 Roc Fort.
usual Latin Rebel  – 4th 8.76
speculative Top Billing – 7th 18.32

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735 ballinrobe Betting forecast: 2/1 Annagh Haven, 5/2 She´s A Leader, 4/1 Res Ipsa Loquitur, 5/1 Mystic Lass, 6/1 Silverpockets, 25/1 Loughderg Princess, 33/1 Definite Response, 33/1 Yanna Hennay.
usual Mystic Lass  – 5th 7.88
speculative Silverpockets – 2nd 15 win and 3.65 place

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835 ballinrobe Betting forecast: 7/4 Killiney Court, 11/4 Steel King, 5/1 No Cash Flow, 6/1 Effernock Lad, 8/1 Punches Pious, 10/1 Island Villa, 14/1 Stoughan Cross, 50/1 Bachtobach.
usual Effernock Lad  – 4th 65.84
speculative Island Villa – 2nd 42.65 win and 3.56 place

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230 cartmel Betting forecast: 6/4 Cool Baranca, 7/1 Monita Bonita, 7/1 Stand Clear, 7/1 Tropenfeuer, 8/1 Catchthemoonlight, 8/1 Maggie Blue, 10/1 Epee Celeste, 14/1 Bow Fiddle, 33/1 Gilston Bay.
usual Stand Clear  – non runner
speculative Epee Celeste – 2nd 6.2 win and 1.81 place

Island Villa lost by 3/4 of a length and had both short priced market leaders either side of him. Had Island Villa won of course, the tone of this message would be completely different. As it is, I’m afraid history doesn’t reward us for near misses! 3 2nd places yesterday, along with the 13 odds head 2nd the other day is a collection of what might have beens! These need to be converted to wins!

Today

 720 ballinrobe Betting forecast: 5/4 Riverside City, 2/1 Grand Partner, 8/1 Eight Till Late, 10/1 Nevskij, 10/1 Up The Hill, 16/1 War Of The Pennys, 20/1 I Hear Trouble, 33/1 Crowley.
usual Up the Hill
speculative War of the Pennys

Note – this is a race with 2 strong favourites who might clog up the places, so a selection such as War of the Pennys has a poor probabilituy of placing if the front 2 dominate. BUT if one, or both of the front 2 falter, we have a great chance of nabbing a biggie. So a risky race to open with.

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610 carlisle Betting forecast: 4/5 Teruntum Star, 5/1 Chances Are, 6/1 Crystal Wish, 6/1 Signoret, 20/1 Poppy In The Wind, 20/1 Yukos Flyer, 25/1 Invincible Wish, 33/1 Ship Canal, 50/1 Ty Ty.
usual Crystal Wish
speculative Poppy in the wind

Note – traditionally the ideal race we should focus on. An odds on favourite, massive price gapper and 3 outsiders hopefully reduce the field to those left. Poppy in the wind is more speculative than I would normally choose. I expect the race to be dominated by the horses sub 20/1 in the betting forecast, but hey, you never know.

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200 musselburgh Betting forecast: 9/4 Testa Rossa, 4/1 Staffhoss, 5/1 Violent Velocity, 6/1 Ellaal, 8/1 Act Your Shoe Size, 8/1 Royal Straight, 16/1 Declamation, 16/1 Jordaura.
usual Ellaal
speculative Royal Straight

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400 muss Betting forecast: 5/2 Flash City, 7/2 Bunce, 4/1 Salvatore Fury, 6/1 Noodles Blue Boy, 8/1 Jumbo Steps, 10/1 Space Artist, 16/1 Perfect Blossom, 20/1 Gottcher.
usual Noodles Blue Boy
speculative Space Artist

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430 muss Betting forecast: 5/4 Maoi Chinn Tire, 7/2 La Bacouetteuse, 7/1 Strobe, 8/1 Voice From Above, 12/1 Claude Carter, 14/1 Sohcahtoa, 20/1 Jebulani, 20/1 Jim Tango.
usual Voice from above
speculative Claude Carter

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500 muss Betting forecast: 5/2 Running Reef, 4/1 Ixelles Diamond, 6/1 Live Dangerously, 6/1 Orwellian, 6/1 Shamaheart, 7/1 Mysterial, 10/1 Rioja Day, 33/1 Berbice.
usual Shamaheart
speculative Rioja day
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415 sthl Betting forecast: 6/4 Elsafeer, 4/1 Dark Energy, 5/1 Mubrook, 6/1 Air Chief, 6/1 Kayfton Pete, 6/1 Travis County, 50/1 Recway Lass, 66/1 Spithead.
usual Air chief
speculative Travis county