Racing Testing LabA quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.
Background
2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.
Follow these steps below
1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.
2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.
3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
Yesterday
9 455 newbury Betting forecast: 6/4 Twirling Magnet, 2/1 Harbour Court, 7/1 Pateese 1st 2.18 1.24
7 230 sedgefield Betting forecast: 7/4 Mad For Road, 5/2 Light The City, 5/1 Baraboy, 2nd 1.87
9 405 sedgefield Betting forecast: 4/5 Gone Forever, 11/8 Venue, 14/1 Warlu Way 2nd 1.07
Today
4 410 bangor Betting forecast: 1/3 Shantou Magic, 5/2 Askamore Darsi, 33/1 Westwire Toby.
7 445 bangor Betting forecast: 13/8 A Vos Gardes, 5/2 Foryourinformation, 9/2 Go Conquer,
5 340 fontwell Betting forecast: 7/4 Woodland Walk, 5/2 Jean Fleming, 9/2 Hi Note,
5 325 kelso Betting forecast: 13/8 Oscar Rock, 5/2 Oscar Fortune, 9/2 Gallery Exhibition
8 125 newbury Betting forecast: 13/8 King´s Tempest, 2/1 Hassle, 5/1 Centurius,
9 205 stratford Betting forecast: 4/6 Gold Present, 100/30 Eco Warrior, 13/2 Blackthorn Prince,