Racing Testing Lab

A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

Yesterday

5 115 qascot Betting forecast: 11/10 Irish Saint, 13/8 Puffin Billy, 5/1 Thomas Crapper 1st 1.51
19 135 fairyhouse Betting forecast: 4/5 Arbre De Vie, 11/4 Champoleon, 7/1 Celtic Nobility 1st 1.16
11 320 fairyhouse Betting forecast: 9/10 Stone Hard, 3/1 Three Stars, 8/1 Rock N Rhythm, 1st 1.17
6 130 haydock Betting forecast: 11/8 Bitofapuzzle, 13/8 The Pirate´s Queen, 5/1 Maybe Plenty, 2nd 1.34
6 1255 lingfield Betting forecast: 5/4 Percy Alleline, 13/8 Acclamate, 9/2 Prince Of Paris, 2nd 1.18
7 235 lingfield Betting forecast: 5/4 Baltic Knight, 6/4 Grendisar, 5/1 Energia Davos 1st 1.38
6 1210 newcastle Betting forecast: 8/11 Kingswell Theatre, 6/4 Tarlan, 16/1 Tomahawk Wood, 1st 1.09

Today

7 130 fakenham Betting forecast: 6/5 Bon Chic, 11/8 Haatefina, 12/1 Inca Dove,
5 300 fakenham Betting forecast: 6/4 Snowell, 2/1 Home For Tea, 6/1 Midnight Chorister,
8 330 fakenham Betting forecast: 6/4 Mr Grey, 5/2 Go Odee Go, 6/1 Gioia Di Vita,
10 340 lingfield Betting forecast: 6/4 Outrath, 3/1 Murray Mount, 5/1 Kay Sera
10 1220 thurles Betting forecast: 9/4 Black Zero, 3/1 Golden Ticket, 6/1 Easyondeye,