Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Tuesday 21st April 2015

I wrote an article for my eletter on this subject, focussing on Banker Bets and showing you how we can profit from them.

I’ll list some apparent “bankers” in this post, and time permitting, will try to do this daily. I try to look for 1.1 odds or higher. The goal is to win back your initial stake and bank that immediately, then play on, banking profits every £10 or so.

This is not a strategy where I’m trying to create the biggest odds returns. I want a “banker”, a bet which is obvious.

Bankers and Blowouts – the mini-DRT angle.

www.drt.club is my trading service where I do all of my football research. I have noticed that these bankers, whilst sometimes frustrating us with score draws and throwing away 2-0 leads, rarely lose matches. How can you profit? Well are you familiar with football trading? That is, reacting to how a match unfolds in-play? If you are then you would have taken on faith the fact that these bankers rarely lose, and layed Dundee in play , when they were 1-3 up to bankers Aberdeen. Final score ( as you see below), 3-3. How about more frustrating bar stewards like Club Brugge the other day against Mechelen.

Staying with our premis that Bankers rarely lose, what could you have done if Mechelen ( as they did) take the lead? Lay Mechelen! Better yet, what if the match was still 0-1 coming to 90 minutes? Lay Mechelen at lower odds for potentially greater profit! You know what happened next, I am sure. Club Brugge equalised in the 90th minute.

I have already mentioned the idea of laying a team 2-0 up, to lock in profit. Consider the above elements too , in order to maximise the premis that Bankers rarely lose.

Just an added note regarding staking. If the strike rate remains as high as it is, I would recommend staying with level stakes, but re-calculating every 20 bets  which would have produced a bank of 747 pounds from an initial 100 pounds in November. Increasing the frequency to re-calculating 10% of the betting bank every 10 bets does extract a little more profit.

Plenty to ponder there. If you increase the % of bank bet, of course, then things really start getting exciting ( but ever the cautious, I’d have to warn you that it would be a big fall from grace if we hit a losing run)

At this juncture, level stakes is the only realistic staking option as some bets kick off at the same time. If you wanted other options, then select one bet at one time, as long as the next bet began after the 1st bet ended. This way you could employ “reactive” staking.

By selecting one bet for a specific time, the number of bets reduces from 225 to 137. Is there any advantage in reactive staking? Let’s take a look.

 

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php is the staking plan of interest, betting 20% of the bank ( as the assumed strike rate will continue to be high), turned 100 pounds on 22 November 2014 into 1356.48 as of today. ( as you can tell I don’t have apound sign on my keyboard lol).

We can employ a higher risk staking I think with assumed higher strike rate strategies. If doing , I would strongly urge you to withdraw initial seed money once the bank has doubled to allow you to employ these higher risk strategies using OPM  – other people’s money.

Yesterday

 

5pm – Kayserispor v Boluspor – 1.37 home – 3-0

745pm – Dundalk v Galway Utd – 1.2 home – 3-0

745pm – St Patricks v Drogheda – 1.34 home – 0-4, 6-0, 2-3 – 2-2

St Pats were 2-1 up until a late penalty

No official bets yesterday. A pity as Kayserispor and Dundalk were emphatic.

Today

745pm – B Munich v Porto – 1.37 home – Need a 2-0 bare minimum to just stay in this match. The first match saw Porto win 3-1 – their first goal was a penalty so it puts a gloss on the scoreline. Bayern cannot afford to concede and must score. Enough for us? I would lay off at 2-0 up

745pm – Barcelona v Paris St-G – 1.41 home – Barca are 1-3 up. PSG need a 3-0 to go through here and I can’t quite see it. PSG are poor away from home and have conceded 3 and 2 in their last 2 away matches in the Champions League.

MK Dons and Preston are both battling for 2nd place in League One today but 2 0-0’s in their last 3 head to heads means 0-0 is inplay for MK Dons.

It is the Preston match which may interest me. 7 clean sheets in 7 head to heads in the league against Notts County means Preston only have to score. No win in 10 at home for Notts County.Notts County have drawn 5 in their last 6 matches.  They have only beaten 1 team at home v 18th and higher . They have lost all home matches v top 8 sides.

TODAY’S BANKERS

745pm – Bayern Munich v Porto – 1.37 home – Surely in their time of need Bayern will get the win they require and insist upon the clean sheet they require?

Preston would be next best here today but we saw with Bournemouth at shorter odds, that the pressure of the season can produce draws rather than much needed wins. The Preston match is certainly tradeable but that is what I would insist upon if Preston lead, given the number of draws. Notts County’s losses to all top 8 at home may be the clincher.

Over 2.5 goals has a chance for Barcelona’s match but it is not a banker as a 1-0, 2-0 will do them,

Just Bayern Munich for me then.