Racing Testing Lab

A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

 Yesterday

7 745 cork Betting forecast: 6/4 Sidra, 9/4 Xebec, 13/2 Siege Of Orleans, 3rd 1.27
13 200 hexham, Betting forecast: 7/4 Alto Des Mottes, 7/4 Definite Soldier, 5/1 Court Of Law, 1st and 2nd 1.5
8 410 hexham Betting forecast: 7/4 Ganbei, 15/8 Beggar´s Velvet, 4/1 Special Portrait, 3rd 1.42
9 220 kempton Betting forecast: 5/6 Mad Jack Mytton, 5/4 Nicolas Chauvin, 16/1 The Hon Mackinlay, 1st 1.1
8 330 kempton Betting forecast: 4/9 Taniokey, 9/4 Morello Royale, 25/1 Burgundy Betty, 2nd 1.08
8 500 kempton Betting forecast: 5/4 Merrion Square, 5/2 Tataniano, 11/2 Shrewd Investment, 2nd 1.22
5 210 ponte Betting forecast: Evs Tawakkol, 2/1 Black Magic, 6/1 Racing Venture, 2nd 1.67

 Today

6 440 brighton Betting forecast: 4/5 Taexali, 11/4 Jet Setting, 6/1 Mustn´t Grumble,
4 335 exeter Betting forecast: 4/6 New Street, 5/2 Lemony Bay, 5/1 Sir Frank Morgan,
5 140 ludlow Betting forecast: 4/6 Set The Trend, 6/4 Upsanddowns, 20/1 Are They Your Own,
6 415 ludlow Betting forecast: 11/8 Rockiteer, 13/8 Neverownup, 4/1 Joker Choker,