Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Thursday 20th November 2014

A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

Yesterday

8 1220 hexham Betting forecast: 7/4 Sirpertan, 15/8 Deep Resolve, 13/2 Bentons Lad, 1st 1.26
10 120 hexham Betting forecast: 2/1 Chieftain´s Choice, 2/1 It´s High Time, 13/2 Bennylicious 1st 1.19
6 110 warwick Betting forecast: 6/4 Coeur De Fou, 9/4 Merchant Of Milan, 5/1 The Flying Column, r and pu 2.08 2.46

Today

16 1225 thurles Betting forecast: 7/4 As De Ferbet, 5/2 Aerlite Supreme, 6/1 Drumlee,
6 335 thurles Betting forecast: Evs Bellshill, 13/8 Attribution, 4/1 Total Recall,