Racing Testing Lab

A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

 Yesterday

10 610 chelmsford Betting forecast: 9/4 Rock Charm, 11/4 Berrahri, 11/2 Caledonia Laird, 3rd 1.43
4 740 chelmsford Betting forecast: 6/4 Haines, 2/1 Shades Of Silver, 7/2 Noguchi, 1st 1.42
5 810 chelmsford Betting forecast: 15/8 Monein, 2/1 Rocky Rider, 9/2 Gentlemusic, 2nd 1.22
5 255 ludlow Betting forecast: 6/4 Diamond Tammy, 3/1 Crafty Roberto, 9/2 No Likey, 4th 1.92
9 330 ludlow Betting forecast: 5/4 Dewala, 2/1 There Is No Point, 6/1 Double Silver, 5th 1.37
15 440 ludlow Betting forecast: 11/10 Pacha Du Polder, 5/2 Earth Dream, 6/1 Hector´s Choice, 1st 1.18
9 545 ludlow Betting forecast: 6/4 Native Display, 3/1 Armchair Theatre, 9/2 For Good Measure, 6th and 7th 1.61
9 215 thurles Betting forecast: 2/1 Deano, 5/2 Third Opinion, 9/2 Native Que 2nd 1.25
15 505 thurles Betting forecast: 9/4 Annie Alainn, 7/2 Kilcross Boy, 7/1 Hannah´s Lane, pu 2.49

 Today

9 455 newbury Betting forecast: 6/4 Twirling Magnet, 2/1 Harbour Court, 7/1 Pateese
7 230 sedgefield Betting forecast: 7/4 Mad For Road, 5/2 Light The City, 5/1 Baraboy,
9 405 sedgefield Betting forecast: 4/5 Gone Forever, 11/8 Venue, 14/1 Warlu Way