Racing Testing Lab

With this post, I am looking at a number of laying strategies, and these tend to be focussed upon the all-weather. The first strategy is laying penalised horses on the all-weather. These horses tend to be “anchored” by an increase in weight and over time have proven to be profitable when we lay 6lb and 12lb penalty handicap winners..

Laying favourites in Irish bumpers is simplicity itself. What we do is, well, lay favourites in Irish National Hunt flat races.

I wrote an article on lay Ladders in May 2014’s edition of What Really Wins Money. This lay ladder article uses the lay selections found below in the”Lay the Favourite on the All Weather in Maidens Claimers and Sellers” section below. It has proven to be very profitable long-term. But if loss retrieval is not your thing ( and it won’t be for some because losses can be large, despite long, long winning runs), then leave this alone.

The last section is “Back the favourite in the worse performing races on the all weather.” This section needs www.stakingmachine.com or a knowledge of “rolling doubles ” staking plan. You can read about this staking plan at http://www.thestakingmachine.com/rolling_doubles.php

Handicap Top weights on the all-weather.

Laying handicap top weights ( not joint top weights) has been a profitable long term endeavour. I lay below the odds of 10. We do occasionally hit a big priced winner but it seems that the lost liability is negated quickly thanks to the consistent stream of winning lays. I post an update for the month in What Really Wins Money newsletter.

Yesterday

610 dundalk jacob’s well 7th 5.27
740 dundalk fastidious 5th 4.8
810 dundalk waterloo sunrise 13th 27.85
840 dundalk paddy the celeb 5th 50.23
1200 sthl falcoln’s reign 4th 6.73
210 sthl rita’s boy 2nd 2.84
320 sthl bognor 1st 1.95
420 wolves kaufman 1st 2.3
650 wovles royal trooper rr 5.84
720 wolves archipeligo 1st 6.64

Today

200 lingfield castilo del diablo
340 lingfield loving your work

—————————————————————————————————————————————————-

All-weather racing is very quiet at the moment. But I want to prepare you for the upcoming season which will be with us quicker than you think, so I’ll continue with these postings despite the dearth of selections.

Laying penalised horses on the all-weather. It seems these horses are vulnerable when given a 6 lb or 12 lb penalty

Yesterday

1200 sthl novalist 6th 5.9
320 sthl bognor 1st 1.95
320 sthl burnhope 4th 4.6
620 wolves warm order 6th 3.71

Today

None

—————————————————————————————————————————————

Lay the Favourite in Irish Bumpers .

A bumper race is a National Hunt Flat Race. They are found in jumps meetings and usually are the last race of the day. These races has “flat race” or a derivative thereof in the title and laying the favourite to level stakes has proven to be very profitable over time.

Yesterday

None

Today

320 fairyhouse

—————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Lay the Favourite on the All Weather in Maidens Claimers and Sellers

The idea here is to focus on races on the All-weather ( you will see an AW in brackets at www.racingpost.com cards whenever there is an all-weather meeting.) I thought that targeting favourites in traditionally tough races ( maidens – horses who are starting out in their careers and have never won can be inconsistent), claimers ( open to upsets) and sellers( poor horses running and then being sold on) would produce a reasonable profit over time. This has proved the case so far.

I may have found an excellent staking plan to accompany this strategy. This betting strategy lays the favourites in the races listed below ONLY if they are 3.5 or higher in the Betfair market. We operate a 3 bet betting cycle, looking to retrieve losses and stake should the first lay lose.

It is high risk, but so far the longest losing sequence is 2. This is a strategy for quickly building up a betting bank.

 

I don’t include joint favourites when laying.

Yesterday

mdn 710 dundalk 5th 2.8
mdn 910 dundalk 4th 3.6
mdn 100 sthl 2nd 1.52
clm 245 sthl 2nd 3.15
mdn 350 wolves 2nd 2.78
mdn 450 wolves 2nd 2.47

Today

clm 1225 lingfield

Mdn = Maiden Slr = Seller clm = claimer

—————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Back the favourite in the worse performing races on the all weather.

Thisis actually making a profit as a backing system with a very specialist staking plan and backing all selections priced at 3.5 and under.

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/rolling_doubles.php is the staking plan and very interesting it is too. It seems perfectly suited to favourites

This staking plan and backing idea seems to be producing the goods!

 

Yesterday

610 dundalk 3rd 4.81
135 sthl 3rd 4.14
210 sthl 2nd 2.84
420 wolves 1st 2.3

Today

None