I wrote an article for my eletter on this subject, focussing on Banker Bets and showing you how we can profit from them.

I’ll list some apparent “bankers” in this post, and time permitting, will try to do this daily. I try to look for 1.1 odds or higher. The goal is to win back your initial stake and bank that immediately, then play on, banking profits every £10 or so.

This is not a strategy where I’m trying to create the biggest odds returns. I want a “banker”, a bet which is obvious.

Bankers and Blowouts – the mini-DRT angle.

www.drt.club is my trading service where I do all of my football research. I have noticed that these bankers, whilst sometimes frustrating us with score draws and throwing away 2-0 leads, rarely lose matches. How can you profit? Well are you familiar with football trading? That is, reacting to how a match unfolds in-play? If you are then you would have taken on faith the fact that these bankers rarely lose, and layed Dundee in play , when they were 1-3 up to bankers Aberdeen. Final score ( as you see below), 3-3. How about more frustrating bar stewards like Club Brugge the other day against Mechelen.

Staying with our premis that Bankers rarely lose, what could you have done if Mechelen ( as they did) take the lead? Lay Mechelen! Better yet, what if the match was still 0-1 coming to 90 minutes? Lay Mechelen at lower odds for potentially greater profit! You know what happened next, I am sure. Club Brugge equalised in the 90th minute.

I have already mentioned the idea of laying a team 2-0 up, to lock in profit. Consider the above elements too , in order to maximise the premis that Bankers rarely lose.

Just an added note regarding staking. If the strike rate remains as high as it is, I would recommend staying with level stakes, but re-calculating every 20 bets  which would have produced a bank of 747 pounds from an initial 100 pounds in November. Increasing the frequency to re-calculating 10% of the betting bank every 10 bets does extract a little more profit.

Plenty to ponder there. If you increase the % of bank bet, of course, then things really start getting exciting ( but ever the cautious, I’d have to warn you that it would be a big fall from grace if we hit a losing run)

At this juncture, level stakes is the only realistic staking option as some bets kick off at the same time. If you wanted other options, then select one bet at one time, as long as the next bet began after the 1st bet ended. This way you could employ “reactive” staking.

By selecting one bet for a specific time, the number of bets reduces from 225 to 137. Is there any advantage in reactive staking? Let’s take a look.

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php is the staking plan of interest, betting 20% of the bank ( as the assumed strike rate will continue to be high), turned 100 pounds on 22 November 2014 into 1356.48 as of today. ( as you can tell I don’t have apound sign on my keyboard lol).

We can employ a higher risk staking I think with assumed higher strike rate strategies. If doing , I would strongly urge you to withdraw initial seed money once the bank has doubled to allow you tdivisioo employ these higher risk strategies using OPM  – other people’s money.

Yesterday

 

 

Halep was the only player to lose from my short list .

Today

Novak Djokovic was systematic in his 6-4 set wins in his first round. I expect 3-0 Novak today against Niemenen.

I will stick with Kei Nishikori today at 1.18 odds although he is “off” a little.

John Isner at 1.19 should have too much for Matthew Ebden , 148th in the World and a Challenger regular.

I will add the research later. Use the research in consort with @whatreallywins twitter starting 1130am.

Wimbledon

There were some good trades yesterday such as Pospisil and Ivo Karlovic springing to mind. I also favoured Coric after he lost the first set and that was good. Go to @whatreallywins for more twitters to accompany this research.

1130am – Grigor Dimitrov v Steve Johnson- 1.16 Dimitrov

11th v 52nd in the rankings.  A tendency for Johnson to lose to top 20 players in recent months. Dimitrov I have researched. He had a poor run in to Wimbledon and exited quickly from Roland Garros. I would take a chance here and lay 3-0 Dimitrov today at just over evens just in the hope Johnson can take a set to a tiebreaker.  Do note the set betting markets are shockingly illiquid considering this is Wimbledon! 1.16 is too short for me to back Dimitrov although I expect he may win eventually. I would be a layer off the bat and hope Johnson can cause some temporary problems.

• Laying 3-0 set betting Dimitrov.
• Laying Dimitrov 1.16 -low liability. I can see the odds rising in this first to 3 format.

1130am – Kenny De Schepper v Richard Gasquet – 1.07  Gasquet

163rd v 20th in the rankings. Gasquet easily dispatched Saville in 3 sets and is likely to repeat the dose today.  1-0 to Gasquet in head to heads.

Betfair Head to Head is up and running for this match. A 5 setter for De Schepper against lowly ranked John-Patrick Smith makes this a tough match for him to win. Poor old Gasquet has been stopped by 2 top 10 players recently.

• Cannot see a shock here , so hope for one. Side with Gasquet.

1130am – Liam Broady v David Goffin – 1.07 Goffin

182nd v 15th in the rankings. Liam Broady did well first round losing the 1st 2 sets v Matosevic. This suggests an element of stick-ability. I would take this on board and lay Goffin if he leads 2-0. The liability will be de minimis. We saw with Troicki yesterday that a glimpse of the finishing line may lead to taking the eye off the ball.

5 consecutive matches now ( it could be more) see Goffin having at least one 7-6 tie breaker. This is our angle in today if Broady can keep with the goffin serve. For me, Goffin does not “feel” like a man only 5 steps from a top 10 spot.

• Lay Goffin if he is 2-0 sets up.

1130am – Pierre-Hugues Herbert v Bernard Tomic – 1.18 Tomic

• 151st v 26th in the rankings.
• 1-0 to Hugues Herbert in head to heads.
• I took Tomic on in the first round after he won the first set. He promptly lost the 2nd set so I profited well .
• Tomic is not at all to be trusted at 1.18. Yet again, this is another lay at such ridiculous odds for someone winning 3-2 first round at slightly shorter odds.
• Herbert alas is a compulsive 1st round exiter, even in a recent Challenger tour.
• Despite Herbert’s poor recent form, I will still lay Tomic at 1.18. Another lowly liability causes me little worry should Tomic win 3-0. I do not expect such smooth a ride.

1130am – Karolina Pliskova v Coco Vandeweghe – 1.41 Pliskova

1130am – Urszula Radwanska v Samantha Stosur – 1.35 Stosur

• the other Radwanska. 107th v 23rd in the rankings. No head to heads.
• 4 1st round exits for Radwanska suggests improvement here. She had an ultra easy 1st round but will be severely tested today.
• Stosur very business like in a 6-4 6-4 opening round. I cannot see Stosur losing today and that will be my angle in should the Stosur serve stutter or Radwanska up her game.

1pm – Zarina Diyas v Aliaksandra Sasnovich – 1.32 Diyas

1pm – Matthew Ebden v John Isner – 1.19 Isner

• 148th v 17th in the rankings.
• 0-1 to Isner in head to heads.
• 6 7-6 sets for Isner in his last 4 grass court matches. This suggests an over reliance on the serve. And it also suggests a glimpse in for the opponent lucky enough to reach the tie breaker.
• 7-6 in his first set for Isner in the first round as part of a 3-0 win v Soeda.
• Ebden beat Blaz Rola in 3 sets.
• Hope for a tie breaker today which may allow an enhanced back of Isner.

1pm – John Millman v Marcos Baghdatis – 1.33 marcos

• 120th v 54th in the rankings. 1-0 to Millman in head to heads.
• Baggy must take confidence in a recent win v a probably not fully wound up Ferrer in Nottingham. Semi’s at Nottingham sees Baggy taking this confidence into Wimbledon  – 3-1 v Donald Young saw Young win the first set.
• Millman is a Challenger tour player and if winning the first set, must be layed , preferably in the 3-0 set betting market.
• Baggy is a battler.
• Tough to read Millman’s form v Robredo. Robredo was a low seeded player . Did he have an off day or Millman simply a solid day?
• Both players are likely to win sets today.

1pm – Novak Djokovic v Jarkko Nieminen – 1.01 Novak

1st v 92nd and 5-1 to Novak in head to heads. 3-0 must enter equations. If we get to a tiebreaker, we might see the 3-0 odds increase for Novak. Likely 6-4 6-4 6-4 again!

1pm – Tommy Haas v Milos Raonic – 1.16 Raonic

145pm – Nick Kyrgios v Juan Monaco – 1.17 Nick

145pm – Maria Sharapova v Richel Hogenkamp – 1.04 Maria

• with that Sharapova serve sometimes deserting her, I must lay her at 1.04 here and hope for instant problems. 1.06 Wozniaki transformed into 1.35 shot Wozniaki after a poor start yesterday. I would be a Maria backer at these odds for sure.
• 4th v 123rd. Lessons from Halep and Navarro that in this woman’s game there is more unpredictability.
• We may not get much mercy from Maria today. Richel has only played one match since February. Injury?

145pm – Lesia Tsurenko v Irina-Camelia Begu – 1.6 begu

2pm – Marin Cilic v Ricardas Berankis – 1.08 Marin

315pm – Mariana Duque-MariÑo v Andrea Petkovic – 1.13 Andrea

315pm – Santiago Giraldo v Kei Nishikori – 1.18 Kei

• 60th v 5th in the rankings.
• Struggles for Kei in the first round winning 3-2. He seems a bit “off” and I wll lay him if he wins the first set. I hope the odds will drop below 1.1. Remember Kei retired in Nottingham. Any negative reason?
• Giraldo has not met top 10 lately so tough to gauge form.

315pm – Daniela Hantuchova v Heather Watson – 1.86 Daniela

• end of the dream I think today. Lay Heather if she wins the first set.

315pm – Marsel Ilhan v Kevin Anderson – 1.07 Kevin

• Anderson dropped a set first round at about these odds.
• 82nd v 14th in the rankings.
• No head to heads.
• it was in the 3rd set that Anderson faltered yesterday. So if he leads 2-0 today, I would lay him at low odds.
• 3-1 for Ilhan v Janowitz saw 2 7-6 tie breakers. Glass half empty? Lucky to have scored the key points to win the set. Glass half full? A battler.

315pm – Leonardo Mayer v Marcel Granollers – 1.42 Mayer

315pm – Fernando Verdasco v Dominic Thiem – 1.56 Fern

• 43rd v 30th in the rankings and the higher ranked player is the favourite.
• No head to heads.
• 3-2 first match for Verdasco suggests we will not see a 3-0 today. Lay the first set winner here. Both players dropped at least a set in the first round.
• 1.56 is far too short for Verdasco with this in mind. The only way we see a big swing in the odds will be a 2-0 Thiem set lead. This could be a match in which alternate players win sets 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, that kind of thing. It has been prevalent a lot in the men’s matches so far this Grand Slam

4pm – Belinda Bencic v Anna-Lena Friedsam – 1.18 Bencic

415pm – Bethanie Mattek-Sands v Ana Ivanovic – 1.26 Ana

445pm – Sara Errani v Aleksandra Krunic – 1.46 Sara

445pm – Sloane Stephens v Lauren Davis – 1.25 Sloane

• 37th v 75th in the rankings.
• Semi finals at Aegon for Sloane Stephens and she is in good form on grass.
• Quarters at Nottingham for Davis.

445pm – Stan Wawrinka v Victor Estrella Burgos – 1.04 Stan

• a sticky 3rd set for Stan in his opener is to be expected I suppose. It seems a pattern at 2-0 in the men’s game.

5pm – Su-Wei Hsieh v Lucie Safarova – 1.23 Lucie

530pm – Kirsten Flipkens v Victoria Azarenka – 1.1 Azarenka

• 96th v 24th in the rankings.
• 3-0 to Azarenka in head to heads.
• Azarenka was very impressive against limited opposition in the first round. I have to lay her though at 1.1. She is not the force of old.
• Flipkens had 2 1st round exits prior to Wimbledon so is not in the best of form.
• 6-2-6-4 for Azarenka in a 2015 head to heads suggests my lay might not see any action. But this being the woman’s game, and seeing how inconsistent the women’s serve has been already this Wimbledon, I am happy with a 1.1 lay.

530pm – Jelena Ostapenko v Kristina Mladenovic – 1.33 Kris

530pm – Yulia Putintseva v Venus Williams – 1.11 Venus

• I will continue to lay Venus Williams at these ridiculous odds, better yet if she wins the first set.
• 95th v 16th.  1.12 to lay Venus is fine by me.
• Venus’s form is not overwhelming.

530pm – Serena Williams v Timea Babos – 1.03 Serena

• 1st v 93rd.
• 1.13 for 2-0 is far too short. I will always lay Serena at 1.04 match odds.
• Babos took a set of Navarro in Nottingham. Not sure of the relevance of that form given Carla was dire.
• Must lay Serena at 1.04 here .Limited liability. Struggles in first set may see a rise in odds to 1.25+