Racing Testing Lab

A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

 Yesterday

9 155 fairyhouse Betting forecast: 5/4 Morning Run, 6/4 Carrigmoorna Rock, 8/1 Lyrical Theatre 1st 1.13
8 415 fairyhouse Betting forecast: 9/10 Whistle Dixie, 5/2 Honeys Joy, 10/1 Flaviana, 1st 1.11
9 1255 ffos las Betting forecast: 13/8 Souriyan, 11/4 Got The Nac, 11/2 Filatore, 2nd 1.16
5 420 ffos Betting forecast: 4/5 Captain Mcginley, 11/4 Sparksfrommyheels, 11/2 Maxanisi, 2nd 1.25
10 110 lingfield Betting forecast: 15/8 Inexorable Tide, 11/4 Sample, 6/1 Birkdale Boy, 6th 1.18
8 145 lingfield Betting forecast: 4/5 Middle England, 7/2 Souk Al Tahab, 6/1 Single Lense, 1st 1.12
5 1240 sandown Betting forecast: 6/4 The Saint James, 13/8 Pain Au Chocolat, 7/2 Old Guard, 1st 1.4
5 225 sandown Betting forecast: 7/4 Irish Saint, 9/4 Champagne West, 4/1 Splash Of Ginge, 2nd and faller 1.61

Today

5 150 chelmsford Betting forecast: 13/8 Bow And Arrow, 5/2 Logorrheic, 9/2 Thanksgiving Day,
7 330 muss Betting forecast: 7/4 Shanroe Santos, 100/30 Birch Hill, 13/2 Seldom Inn,