Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Sunday 19th April 2015

A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

 Yesterday

7 445 bangor Betting forecast: 7/4 Bearly Legal, 11/4 Degooch, 6/1 Steel Summit, 2nd 2.26
9 405 navan Betting forecast: 4/6 Ringside Humour, 7/2 Pullman Brown, 8/1 Curvy, 2nd 1.2
13 215 newbury Betting forecast: 8/11 Tiggy Wiggy, 4/1 Jellicle Ball, 12/1 Russian Punch, 3rd 1.35
7 525 nott Betting forecast: 13/8 Wonder Laish, 2/1 Shalabina, 4/1 North America, 1st 1.35

 Today

10 430 stratford Betting forecast: 6/4 No Loose Change, 5/2 Tugboat, 6/1 Foynes Island,
5 500 stratfoird Betting forecast: 8/11 Carningli, 6/4 Bells ´n´ Banjos, 12/1 Catwalk Babe,
5 410 wincanton Betting forecast: 4/6 She´s Da One, 9/4 Thats My Rabbit, 13/2 Captain Probus