Racing Testing LabA quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.
Background
2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.
Follow these steps below
1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.
2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.
3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
Yesterday
7 635 dundalk Betting forecast: 7/4 No Fear, 9/4 Octavia, 5/1 Ishebayorgrey, 3rd 1.55
7 110 fontwell Betting forecast: 4/6 Buckhorn Timothy, 2/1 Mr Dinosaur, 10/1 Profit Commission 4th 1.21
7 345 fontwell Betting forecast: 7/4 Thats Ben, 9/4 Popaflora, 7/1 Rebel High, 2nd 2.62
9 530 newbury Betting forecast: 7/4 Forever Popular, 5/2 Shoal, 6/1 Jasmine Blue, 2nd 1.59
21 440 tipp Betting forecast: 6/4 Unic De Bersy, 11/4 The Gatechecker, 7/1 Enumerater, 4th 1.13
Today
7 445 bangor Betting forecast: 7/4 Bearly Legal, 11/4 Degooch, 6/1 Steel Summit,
9 405 navan Betting forecast: 4/6 Ringside Humour, 7/2 Pullman Brown, 8/1 Curvy,
13 215 newbury Betting forecast: 8/11 Tiggy Wiggy, 4/1 Jellicle Ball, 12/1 Russian Punch,
7 525 nott Betting forecast: 13/8 Wonder Laish, 2/1 Shalabina, 4/1 North America,