Bankers or Blowouts

Selections for Saturday 16th May 2015

Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Saturday 16th May 2015

I wrote an article for my eletter on this subject, focussing on Banker Bets and showing you how we can profit from them.

I’ll list some apparent “bankers” in this post, and time permitting, will try to do this daily. I try to look for 1.1 odds or higher. The goal is to win back your initial stake and bank that immediately, then play on, banking profits every £10 or so.

This is not a strategy where I’m trying to create the biggest odds returns. I want a “banker”, a bet which is obvious.

Bankers and Blowouts – the mini-DRT angle.

www.drt.club is my trading service where I do all of my football research. I have noticed that these bankers, whilst sometimes frustrating us with score draws and throwing away 2-0 leads, rarely lose matches. How can you profit? Well are you familiar with football trading? That is, reacting to how a match unfolds in-play? If you are then you would have taken on faith the fact that these bankers rarely lose, and layed Dundee in play , when they were 1-3 up to bankers Aberdeen. Final score ( as you see below), 3-3. How about more frustrating bar stewards like Club Brugge the other day against Mechelen.

Staying with our premis that Bankers rarely lose, what could you have done if Mechelen ( as they did) take the lead? Lay Mechelen! Better yet, what if the match was still 0-1 coming to 90 minutes? Lay Mechelen at lower odds for potentially greater profit! You know what happened next, I am sure. Club Brugge equalised in the 90th minute.

I have already mentioned the idea of laying a team 2-0 up, to lock in profit. Consider the above elements too , in order to maximise the premis that Bankers rarely lose.

Just an added note regarding staking. If the strike rate remains as high as it is, I would recommend staying with level stakes, but re-calculating every 20 bets  which would have produced a bank of 747 pounds from an initial 100 pounds in November. Increasing the frequency to re-calculating 10% of the betting bank every 10 bets does extract a little more profit.

Plenty to ponder there. If you increase the % of bank bet, of course, then things really start getting exciting ( but ever the cautious, I’d have to warn you that it would be a big fall from grace if we hit a losing run)

At this juncture, level stakes is the only realistic staking option as some bets kick off at the same time. If you wanted other options, then select one bet at one time, as long as the next bet began after the 1st bet ended. This way you could employ “reactive” staking.

By selecting one bet for a specific time, the number of bets reduces from 225 to 137. Is there any advantage in reactive staking? Let’s take a look.

 

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php is the staking plan of interest, betting 20% of the bank ( as the assumed strike rate will continue to be high), turned 100 pounds on 22 November 2014 into 1356.48 as of today. ( as you can tell I don’t have apound sign on my keyboard lol).

We can employ a higher risk staking I think with assumed higher strike rate strategies. If doing , I would strongly urge you to withdraw initial seed money once the bank has doubled to allow you to employ these higher risk strategies using OPM  – other people’s money.

Yesterday

 

19:30 UK Sparta Prague v Slovacko – 1.25 home -5-2 final score. 4-1 at halftime. Wish I’d put that up. The odds were about 1.18 at kick off. But were 1.25 when I wrote the post.

Today

There are some teams who simply must win today, some of which edge towards bankers ( Monaco) whilst others are at the other end of the continuum ( Newcastle!). I want to research other shorties for www.drt.club first before I decide.

12:30 UK Arminia Bielefeld v Regensburg – 1.2 home – top v bottom in German Bundesliga 3 and it does look like Bielefield have the requisite form and motivation to win against an already-relegated Regensburg. Full research at www.drt.club.

15:00 UK SCR Altach v Salzburg – 1.25 away – perhaps one to avoid if you had this on your radar. Altach have won the last 2 head to heads.

16:00 UK Dinamo Zagreb v Hajduk Split – 1.5 home – no defeat at home in the league since August 2010 does not preclude the draw of course. Zagreb have 5-0, 3-0, 3-0 in the last 3 home head to heads.

17:30 UK Liverpool v Crystal Palace – 1.44 home – Stevie G La and his last game at home. Not sure Liverpool will win but they should not lose. Liverpool have had superb home form.6 wins and a loss to United in their last 7 at home, scoring at least 2. Palace are free and clear and have taken the foot off the gas with 4 defeats, but are still really impressing when I watch them.

17:45 UK Bray v St Patricks – 1.25 away – scoring 3 consistently in head to heads against a team who have just conceded 3-5-8-4 in their last 4 matches does make for a compelling argument.  3 wins in their last 4 away for St Pats.

20:00 UK Monaco v Metz – 1.25 home – I wrote in my research that this could be a banker for Monaco.Metz emphatically lose away to top 5. Monaco must win in order to guarantee 3rd spot.Metz are relegated.Only 3 defeats for Monaco since October 2014 and they lost their last match. I cannot see them losing a 2nd consecutive match.5 draws in their last 7 home matches is a concern. Monaco though are unbeaten at homein their last 14 matches and have beaten 2 of the bottom 3 2-0.

TODAY’S BANKERS

12:30 UK Arminia Bielefeld v Regensburg – 1.2 home – negatives? German Bundesliga 3 is a lowly league.

16:00 UK Dinamo Zagreb v Hajduk Split – 1.5 home – insofar as Dinamo Zagreb should not lose. I am not sure I would trust the home win. So not a banker rather a “HOME SIDE NOT TO LOSE’ banker.

17:45 UK Bray v St Patricks – 1.25 away – looks compelling unless Bray react to conceding 20 goals in their last 4 matches by sticking 11 men in goal.

20:00 UK Monaco v Metz – 1.25 home – needs must.

We do face what I call “Besiktas-itis” today with Arminia Bielefeld and Monaco. That is, you are bang in contention and suddenly start score drawing where you should be winning. Pressure tells. Hopefully not today as the 2 named teams play relegated opponents.

Dinamo Zagreb I am not sure of the angle in. They should not lose but I am not sure if they will win.