Saturday saw an exceptionally profitable DRT live chat for me and for members. There were a good number of lays under 1.10 ( meaning the equivalent of a 10/1 – 12/1 traditional odds bet.
So, if you love your football, and want more than Phil Thompson’s “He got the ball, Jeff, and he kicked the ball , Jeff” , then come on over to the DRT live chat where I sniff out big odds back bets and low odds lay bets.
Risk is low, profits are high.
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So onto the review.
DRT review Saturday and Sunday
22nd February 2014
1245pm – Chelsea v Everton – 1.53 home
This was the first match where we nailed an excellent short priced lay in the live chat.
It was the profitable in play opportunities which nailed this successful lay
Here they are
Profitable in play opportunities
- stats look straightforward. Everton tend to lose to top 5 away. Chelsea win v top 10 at home, but might concede v top 6.
- Everton’s goals tend to come 2nd half so lay any 2-0 Chelsea scoreline
- Unlikely to end 0-0 and conceivable Everton could keep it 0-0 for a while
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Comments
I took on board the fact Everton lose to top 10 and that the match could be 0-0 for a while. The latter came true as did the former later on.
In the live chat , I advocated a lay of the draw at odds of 1.14 and lower. By laying the draw, we are hoping for a goal ( as 0-0 is a draw of course).
The goal came to start an excellent weekend
1245pm – Hearts v Celtic – 1.2 away
I did not research this match.
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Comments
This was a simple case of taking note of a 0-0 halftime scoreline and expecting a goal in the 2nd half. There were 2 exploitable angles here
1) Back Celtic at enhanced odds
2) Lay the 0-0 correct score at lower odds than were available pre-match
Both proved successful
230pm – Borussia Mönchengladbach v Hoffenheim – 1.83 home
Profitable in play opportunities
- this should not end 0-0. Hoff matches tend towards over 2.5 goals . Having kept only 1 clean sheet all season, expect Hoff to concede at some stage.
- They have failed to score only 3 times this season, and now in their last 2 away matches. Surely not a 3rd consecutive away failure to score?
- Hoff could conceivably concede 2 goals today.
- Mgladbach favoured given they have only lost at home to Bayern Munich and Leverkusen
The Match
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Comments
With Hoffenheim the stats were extremely good. They were likely to concede and their matches tend towards over 2.5 goals
Note there was no real DRT trades here. This match showcases how good research can help you see how a match will unfold.
230pm – Hamburg v Borussia Dortmund – 1.33 away
- lay the 0-0 halftime score
- chance over 3.5 goals , even over 4.5 goals if the head to heads are a good indicator.
- Dortmund could continue scoring 2+ goals
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Comment
There was a goal before halftime but not necessarily to the team I expected.
There is a lesson to learn here. Make sure you note any Champions League teams having Champions League matches following a league match.
This I think is the reasoning behind Dortmund’s poor performance today they have an important Champions League match on the 25th February 2014
230pm – Nurnberg v Braunschweig – 1.7 home
Profitable in play opportunities
- it seems we have caught Nurnberg in their winning streak , and that is the reason for the short price.
- This should not end 0-0 so lay any late 0-0.
- Nurnberg have lost to 2 of the bottom 3, but is their recent 3 wins in 4 matches the key angle in?
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Comment
This was a messy match in which interest wained after a red card for Nurnberg. Note the number of missed penalties!
3pm – Manchester City v Stoke – 1.16 home
Profitable in play opportunities
- massive ( for Man City anyway) sequences to end – 2 without a goal in the premiership, and losing a home match.
- 1.17 odds suggests 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil. Coincidentally, Stoke seem to lose to top 7 sides by 3/4 goals so it is a possible.
- This is winning home form v losing away form pretty much.
- we could see a goal before halftime as City have scored 20 first half goals.
Comment
This match was all about sequences and the breaking of negative sequences. It was about keeping faith in a Manchester City side who had not scored in 2 matches.
It was 0-0 at halftime and at the hour mark. The goal eventually arrived.
3pm – Real Madrid v Elche – 1.09 home
Profitable in play opportunities
- all about Real Madrid here. Expected to score 3+ goals today
- lay the 0-0 halftime score .
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Comment
A goal before halftime and 3 goals just as expected.
3pm – Rangers v Stenhousemuir – 1.08 home
No research was done on this match, such has been the dominance of Rangers
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This was an excellent match to trade, albeit a very illiquid betting market. Still I managed to back this 1,.08 shot at odds of over evens ( value is in the eye of the beholder!).
Stenhousemuir scored first. Rangers equalized. Stenhousemuir scored again, Rangers scored to make it 3-2.
4pm – Marseille v Lorient – 1.75 home
Profitable in play opportunities
- some good stats here. Marseille don’t do 0-0?s at halftime at home so lay the 0-0 halftime score.
- Lorient have lost away to all of the top 10 they have faced. If Lorient lead at any stage, lay them
Comment
This was all about faith in Marseille scoring. They did not score at halftime as expected, but got that late 2nd half goal when the correct score 0-0 lay odds reached the odds on marker providing us with a good value lay.
5pm – Celta v Getafe – 1.85 home
Profitable in play opportunities
- you don’t score, you don’t win so it must be advantage Celta with Getafe having trouble scoring recently, and away. Their away wins have been to nil but they have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 13 matches so again advantage Celta
- I would lay Getafe should they lead at any stage in this match. Celta look the most inform side.
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Comment
Quite simply I proposed laying Getafe if they scored first. This I suppose was made easier by a 52nd minute red card for one of their players. Celta equalized for a successful lay.
530pm – Crystal Palace v Manchester Utd – 1.55 away
Profitable in play opportunities
- Quite clearly the best are too much for Palace. They can’t even score against top 10 at home.
- But do we bracket in United in their current form? Hmm.
- United are strong against 10th and below and at their best should not lose. They do score despite the problems this season.
- With Palace, there is always a chance that their matchill feature an extended 0-0. I would not put anyone off backing 0-0 pre-match.
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Comment
Another match which was read very well . Backing 0-0 pre match was put forward and could have been successfully layed at halftime.
Crystal Palace had never scored at home to top 10 sides this season. This suggested a backing of Manchester United as late as possible at better odds, as well as a lay of the 0-0.
530pm – Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen – 2.5 home
This was another excellent DRT match on the live chat and it was all down to Bayer Leverkusen’s stats
Leverkusen
- Only 1 draw all season
- Have failed to score in only 4 matches
· Last 3 away wins were 0-1- No 0-0 this season
· Have scored 9 of their 12 away goals in the first half.
- No 0-0 this season
I have put in bold the key stat I used in this match.
Here were my recommendations in the Profitable In play opportunities
Profitable in play opportunities
- Leverkusen avoid draws. Is that the obvious angle in? If so, lay any late draw.
- There is a chance of a goal before halftime. In fact 75% of Leverkusen’s away goals are scored in the first half. Lay the 0-0 halftime score therefore.
- A Leverkusen win could be as tight as 0-1 given they have won 0-1 in their last 3 away matches
- No 0-0 this season. Lay any late 0-0.
Let’s look at how the match progressed.
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Comment
In the live chat, I advocated a lay of Wolfsburg in the HALFTIME market, quite simply because Leverkusen had scored 9 of their 12 away goals this season in the first half.
If we add that fact to another stat pertaining to Wolfsburg ( that Wolfsburg had scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches), we came up with a logical argument that Leverkusen were likely to score, and 75% more likely to score in the first half.
I told DRT followers on the live chat to lay Wolfsburg in the halftime market at odds of 1.08. And wouldn’t you know it, Leverkusen get their goal in the 45th minute, and Wolfsburg concede yet again!
Fantastic Strategy …