St pauli beat celtic 1-0, HJK did score first as I thought, but it was a goal laden match. 1-1 at halftime, then Inter took the lead. 2-1. HJK equalised.
2-2 for me is a good trigger for trading. I call it a “Desmond”. 2-2 shows that both teams have their scoring boots on, and both teams have a leaky defence.
HJK scored next to make it 2-3 and Inter replied for a final 3-3. Laying the draw late on ( as late as possible in order to get as low odds as possible) did not work on this last occasion.
1.15 odds for Hearts spot on again ” 3/4 goals minimum”. They won 3-0, 3-0 at halftime time
I got the “both teams to score” prediction right in the Malmo match and this is a niche I want to pursue this new season. There’s money to be made in BTTS I’m sure. Kalmar scored first. Great news for DRT. I did question in my research ” will Malmo consent to score 3/4?” Well the answer? 3-1 to Malmo. Nice DRT.
Fecking feck! I’m getting so close with those correct score punts. I went 5-0 opening gambit in the Flora Tallin match, and those estonian feckers decide to make it 6-0. It just goes to show though that 1.06 shots have value in them, albeit in other markets.
Again, 1.17 equated to 3/4 goals minimum in the Red Bull match, despite a 0-1 lead and a red card to red bull at halftime. 0-5 it ended.
Rostov took the lead , CSKA equalised. Rostov then blew a gasket and got 2 men sent off. 3-1 final score CSKA.
2-1 final score to FC Copenhagen so a good start to the season. 2-0 up early, it was more comfortable than the 1.8 odds suggested.
What a bit of luck ” Head to heads point to laying such a short odds on shot away in a derby” so I said in the Bucharest Derby. Rapid scored first. There’s your profit from laying odds on Steaua. Steaua went on to assert though and win 1-3 but nice to nick a good odds on lay.
Happy Days in Ireland. Waterford decided to score first against Longford. If you thought ” that 1.27 is very ropey” for Longford, and you layed it, then again you’d have a great trade there. It was a conventional DRT otherwise as Longford went on to assert and win 3-1.
United were 3-0 up by halftime against Roma. Layable at such short odds in a friendly. It nearly worked were it not for the Romans waiting til late to score 2 goals. I should have gone with laying Arsenal at the off, rather than if they scored first. As it was New York got the soccerball into the end zone for a score .
On to today We have 2 Swedish matches where teams who played each other last week are playing each other this week. This is very strange for a league fixture. Also, both home teams are under.1 6 odds despite both home teams conceding 4 goals in the away leg! Hmmmm!
12pm – Everton v Leicester – 1.79 home
Standout stats
- Premiership v, well, Premiership. A nice test for Leicester here
- Only one friendly for Everton this close season was a 2-2 with Tranmere which tells me Everton are playing squad players in friendlies, as is the norm.
- Everton have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 11 friendlies.
- A 1-6 win for Leicester against Ilkeston is their only friendly this season
Profitable in-play opportunities
- headscratcher for me. Team news required. Will both teams score as seems to occur a lot with Everton in friendlies?
3pm – FC Basel v Luzern – 1.48 home
Standout stats
- only 1 match played this current Swiss season, sees a Basel away win and a Luzern draw.
- In head to heads Basel have won the last 3 head to heads 1-0, 0-2 and 3-1.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- and that’s where we stand. You’ll see this a lot at the start of a season. Little to work with. But once 6/7 matches have been played , teams begin to show patterns and sequences which make reading them a lot more accurate.
- Obviously historically Basel are the best team here and are likely to score 2 goals minimum. Factor in, then, a Basel win. Both sides have scored and conceded in their opener. It would be nice if Luzern scored first today so we can lay them or , at better potential returns, back Basel.
3pm – Yeovil v Cardiff – 1.62 away
Standout stats
- League 1 v Championship here
- 1-1 back in 2011 between these 2.
- unbeaten in 5 friendlies albeit against the likes of Forest Green Rovers and Frome Town
- lost 0-5 in a home friendly v Swansea in 2013, is that a sign of more Welsh doom and gloom today?
- only 1 loss in 10 friendlies.
- have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 friendlies
- have scored 3 in each of their last 2 friendlies, albeit played Teuta Durres ( who the feck are they?) and 1860 Munich
- have scored and conceded in their last 6 away friendlies and have not won last3 aways
Profitable in-play opportunities
- will both teams score? It seems to happen a lot in Cardiff matches. Cardiff favoured perhaps here as they have a decent friendly record.
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4pm – Rot-Weiss Essen v Dortmund – 1.13 away
Standout stats
- Dortmund are obviously the better team and take friendlies seriously. For the first time in a long time, they drew a friendly, 1-1 v Osnabruck, coming from behind
- Rot-Weiss are now on a 3 score draw run in friendlies and are yet to win a recent friendly conceding in all they have played.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- yesterday was a great example of sub 1.2 odds and how they translate into goals. So you know the drill – 3/4 goals expected and a possible win to nil, although with both sides score drawing with regularity , we might see both sides scoring.
- In the friendlies I have covered this summer, it seems laying these odds on shots, particularly at these short odds, is the logical thing to do. I would not discourage it, and at 1.15 to lay, liability is low. But treat it as speculative .
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415pm – Olimpija v Chelsea – 1.2 away
Standout stats
- Chelsea have been great DRT’ers in friendlies, conceding first, then fighting back, 2-3 win from 2-0 down and 1-1 draw from 1-0 down in their last 2 friendlies. In these 2 cases, Chelsea layed pre match would have profited. Will this be the case this time?
- Slovenian side Olimpja would ordinarily get stuffed by a Premiership ready Chelsea.
- They are yet to play a premiership side in friendlies
- Wins and a draw for Chelsea in their 3 2014 friendlies. Both teams have scored in the last 2 friendlies
Profitable in-play opportunities
- this will be a Chelsea of many changes and likely we may see contrasting displays 1st and 2nd halves. Favour Chelsea and hope they continue their happy habit of conceding first. I would not put you off laying these very very short priced teams in friendlies, as I said with Dortmund. They are the better side, but don’t play their best team
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430pm – AIK v Falkenbergs – 1.51 home
Standout stats
- a swedish league match
- this is 2nd v 10th so a good early season for AIK
- only 1 recent head to head is a 4-1 win for Falkenbergs – intriguing!
- only 3 defeats this season and as with Elfsborg, yet again we have 2 teams playing each other on the consecutive weekend. yet again we have an odds on home team who conceded 4 goals in the away match. All very strange
- 5 match home winning streak
- have scored in their last 7 home matches and their last 14 matches overall
- have scored and conceded in 6 of their 8 home matches
- all bar 2 matches this season have been over 2.5 goals.
- have failed to score only in the first match of the season
- have scored 2+ goals in 9 of their last 10 matches
- only 3 wins in 13 matches but as I say, beat AIK away in their last match. 2 of the goals came in the 87th and 90th minutes so sounds more like a smash and grab raid rather than a convincing 4 goal easy win
- have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches
- the last 5 aways have been tight defensively , 1-0 loss, 0-0, 0-3, 1-0, 1-1
- lost 3-0 away to 1st, playing 2nd today
- have conceded 5 goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
- as with Elfsborg below, I don’t like these matches where teams play each other immediately afterwards.
- based on home home, AIK are on a 5 match winning run and are likely to score 2. But they may labour as Falkenbergs have conceded only 1-0-0-1-1 in their last 5 aways.
- Intriguing match – what’s with that 1-4 win last time?
- will both teams score – it has happened in both teams’ recent matches
430pm – Elfsborg v Norrkoping – 1.58 home
Standout stats
- swedish league match – 16 matches in
- this is 6th v 8th
- both teams have won recent head to heads making that 1.58 quote for the home side layable based on head to heads ( Norrkoping 4-3 in head to heads!)
- no win in 4 and only 1 win in 6 matches
- have conceded 2 and 4 in their last 2 matches and intriguingly played Norrkoping in their last leage match losing 4-2
- have only failed to score in 3 this season
- home loss came via 1st in the league
- have conceded 7 goals at home in the last 1/4 hour of matches
- only 5 wins this season includes one last match v today’s opponents
- have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches
- 4-1-4-8-6- total goals in recent Norrkoping matches
- only 3 clean sheets this season
- have conceded 3-3-2-2 in recent away matches, the last 2 were 2-2 draws
- have conceded at least 2 goals in 5 of 7 matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
- this is a first for me. I don’t think I’ve ever come across a league fixture list which sees both teams play consecutive matches. This makes it quite difficult to get an angle in. Normally, after a mauling, you’d expect Elfsborg to NOT want that to happen again, and then over-focus on defending.
- With Norrkoping, despite winning well, we still have a side consistently conceding 2 goals in matches.
- This looks primed for a lay of any of these 2 teams who happen to be 2-0 up during the match.
- Will both teams score again?
5pm – Anderlecht v Mouscron – 1.29 home
Standout stats
- a new season in Belgium and something to prove from an Anderlecht side who did not win the title.
- these 2 sides have never met before which tells me Mouscron are newly promoted.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- 12 wins in their last 13 home league matches and 9 clean sheets suggests Mouscron are up against it on debut in this league. Favour Anderlecht here and hope it is a concerted 0-0 ( lay 0-0 late on) or Mouscron lead at some stage ( back Anderlecht at higher odds)
5pm – Dinamo Kiev v Vorskla – 1.3 home
Standout stats
- first day of the season
- 4th v 8th from last season
- the last 4 meetings have been really tight. 1-0 Vorskla , 1-0 Kiev, 2-2 Vorskla home draw, 2-1 Kiev, which suggests, if we base our conclusions solely on head to heads, that 1.3 is far too short an opening price for the home side.
- Dinamo Kiev only lost 2 matches at home last season ( to 1st and 5th)
- Vorskla had big trouble last season agianst top 6 sides, winning only 1 home or away.but it was 2-2 and 2-1 loss against Kiev
Profitable in-play opportunities
- I know it’s foolhardy to take your cues from last season, but it does point ( all things remaining equal) that Vorskla are vulnerable to the better teams home and away. That’s not to say a draw is out of the question, a win is stretching it a little though.
- It head to heads continue to be tight, I’d be a layer of Kiev at 1.3 odds. Far too short if Vorskla can make a fist of it. Lay Kiev at shorter odds if they take an early lead, in order to minimise risk.
5pm – Shakhter v Metalurg – 1.24 home
Standout stats
- 1st v 14th from last year
- 5 wins and a 3-3 draw in the last 6 head to heads in Shakhtar’s favour
- Scoring 2 or 3 in those friendlies.
- only 1 loss at home in the league since November 2011 ( the last date on soccerway) is very impressive
- 13 of the last 16 matches at home have seen 2+ goals
- only 2 draws last season -if that continues lay the late draw.
- only dropped points at home last season v 2nd and 3rd
- only 2 wins last season and did not win an away match, losing all to top 6.
- this looks obvious but there’s little to go on as this is the opening match for both sides.
- Expectation is for Shakhtar to score 2+ goals if last year’s trends continue. A possible win to nil could be on too, 2-0, 3-0
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7pm – Dundalk v Bray -1.25 home
Standout stats
- this is 1st v 11th of 12 in the Irish Premiership. A win keeps Dundalk top.
- Dundalk have won 5 of the last 6 head to heads
- Intriguingly Bray won 1-0 earlier in the season
- only 2 losses all season.
- unbeaten in 10 overall and 10 at home
- 70% over 2.5 goals at home
- Average 2.9 goals scored per home match
- 5 wins and a 0-0 in their last 6.
- have failed to score in only 2 matches
- 6 clean sheets in their last 8 matches
- only 1 0-0 this season
- no win in 6 away and 8 overall
- no draw in 5 overall
- have conceded in their last 5
- 3-2-0-5-3-3-5-3 conceded in recent matches. Poor stuff
- it all looks rather straightforward which is good for DRT’s. The stronger the favourite the bigger the shock if they are losing in-play.
- Expect 3-5 goals from an on-song Dundalk against a Bray side conceding for fun. 4-0 starters for correct score is in the medium between 3 and 5. If the odds are big enough I would always encourage backing 2 or 3 correct scores.