Sparta Prague won 1-2 , and in Levadia Tallin we had a lovely DRT. 0-2 down at halftime ( remember the 0-2 away team lay?), 1.19 shots Levadia were available to back at a high of 7 before scoring the next 2 goals to make it 2-2. Therein is your price movement. Nice! Although they went on to lose 2-3.
It was 0-0 at halftime in the Liefering match. The 1.52 shots actually conceded first to the newly promoted side. They equalised in the 90th minute, so those who employ the 85th+ minute trading idea woulc have layed the away side late and low for a surprising profit!
Easy as you like for Germany U19, a goal in either half .
The Zagreb match was a trader’s dream if you sided with 1.35 shots Dinamo Zagreb who found themselves 3-1 down at halftime. They ended up winning 3-4 with a 92nd minute winner. It was only the 2nd match of the season though but still, what a performance from the away side. And it is these scenarios where the big money is made.
I did favour Serbia U19 yesterday but the match was 0-0 until the 90th minute. Did you lay the late draw or perhaps back Serbia U19 at the death? You’d have been rewarded with a 1-0 90th+ minute winner. Again as with Zagreb, late goals equals big odds equals big profits for small outlay.
3-0 to Standard Liege yesterday in their first match of the Belgian league season and off to a flyer for the Champions.
The Southampton odds were very high, and it seems, value as they beat Bournemouth 0-1
Galway yet again scored 4 against Cobh Ramblers in an easy win.
I was right to be concerned with Shamrock’s “bitty home form” as they succumbed to a 0-1 loss. Again Drogs avoided the draw. It was a failed DRT if you favoured Shamrock.
What a surprisingly profitable day all in all. Note the 85th+ minute niche. I.e. wait until the dying embers of matches and see if there is a DRT opportunity. There were plenty yesterday and these really open up high odds returns if we get the late goals ( and there must have been something in the water with all the 90th+ minute goals yesterday).
On to today
There are a number of friendlies I will not research and first matches of the season, where I have nothing to go on. I have selected some of the better matches below.
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230pm – St Pauli v Celtic – 2.22 away
Standout stats
- the SPL starts next weekend so you’d think Celtic will be near to full strength and fitness
- unbeaten in friendlies since january 2012
- Amongst that was a 1-1 with Aberdeen and a 0-0 with Udinese so it should be a good test for Celtic
- unbeaten in 11 friendlies at home
- 3 draws in 4 friendlies
- unbeaten in 6 friendlies
Profitable in-play opportunities
- not a match which appeals. Lay any team 2-0 up? That seems to be the only angle in what looks a well-matched contest.
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3pm – Hearts v Annan Ath – 1.15 home
Standout stats
- this is a challenge cup match between Championship Hearts and League 2 Annan
- No form at all for Hearts in this competition
- Quite simply 1.15 ( if this is liquid) suggests 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil. you are either with this or not.
- Add the match to your list at futbol24.com or www.flashscore.com and hope for a surprise.
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3pm – Malmo FF v Kalmar FF – 1.7 home
Standout stats
- up and running with 15 matches played, the ideal number with which to check out patterns and sequences
- Malmo are unbeaten in head to heads. IN the last 7, there have been 5 wins and 2 draws
- 1st v 4th today. A Kalmar win takes them top in fact.
- only 1 loss this season
- 3 draws though in their last 5 matches
- Malmo have scored in their last 15 matches , and last 7 at home
- They are undefeated in 8 matches
- Malmo have scored in all matches this season
- Interestingly, in 3 matches played against top 4, we have 2 draws and a loss – vulnerable? also scoring and conceding in those.
- have scored 9 goals at home in the last 1/2 hour of matches
- only 2 defeats this season, both away and part of a run of 4 away without a win
- have failed to score in only 3 matches all season
- have not beaten any top 7 sides home or away this season, and lost away to 2nd and 3rd 3-0 and 4-1, quite comprehensive. Playing top today.
- Malmo don’t tend to lose head to heads with Kalmar, so any Kalmar lead should be layed , especially too, because Malmo have scored in all matches this season.
- That said, Malmo are vulnerable against the top 4, but Kalmar have conceded 7 in 2 away against the top 3! So will Malmo consent to score 3/4? If so, you’d expect odds shorter than 1.7
- both teams could score today, given Malmo’s draws in their last 5 matches, and Kalmar’s 2 draws in their last 4 aways
3pm – FC Inter v HJK Helsinki – 1.86 away
Standout stats
- HJK are unbeaten in head to heads, winning the last 2 aways 0-2 and 1-3 so fairly comfortable ( more so than today’s 1.86 quote would suggest)
- this is 9th v 1st in the Finnish top flight
- no draws in 11 is the most eyecatching stat , and no draw in 6 home matches
- only 5 clean sheets for FC Inter so they concede more than they don’t
- they have not had a 0-0 at halftime in 8 matches
- only one loss at home came in their last home match
- the 5 goals at home they have conceded in the first half have come between 15-30 minutes.
- Very busy goals wise either side of halftime with 3 and 4 goals scored at home
- have been defensively solid.They managed a run of 9 consecutive clean sheets. Since then, 4 clean sheets in 6 matches so it continues
- Failing to score in only 3, coupled with the clean sheets, is a good formula for success
- 3 draws though in their last 4 aways is a slight concern
- 15 matches without defeat
- no defeat in 8 away
- 5 0-0’s at halftime away is over half of away matches
- scored first in 7 of their 9 away matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
- HJK look solid away but they are drawing of late. Perhaps the Inter draw stat is the strongest. lay any late draw.
- Expect HJK to score at some stage, and score first. If Inter score first, we will be in DRT territory
5pm – Flora Tallinn v Trans Narva – 1.06 home
Standout stats
- 1st v 7th in Estonia
- Flora have won all 7 recent head to heads, and conceded only 1 goal
- only 1 loss this season was 2-3 v Infonet, coincidentally exactly what Infonet did to levadia tallin yesterday
- 7 consecutive wins and 4 at home
- No defeat in 15 matches
- have failed to score in only 1 match this season
- 6 clean sheets in their last 9 matches
- only 3 wins all season
- have conceded 15 goals in their last 4 matches
- no draw in 6 overall
Profitable in-play opportunities
- the market might be illiquid here as 1.06 is not the odds you’d expect judging by head to heads which are tight wins, mostly to nil , for Flora.
- But with Trans Nava losing 7-0 and 3-0 in their last 2 matches, 1.06 suggests another mauling today starting at 5-0
- I can only hope for the fireworks of yesterday’s Estonian match which was superb for trading.
6pm – FC Wiener Neustadt v Red Bull Salzburg – 1.17 away
Standout stats
- Red Bull have scored 5-8-5-5 in the last 4 head to heads.
- Only 1 match has been played this season. Red Bull won 6-1 on the opening day and FC Wiener lost 1-3
- No stats to go on. As you regulars know, 1.17 equates to 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil. I say “possible” as both teams scored in 3 of the 4 Red Bull Head to head maulings.
- Look for Red Bull to dominate and just hope Wiener strike the first blow.
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630pm – CSKA Moscow v Rostov – 1.6 home
Standout stats
- this is the Super Cup
- the last 2 head to heads saw a 1-0 CSKA win and a 0-0
- last year in the Super Cup, CSKA beat Zenit 3-0, ending losses in the Super cup in 2010 and 2011 1-0
- this is Rostov’s first time in the Super Cup
Profitable in-play opportunities
- experience to tell in this meaningless cup match? If CSKA lose, it is likely to be 1-0. So if Rostov take the lead, back the 1-0 Rostov and then lay Rostov in the match odds market ( see insurance bet video)
630pm – FC Copenhagen v FC Nordsjaelland – 1.8 home
Standout stats
- there’s nothing much I can do with this match as it’s the 2nd of the season. A draw for Copenhapen in their first and a 3-2 win for Nords in their first match.
- 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 -wins for both sides in recent head to heads. So very well matched which suggests odds on quotes are far too short ( albeit being at the “higher ” range of odds on.
- this is 2nd v 6th from last year. So a usually dominant FC Copenhagen did not win the title as they usually do.
- only 4 losses for Copenhagen in their last 30 matches was very impressive.
- Both teams scored in 71% of Copenhagen’s matches last year at home
- only 1 loss in their last 15 home league matches last year.
- As to Nords, well they were a little more sporadic last year.They ended the season with only 1 away loss in 6.
- they failed to score in only 6 all season.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- I’m struggling as you see, having to look at last year, which is folly really but it does signal a potential for both teams to score. This could suggest backing 1-1 as an opening gambit. It covers both teams scoring first, and it is alive as long as one team is 1-0 up.
- Little to go on as you can appreciate.
7pm – Rapid Bucharest v Steaua Bucharest – 1.52 away
Standout stats
- the Romanian season starts with a derby match. In head to heads both sides have scored in 3 of the last 4 matches.
- The head to heads are really tight, 3 1-0 scorelines, a 0-0, 2 1-1’s and a 1-2 . Note Rapid have won only 1 of these head to heads
Profitable in-play opportunities
- little to go on as the season begins. Head to heads point to laying such a short odds on shot away in a derby. Look at the one-goal-in-it head to heads. Treat it as a bet to nothing as Steaua have won 2 of the last 3 head to heads 1-0 and 1-2
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730pm – Longford v Waterford – 1.27 home
Standout stats
- this is the First division in Ireland and I have found there are more shocks here than in the Irish Premier Division. This match would not get a look in when the big leagues return so bear in mind we are delving to the lower reaches during the off-season. Still that 1.27 home quote must be investigated
- this is 1st v 6th in the league and note head to heads, Waterford win, Draw, Longford 2-3 win suggests that 1.27 is very ropey!
- only 1 draw in 11 matches
- no defeat in 10 matches and 7 at home
- have scored in their last 6 at home and last 6 overall
- A current winning streak of 4 at home and 6 overall
- a run of 7 clean sheets ended with a 3-2 win v Wexford youths
- have failed to score in only 3 matches this season
- only 1 0-0 at home this season
- only 1 draw in 12 matches
- no win in 4 matches
- have lost their last 2 away matches but not been too bad away, losing only 3.
- only 7 over 2.5 goals matches all season
- I don’t like the first division, I must say. Look at the head to heads, they point to a tight match and a potential draw or upset. Recent form suggests both teams tend to avoid the draw, so lay the draw here especially if a late draw?
- Longford have failed to score in only 3 this season, so expect a Longford goal if a concerted 0-0 or they are losing?
910pm – Roma v Man Utd – 2.16 away
Standout stats
- no real research to do as United have a new manager after Homer J. Moyesson’s reign of terror.
- 0-7 against Los Angeles was excellent for Man Utd and expect a tough to read match against a rock solid Roma last season. Should be a good spectacle but I cannot offer any pointers. Lay any team 2-0 up , as it is a friendly.
10pm – New York Red Bulls v Arsenal – 1.52 away
Standout stats
- the Henry connection. We saw what United did to LA Galaxy. Let’s face it, the MLS is pants and a basic retirement fund booster for has-beens.
- The soccerfans will hope this soccerball match does not go into overtime.
- have scored and conceded in 6 of their 7 friendlies
- 1-2 losses to Spurs ( twice) 1-1 with Arsenal, and 2-1 win over Man City, suggests the pre-season premiership teams are more their level.
- Arsenal have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6. They battled against the mighty Boreham Wood with a 0-2 eventual win.
- Arsenal have only lost 2 away friendlies since July 2009
- both teams to score here? Do remember this is a friendly so the stats and teams I am working with are unpredictable.
- Lay New York if they get the soccerball into the end zone.
- Laying odds on shots in friendlies is always to be encouraged. Lay Arsenal perhaps at lower odds if they score first?