Wellington won 2-1 against West Ham, they were 2-0 up so a DRT for early risers.

Urawa Reds scored a goal in each half to make it 0-2 , another good correct score shout from me.

2-0 for HJK in the first half and Rabotnicki made it 2-1 for a nervy 2nd half for the Finns.

A 4-1 win against Harma not quite the 5-0 or 7-0 I went for for MuSA. It is a good example for you though of looking for wins to nil when doing correct score punts.

Wow, Nomme JK took the lead as expected, Puuma equalised 2nd half to make it 1-1. AS I said “don’t get carried away, this is the Estonian version of the Championship.”

1860 Munich scored 3 and I did expect 2 minimum from them, so easy day for them.

A simple 0-1 win for Atl Madrid in their friendly with Numancia came in the 44th minute.

 

It took until the 72nd minute for Steaua to score a goal. My 0-0 back to lay trade therefore was very successful offering you ample time to lay off.

Chelsea are good DRT’ers in friendlies. 1-0 down to Wolfsberger, they equalised for another successful DRT, not quite the fireworks of the AFC Wimbledon match.

 

Maribor won eventually, a goal at the end of the first half and in the 2nd half for a 2-0.

 

Inverness and Sunderland both won 0-3 in 2 illiquid friendlies.

0-0 lasted until the 25th minute in the St pats match as Legia scored to make it 0-1 half time and 0-5 fulltime, which was the scoreline they were priced at in the first leg ( a 0-0)

 

On to today

And it’s dominated by the Europa League which is a competition I tread very warily with. We have the also-ran teams from obscure countries leagues.

What is interesting today is the market’s take on the 0-0 1st leg matches. Almost to a man, they have made the home team overwhelming favourite as you’ll read. This assumes that the market thinks the 0-0’s were an anomoly. This cannot be the case surely with all of these matches today?

 

 

130pm – Shakhter Karagandy v FK Atlantas  – 1.21 home

Standout stats

  • the first leg of this Europa League tie was 0-0, but the market have really taken a shine to the home side.
Shakhter
  • from the Kazak league and 20 matches into their season.
  • that draw last time was the first draw in 16 matches. Surely not a 2nd consecutive draw today? It might be a good opportunity to lay 0-0 if the match is 0-0 late on.
  • unbeaten in 13 at home, mostly domestic competition but do note the 8 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • unbeaten in 3 in the EL, albeit played the same team twice.
FK
  • lithuanian league side are 19 matches into their season
  • wins in the EL have come against Rhyl, and Differdange
  • 5 away defeats in the EL albeit spread between 2001 to now

 

Profitable in-play opportunities

 

  • this is why I don’t like the EL, 2 also-rans from obscure leagues meeting each other fleetingly.
  • it’s a case of agreeing with the market or not. As this was 0-0 first leg, perhaps 1.2 is layable as the only real value available? But then I don’t specialise in teams from Lithuania and Kazakhstan.
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5pm – FK Krasnodar v Sillamae Kalev  – 1.09 home

Standout stats

  • 4-0 from the first Europa League leg. So this tie is reasonably done and dusted.

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5pm – Omonia v Buducnost Podgorica  – 1.38 home

Standout stats

  • 2-0 to Omonia from the first leg, with a goal in each half in this Europa League ( EL) tie.
  • Omonia will tolerate a 0-1, even a 1-2 away defeat and still go through on the away goal rule.
  • Buducnost must win 0-2 initally just to regain parity.
  • They last won in the EL against a San Marinese side.

 

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • the first goal scorer will set the tone here. If the away side score first, the home side will want to secure that 2 goal lead again. If the away side are 0-2 up, I will lay them.
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6pm – AIK v Linfield  – 1.23 home

Standout stats

  • and excellent show by Linfield with an 87th minute 1-0 home win against AIK
  • but yet again today, we have the market siding with a home side in deficit.
AIK
  • AIK are 2nd in the Swedish league so doing well.
  • they have won their last 5 matches at home, scoring 2 goals minimum
  • they have lost 3 of their last 4 EL matches, losing to Napoli, Dnipro, CSKA Moscow
  • they did beat PSV 1-0
Linfield
  • unbeaten in 7 in the EL, but meeting iffy teams like IF, Xanthi,B36
  • 3 consecutive away wins , keeping 2 clean sheets

 

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • as you read today, the market is very dismissive of the away sides who come into these 2nd legs with leagues. They seem to think that was an anomoly and the home side are just that much better. So we have it again with AIK, 0-1 down from the first leg and without an away goal.
  • yesterday saw the 0-0 pre match back work out very well as these matches on the whole went in at halftime at 0-0.
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6pm – Lech Poznan v Nomme Kalju  – 1.2 home

Standout stats

  • an 81st minute Nomme Kalju goal is a shock from the first leg of this Europa League ( EL) tie.The market expects reparation from the home side.
  • This is Polish v Estonian sides, and I have said in the past that, although the estonians are strong domestically, they tend to get found out in Europe.

Lech Poznan

  • only 1 draw in 17 matches
  • only 3 losses at home since May 2013
  • no draw in 8 EL matches
  • have lost 2 of their last 3 EL matches 1-0
  • A 1-0 loss v Zalgiris was turned into a 2-1 home win in the 2nd leg.
  • no defeat in 11 home EL matches , winning 6 times

Nomme Kalju

  • are unbeaten in 3 EL matches but the 8 prior saw them without a win

 

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • permutations? A 0-0 or a 0-1 or a score draw sees Nomme through
  • Lech don’t have an away goal so must win to nil today, 2-0 sees them straight through. That’s what the market expects. Will Nomme surprise as they did in the first leg? If you think so, then 1.2 is eminently layable.

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6pm – SV Grodig v Cukaricki  – 1.36 home

Standout stats

  • 0-4 to Grodig from the first leg  saw 3 goals after the 80th minute. Flattering? In any case it’s 4 away goals and in this Europa League , it should signal game over. Some of these apparent dead rubbers ended in draws , will that occur here?
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6pm – Tromso v Vikingur Gota  – 1.18 home

Standout stats

  • and again we have a 0-0 from the first leg of a Europa League time ( EL) and in this 2nd leg the market has decided that the home team will really push on.
Tromso
  • are unbeaten in 3 EL matches.
  • recent defeats in the EL have come against the likes of Anzhi and Tottenham at home.
Vikingur
  • A team from the Faroe Islands, so they should be vulnerable but do, in fact , hold the advantage of keeping Tromso from scoring an away goal.

 

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • the market hints at Tromso scoring 2/3 goals and a possible win to nil .
  • Permutations? A 0-1 and Vikingur are through. A 1-1 and Vikingur are through.
  • If Tromso concede first, they must win clearly to go through. Any score draw and they are out.
  • Faroe Islands sides are usually logically opposable.
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630pm – Groningen v Aberdeen  – 1.6 home

Standout stats

  • 0-0 from the first leg of this Europa League ( EL ) match
Groningen
  • unbeaten in 13 matches, mostly domestic, with 11 wins
  • have won their last 6 home matches
  • have only won 1 of their 5 EL matches and that was in  2006
Aberdeen
  • how they wish Fergie was managing!
  • 0-0 from the first leg means it is a great incentive to score first, and score that away goal.
  • 6 unbeaten and 5 consecutive clean sheets
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets in the EL , albeit 2 were against the same side.
  • no EL appearance since 2009
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • this looks well-matched to me so I would have to lay any odds on shot, better yet if Groningen take the lead, I would lay them at lower odds.
  • 0-0 back to lay trade I feel is a goer, given Aberdeen’s recent clean sheets.
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630pm – Spartak Trnava v Zestafoni  – 1.59 home

Standout stats

  • yet another 0-0 from the first leg Europa League tie and a home side fancied to progress with a win
Spartak
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets, and 2 consecutive 0-0 scorelines now
  • 6 wins and a single loss in their last 7 home matches
  • only 1 loss in their last 8 EL matches
  • only 1 loss in their last 10 EL home matches
Zestafoni
  • a georgian side who have not won in 6 matches,
  • they have failed to win in their last 6 EL matches, failing to score in 5 of those matches
  • have failed to score in their last 4 away EL matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • another headscratcher between a Slovakian and Georgian team. Why the 0-0 first match? as you see throughout today, the market is acting as if these 0-0’s were anomolies throughout. Surely not all of them were anomolies?
  • it looks on the face of it that the away side have trouble scoring in the EL. That may be their undoing although if they do score, the home side must score 2 goals in order to win .Back 0-0 pre match if the odds are high enough and hope the inabilities to score take precedence.
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630pm – Zorya v KF Laci  – 1.32 home

Standout stats

  • 3-0 to Zorro from the first leg and this is all I hate about the EL. Who are these obscure teams? These are also-rans from the Ukraine and Albania.
  • Looks like game over here
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7pm – Asteras Tripolis v RoPS  – 1.5 home

Standout stats

  • 1-1 from the first leg of this Europa League ( EL ) match
Asteras Tripolis
  • 5 under 2.5 goals matches in their last 6.
  • 3 1-0 scorelines in their last 4 home matches
  • 6 draws and a 3-1 loss in their 7 EL appearances.
RoPS
  • a finnish side unbeaten in 7 matches
  • this is their debut in the Europa League

 

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • a match to swiftly cross a line through.
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7pm – Sligo Rovers v Rosenborg  – 1.94 away

Standout stats

  • an excellent 1-2 away win for Sligo Rovers in the first leg of this Europa League ( EL) tie.

Sligo Rovers

  • Sligo’s 6 defeats at home since March 2013 have all been 0-1. They’d take that today as they’d go through on away goals.
  • Sporadic appearances in the EL , in 2009 Loss draw, 2011 Draw Loss, 2012 Loss Draw, and in 2014 Draw Win Win so far.
  • have drawn and won their last 2 at home in the EL

Rosenborg

  • Rosenborg came unstuck against St Johnstone in 2013, losing 0-1 at home before drawing 1-1 away
  • Their goal against Sligo Rovers was an own goal.

 

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • a gross under estimation of Sligo Rovers in the first leg, both from the market and from the opponents. No such mistake tonight
  • Sligo can tolerate a 0-1 defeat ( and that seems to be the only scoreline which they lose by at home) and still go through.
  • Rosenborg must score 2 goals today , one simply will not do.
  • Tough to get any angles in, suffice to say Rosenborg’s goal was an own goal. Is this a sign that Sligo can be defensively robust at home tonight?
  • Do you trust Rosenborg to score 2 goals. 0-2, 1-2, perhaps?
  • Or trust Sligo? 0-0, 0-1 tolerable loss?

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715pm – Hajduk Split v Dundalk  – 1.41 home

Standout stats

  • 0-2 away for Hajduk in the first leg of this EL tie.  Dundalk have their work cut out tonight and must equal that 0-2 scoreline just to gain parity. You feel a Split goal first will kill this tie off.
  • 2-0, 2-1 could be scorelines of interest today. The latter suggests Dundalk get an away goal they crave.
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