Dinamo Zagreb at home to Croatian opponents seems to be money in the bank. Easy peasy yesterday. The Finnish Cup match featuring HJK ended 2-2 and if you took your cues from the 1.37 odds for HJK then you’d have layed Honka when they went 1-2 up.

The Special Needs One did not get the away goal and Atl Madrid did at home what they did to Barcelona – keep a clean sheet. 4 consecutive clean sheets – make that 5 now for Atl Madrid!

For those of you keeping faith with Rangers, then you’d have layed the draw late on to see a Rangers goal to make it 2-1. This was a dead rubber much like the next match!

Bolton v Leicester – welcome to the world of the dead rubbers! A 0-1 eventual win for Leicester in a match I steered clear of.

Reading needed the win with Boro in mid table mediocrity , and Reading got the win. A nice 2-0 home win.

 

On to tday and it’s a little thin. Shakhtar at home are 1.07 which should equal tons of goals, a couple of 1st half goals and an easy win.

Toulouse v Lyon leaves me puzzled as you’ll read. Lyon are the solid in form team yet are only 2.72 to win!!

PSG face one of only 2 sides to have beaten them this season.

Real and Bayern square off later on  – 0-0 in this match? Yeh, right!

 

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12pm – Pohang Steelers v Buriram Utd – 1.59 home

Standout stats

  • Thai football is so poor that Football genius David Moyes would not look out of place. This is an AFC Champions League match which sees the Pohang steelers who are unbeaten in 5 2014 AFC matches, winning 3 and score drawing 2. Pohang have scored 2 goals at least in their last 4 AFC matches, including a 1-2 away win v Buriram , and they were 0-2 up
  • Buriram are perennial strugglers in the AFC, with a winless run of 7 matches ending with a 1-0 win last time out which is not the norm!!
  • 5 consecutive home draws for Pohang in the AFC must be a worry but they play a Buriram who have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 aways.
  • I would favour Pohang here not to lose and to get a goal if we have a protracted 0-0
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For reference – these are short priced teams you might like to keep an eye on.

 

4pm – GKS Belchatow v Stomil Olsztyn – 1.42 home – this is a Polish 2nd division match, hence a reluctance to research!

 

 

4pm – Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Ludogorets – 1.42 away – this is a Bulgarian Cup match in which Ludogorets are 2-0 up from what I assume is the first leg.

 

 

430pm – Gorica v Krka – 1.34 home – this is a Slovenian top league match

 

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5pm – Shakhtar v Tavriya – 1.07 home

Standout stats

  • this is a Ukrainian top flight match and is featured at www.soccerstats.com
  • 4-0 and 5-0 in the last 2 head to heads for Shakhtar perfectly exemplifies the kind of scoreline we’d expect of a 1.07 shot
  • this is top v bottom
Shakhtar
  • 10 wins in their last 13 matches
  • 5 wins and a loss in their last 6 home matches
  • have failed to score in only 3 matches this season
  • at home, Shakhtar have won all bar 2 and have beaten all teams 5th and lower , conceding only 1 goal
  • no 0-0 this season
Tavriya
  • only 2 wins all season
  • 5 consecutive defeats
  • Have failed to score in their last 6 matches
  • only 2 clean sheets all season
  • their last 2 defeats were only 1-0 away
  • this season Tavriya seem to have tightened things up, and have only conceded more than 1 goal away in 4 matches.
  • They have failed to score away to top 6 sides , but only lost 1-0, 2-0, 1-0 to top 4 away
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • Yes, Shakhtar won 0-4 away at Tavriya earlier in the season, and that fits perfectly in with the 1.07 quote, but it must be noted Tavriya are tight away from home, losing only 1-0 to 2nd and 4th.
    Tavriya’s only problem is not scoring alas. So despite conceding only 1 quite a few times away, they cannot capitalise because they cannot score.
  • The odds tell us another 4-0, 5-0 is on the way. Tavriya’s away form might suggest a lay of Shakhtar at 1.08 as a bet to nothing incase they park the bus as they seem to have been doing away.
  • 1.07 suggests goals before halftime, but it would not surprise were Tavriya to keep it tight for a while.
  • Value correct scores? 4-0, 5-0, 2-0
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530pm – Paris St-G v Evian TG – 1.22 home

Standout stats

  • 5 matches remain and PSG are currently 7 points clear so must keep winning in order to wrap up the title at the earliest possible opportunity. These 5 matches also mean that Evian have to keep winning as they are only 5 points clear of relegation.
  • Both sides do have a game in hand over nearest rivals
PSG
  • only 2 defeats all season and one came in their last match away.
  • Prior to that 1-0 loss PSG had kept 6 clean sheets
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • have only failed to score in 2 matches all season, and both resulted in a loss, so PSG do not do 0-0
  • the league is topped and tailed at home with a 1-1. All other matches are easy wins scoring between 2 and 5 goals.
  • Evian actually won the home encounter 2-0 earlier in the season so they follow in the match which comes after PSG’s 2nd loss of the season, having inflicted the first! Hmmm!
  • 75% clean sheets at home. Have scored in all home matches
  • 3 0-0’s at halftime at home
  • have scored 18 first half and 28 2nd half goals.
Evian
  • only 2 defeats in 11 matches
  • only 1 away win in 11 matches. 2 consecutive 1-1 away draws.
  • have kept only 6 clean sheets all season
  • have not won away v top 15 but did draw 1-1 with Monaco followed by defeats to 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
  • have scored in their last 5 away matches
  • 6 0-0’s at halftime away
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • interesting that we have the team who beat PSG playing in a match directly after PSG’s 2nd only defeat of the season. Lightning surely will not strike twice?
    PSG at home are expected to score 2+ goals. When they do not score they lose. THey don’t do 0-0.
  • Not sure re halftime score 0-0 lay. PSG have had only 3 at home all season and with keeping 75% clean sheets at home, we would it seems have to rely on them solely to produce a goal before halftime.
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530pm – Toulouse v Lyon – 2.72 away

Standout stats

  • we see it a lot. The home team wins in head to heads. This is the case here with 3 consecutive wins to nil for Toulouse
  • this is 9th v 5th. Toulouse are 11 points clear with a possible 15 points remaining for them if they win remaining matches. I will say they are safe unless some Carole Vorderman like mathematical anomolies occur. Lyon I suggest are still motivated and can break into the top 4 if they keep winning. They have a 10 point gap to make up to 3rd and that is out of reach
Toulouse
  • have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches
  • only 1 win in their last 8 home matches
  • only 7 clean sheets all season
  • against teams above them, they have only lost to 1st, 2nd and 3rd at home. Draws v 4th, 6th and 7th and are playing 5th today
  • have scored and conceded in their last 5 home matches
  • 5 0-0’s at halftime is about 31% of matches
  • have scored first in only 4 home matches and lost only 5 so a suggestion Toulouse could get back a deficit
  • only 4 wins at home but 7 draws
Lyon
  • only 4 defeats in 22 matches. We saw this with Stuttgart (out of form) v Schalke ( the form side) recently in a similarly priced match and Stuttgart ran out easy winners, so the odds might be revealing something amiss with Lyon?
  • A 1-0 win v PSG latest though is solid form!
  • 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 away matches
  • have failed to score in only 5 of their last 25 matches
  • against 7th -11th inclusive, Toulouse have won all matches away
  • have scored and conceded in 11 of 16 away matches
  • 3 0-0’s at halftime away
  • have scored only 6 goals away in the first half and 17 in the 2nd half
  • have scored first in only 6 of 16 away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • a word of warning. As I said in the research I saw this scenario with Stuttgart v Schalke. Similar odds. Statistically Schalke were the bang in-form team and I would not see why Stuttgart were gfavourites. Stuttgart won easily.
  • We have a similar scenario. We have a Lyon side bang in form who have just beaten PSG for goodness sake! Yet why are Toulouse favourites and why are Lyon not shorter in the betting. This leaves me suspicious. Glass half full? Value about Lyon.
  • Interesting that both teams tend to concede first a lot more than they score, so either team could score first. Toulouse have a reasonable record v 4th-5th at home and that brings the draw into play. I would perhaps lay Toulouse if they scorefirst but remind you that Stuttgart were overwhelming winners in their match!
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745pm – Real Madrid v B Munich – 2.56 home

 

Standout stats

  • the ideal of course today is for the home team to keep a clean sheet ( lol !! It’s Real Madrid) and the away side to score 1, better still 2, at least in order to take advantage of the away goal rule.
  • Instinct suggests an ability for both to score, and remember Pep Gladioli was Barca manager so knows how to play Real Madrid.
  • I’ll leave this up to you as there is no statistical angle