Bayern Munich scored first after a concerted 0-0 so I suppose there was a DRT there . the match ended 1-1. Port vale won 4-0 in a routine friendly. Did you keep faith with Southampton? 0-0 at halftime and they got a 51st minute winner.
By the way, there was a match between Tienen ( not to be confused with Irish comic Tommy Tiernan) and Sint Truiden. Sint Truiden were 1.35 favourites. I did basic on spec research and found goal fests when these 2 play friendlies. So , folks, what do you do when Tienen take a 3-1 lead? Well, I backed Sint Truiden and layed Tienen with split stakes. I had a big liability on Tienen, big profit on Sint Truiden, and small profit on the draw.
THe match ended 3-3 and was 3-3 for some 10-12 minutes. I took the lesser draw profit but a Sint Truiden win would have netted me £265. I took a risk here instead of guaranteeing £140 profit at 3-3.
The choice is yours. Sometimes I feel like throwing money away by greening up at the earliest occasion, but then I do remind myself that, unlike Russell Grant, I cannot predict the future. I did engineer a successful trade , and trading is ” the anticipation of a future price movement” isn’t it?
Just a heads up on any Sydney FC friendly against West Ham coming up. I have it on good authority that Sydney are using these friendlies to simply look at all squad players so expect a solid West ham side to do what Newcastle did to Sydney this morning ( 0-4 win)
On to today
830am – Sydney FC v Newcastle – 1.51 away
415pm – Leverkusen v Lokomotiv – 2.04 home
Standout stats
- this is a friendly between one of the better Bundesliga sides and Lokomotiv Moscow.
Leverkusen
- only 1 loss in 14 friendlies and they have won their last 4 friendlies scoring 4-6-5-6
- have scored 7-1-2-1-3-2-4-6 in recent home friendlies
Lokomotiv
- unbeaten in 7 friendly matches , sees 6 wins and a 1-1 latest
- no draw in 12 away friendlies sees 8 wins in their last 10 aways
Profitable in-play opportunities
- 2 teams who seem to take friendlies seriously ( or perhaps play weaker opponents hence the goals and the wins?) and we should see goals today. The odds are tentatively in favour of Leverkusen which suggests this will be a good work out for the home team. The only major pattern I noted was Lokomotiv’s avoidance of draws in away friendlies. So if a late draw, lay the draw at the lowest odds you can get in the hope this continues.
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5pm – F91 Dudelange v Ludogorets – 1.35 away
Standout stats
- this is the 2nd leg of a Champions League match
- Ludogorets have a 4-0 home advantage so this is all but done and dusted. Ordinarily their odds would be much shorter but I suppose the market has factored in complacency.
- Ludogorets need a 0-0 and will tolerate a 3-0 loss today and still progress. If Ludogorets score, it is game over for F91.
- F91 of course need a 4-0 starters just to regain parity. That will not happen. If it does, I will walk down my local high street in my girlfriend’s sunday best.
- A match which is all done and dusted. This is effectively “halftime” and ordinarily I would advocate laying any team leading 4-0 at halftime. But this home team comes from such a weak country football-wise that this should not be attempted.
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5pm – Flora Tallinn v Tallinna JK Visadus – 1.02 home
Standout stats
- do not dismiss 1.02 shots , for as you know this signals goals and that’s the first step to increasing the odds and getting some value .
- top flight v II Liga in the Estonian Cup.
Flora Tallin
- 8 consecutive wins in all competitions is part of a run of 13 wins in 16 matches
- 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches
- 5 consecutive home wins and have kept 5 home clean sheets in their last 6 matches
- only 1 draw in 21 cup matches has seen 18 wins and note some of the scorelines 13-0 , 1-9, 7-0, 6-0, 6-0, 9-0 6-0 so Flora do not let up when they smell blood.
- 6 consecutive home wins and scorelines of 5-0, 4-1, 6-0, 13-0, 3-0 and 7-0
JK
- only 2 cup matches, defeats 0-2 and 0-1 v teams outside of the top flight.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- a recent Estonian side was similarly priced and I went 10-0. They won 9-0. So if you want a value punt here I suggest a correct score to nil. We see in past history a high of 13-0 and elsewhere an inability ( or unwillingness ) to go beyond 9-0.
- 9-0 would be my starting correct score today. If the odds are big enough, throw in another couple of correct scores to nil. 6-0 incase they take their foot of the gas?
- these are actually the best DRT matches because the home team are such strong favourites that anything other than a comfortable win can be exploited via DRT
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5pm – Germany U19 v Serbia U19 – 1.43 home
Standout stats
- will the German air of invincibility pervade to the youngsters?
- this is the UEFA under 19 Championship ( EC)
- 2-2 when these 2 last met in 2012
Germany
- only 2 losses in 19 EC matches were against Norway and Holland
- have won their last 4 EC matches with 2-0, 4-0, 3-1 and 0-3 wins, includes a 3-1 win over Spain U19.
Serbia U19
- are unbeaten in 13 EC matches so this could be a sterner test than Germany’s 1.43 odds would have you believe.
- 6 wins and 2 1-1 draws in their last 8 matches
Profiatable in-play opportunities
- tough to gauge who they have played in relation to Germany , but the Serbians will be seeking to keep a good unbeaten run in tact. This suggests to me that the German sub 1.5 odds could be layed.
- The Germans themselves could gain a boost from their first team winning the World Cup and be worthy eventual winners?
- Tough to call at this level. The value as I say is in laying Germany at 1.43 but it will require a long 0-0 and a Serbian opening goal for us to profit well.
- Will Germany score 2/3 goals as they have done recently?
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5pm – Levadia Tallinn v Sparta Prague – 1.4 away
Standout stats
- 7-0 to Sparta Prague from the first leg of this Champions League match. As you know by now, we should be seeing far shorter odds for the away team , were it not for the fact that this tie is over and will be nailed with a single away goal.
- A match which is hard to get an angle in, such is the away sides’s dominance and unassailable lead.
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530pm – Karabakh v Valletta – 1.31 home
Standout stats
- all to play for here. Karabakh have a 1-0 lead, yes it is an away goal, but was not what the market was expecting from the first leg of the Champions League ( CL).
- Karabakh are top after 36 matches in the Azerbaijan league.
Karabakh
- An 18th minute away goal separates these 2 teams.
- A 1-0 in their last home match was a friendly v Krasnador. A 1-0 loss today would see the match on parity.
Valletta
- Maltese Valletta will be very pleased with their first leg home appearance, giving themselves a chance this 2nd leg.
- they have not had a draw in 12 CL matches
- they have lost 5 of their last 8 CL matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
- all to play for , but the market has already decided that Karabakh will do what is necessary with home advantage. The value is in laying karabakh at such short odds, given the tightness of the 1st leg, but that would require blind faith in the Maltese side scoring first.
- Back 0-0 pre match might present value and a hope the match remains 0-0 for a while to allow us to trade out. ( I usually trade out if 0-0 at halftime)
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6pm – Deinze v Anderlecht – 1.08 away ( but an illiquid market so the odds are inaccurate as I write)
Standout stats
- a Belgian friendly between 3rd division Deinze and Pro League Anderlecht.
Deinze
- have scored and conceded in 2 summer friendlies, 3-4 loss to Cercle Brugge and 1-1 with Club Brugge. Both opponents were top flight so well done Deinze in running them so close.
- But, historically, Deinze find top flight teams too much in friendlies, with 0-7, 0-5, 1-4, 0-4, 2-4 and a 1-1 in recent history.
Anderlecht
- recent Super Cup victors over Lokeren – you’ll recall that Lokeren own goal in the 90th minute ( a nice DRT for any late layers of the draw!)
- Win, Draw, Win, Win in their summer friendlies, typically scoring 2 goals .
Profitable in-play opportunities
- past history suggests Deinze find the top flight teams too much, and will concede at least 4 goals if Anderlecht turn up on song.
- So do not expect a 0-0 here, and perhaps lay 0-0 in the halftime score market if it is 0-0 for a while.
- Check the market nearer the off to determine more accurate odds. If the odds are less than 1.15 for Anderlecht, then expect 4 goals + today.
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530pm now? It was 6pm – Derby v Zenit St Petersburg – 1.83 away
Standout stats
- Soccerway has this as a home match for Zenit. Andre Villa Bow-Arse takes on english opponents again.
Derby
- only 2 defeats in 17 friendlies but playing the likes of Mickleover Sports, Ilkeston, Matlock Town, Corby Town, Burton Albion and Bohemians along the way. Not quite in the same league as Zenit, I would suggest.
- A nice 1-3 win against Notts County, from behind most recently
Zenit
- only 1 loss in 13 matches in all competitions
- recent friendlies have seen 2-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 in Zenit’s favour. Are they working on keeping clean sheets in friendlies?
Profitable in-play opportunities
- logic suggests Zenit are far stronger opponents than the likes of Matlock Town and that Zenit could be value to get something here. They have been working on clean sheets in their last 4 friendlies, keeping 3 clean sheets and should not lose this ( all things being equal – team news etc!)
- this match is being played in Austria from what I can gather.Do note that the likes of Hulk ( he must be angry after the World Cup and you don’t want to make him angry) may be absent from Zenit’s ranks.Russia didn’t play the World Cup so the Russian national contingent should be full strength.
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6pm – Osnabruck v Dortmund – 1.52 away
Standout stats
- this is a german friendly
- 3-2 to Osnabruck in a 2012 friendly
Osnabruck
- a 3 Liga team so logically Dortmund should win with ease, all things being equal
- only 2 wins in 9 matches in all competitions were 1-0 wins
- unbeaten in 10 at home in all competitions,with 2 consecutive score draws finishing it off.
- both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5 friendlies
- have not won their last 3 friendlies, score drawing the last 2
- 3 draws and a 1-0 win at home in their last 4 home friendlies. Did lose 0-3 to bayer leverkusen at home in 2011
Dortmund
- 8 consecutive friendly wins part of a run of 18 wins in 20 friendlies.
- have scored 3-3-4-4-0-3-2-2-3-6-3-4-4 in recent friendlies
- both teams have scored in the last 6 friendlies
Profitable in-play opporunities
- as both teams would seem likely to score, lay any side 2-0 up in this match.
- plenty of goals too so lay any late 0-0 and take a chance on laying 0-0 halftime score as late as you can.
- Dortmund clearly favoured here as they take friendlies very seriously.
———————————————————————————————————--630pm – Maccabi Tel Aviv v FC Santa Coloma – 1.11 home
Standout stats
- wow – only 1-0 to Maccabi Tel aviv from the first leg.This match is apparently being played in larnaka so no real home advantage for Maccabi.
- I am not going to research this again. We know that FC Santa Coloma are an Andorran league side, and as such should really get stuffed (8 losses and a 1-0 win in 9 Champions League meetings)
- 1.11 as you know suggests 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil for Tel Aviv.
- Look perhaps at laying the 0-0 halftime score if these goals are expected and there are no goals after half an hour.
- The ultra speculative will be backing the 0-0 fulltime correct score pre-match and hope Maccabi Tel Aviv struggle again, given they are playing in a neutral venue.
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630pm – Rot-Weiss Erfurt v QPR – 2.36 –
Standout stats
- 3 liga v Premiership and logically that 2.36 looks tasty!
- 8 losses and a win in their last 9 friendlies, part of a run of 11 without a draw
- have lost their last 7 home friendlies, failing to score in 4 of their last 5.
- last set of friendlies were in 2012 where QPR won 3 and drew against Augsburg
- a tough match to call but it seems Rot-Weiss are opposable in any friendly they play in. Anything like a strong QPR team should have too much for a team from the 3rd tier in Germany
645pm – The New Saints v Slovan Bratislava – 1.67 away
Standout stats
- what a turn around in the odds! The market now respects the new Saints in this Champions League ( CL) 2nd leg tie. It’s only 1-0 to Slovan from the first tie
- failed to score in 5 of their last 6 CL matches so a major problem as a Slovan away goal should nail this tie
- lost their last 2 CL matches 1-0
- a lot livelier at home, albeit losing 1-3 in 2 of their last 3 home CL matches
- have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away CL matches, from 2009( 2), 2011(2) and 2013
- tactics seem obvious. The New saints will need a clean sheet, and Slovan a 0-0 or a 0-1 to nail the tie
- Concern with both sides re scoring in the CL , the New Saints generally, and Slovan away. Can we back 0-0 pre-match and hope for a really nervy affair?
- this is 3-0 for Partizan Belgrade against their Faroe hosts from the first leg. No away goal for the Faroes team should sound the death knell toniight.
- HB need a 3-0 to gain parity , and Partizan merely need an away goal to really nail this 2nd leg Champions Leg tie.