There will be no live chats this weekend. I wanted to do 2 sessions as I missed out last weekend but the consensus via emails is that a lot of regulars will not be attending. I have researched as many matches as I can and will try to be on twitter a bit later on.
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1245pm – Motherwell v Celtic – 1.65 away
Standout stats
- Celtic have won without conceding in the last 3 head to heads
- Celtic have won the title so this is a dead rubber for them. Motherwell have 2nd spot in their sights.
Quick research. Motherwell home matches tend to see goals so a good chance of over 2.5 goals - Motherwell have scored in their last 8 matches overall and last 7 at home
- 81% over 2.5 goals at home
- 32 goals scored at home
- Celtic have lost only one match all season. 5 wins and a draw since their last defeat. Celtic would like to keep up the record of scoring in all matches.
- 8 0-1’s at halftime away and 6 0-0’s at halftime away so will these be the halftime scorelines?
- devastating 2nd half with 32 away goals scored.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- a dead rubber match so I am reluctant to put anything forward. The stats tell me to expect an over 2.5 goals match, and if 0-0 at halftime, for Celtic to score 2nd half.
- Despite 3 consecutive wins to nil in head to heads, Celtic might concede today to help the overs cause.
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1245pm – Tottenham ( Spurs)v Fulham – 1.55 home
Standout stats
- Spurs have won 4 of the last 5 head to heads. The last time these 2 met at Tottenham, Fulham won 0-1
- this is 6th v 18th and 3 points will see Fulham possibly out of the bottom 3
- A top 4 berth is within Spurs grasp but a hope Arsenal and Everton slip up ( as they have done recently)
Spurs
- only 2 wins in 6 matches
- remain really effective at home. 6 wins and 2 defeats ( Man City and Arsenal) in their last 8 home matches
- in 3 of the last 4 matches, Spurs have scored at least 3 goals
- 2-0, 1-0, 5-1 at home to bottom 4 sides
- no draw in 8 at home
- 5 0-0’s at halftime at home
Fulham
- talk about winning at the right time. 3 wins in 5 matches ( only Everton and Man City beat them) have left things in Fulham’s hands and the confidence snowball must be gaining momentum?
- only 5 clean sheets all season
- still it remains that Fulham have not won against top 8 this season, with 14 defeats and a 2-2 draw away to Man Utd
- have conceded in their last 16 away matches
- 8 0-0’s at halftime away and 15 all season suggests an obvious tactic first half
Profitable in-play opportunities
- statistically Fulham do not win top 8, in fact they overwhelmingly lose. And 5 clean sheets all season suggests if they win it will be a 1-2 as was the case in the last away match
- Spurs remain strong at home, 6 wins and 2 defeats ( Man City and Arsenal) in their last 8.
- Fulham have a large percentage of 0-0’s at halftime so watch out perhaps for a 0-0 at halftime.
- spurs are solid at home and Fulham poor away to top 8 so statistically this is Spurs’ match to lose, but 2 consecutive Fulham wins will give them some hope.
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2pm – AC Milan v Livorno – 1.29 home
Standout stats
- only one recent head to head of relevance was a 2-2 and it was Milan who salvaged a point. Kind of sums up their season really.
- this is 8th v 18th. Top 5 is within Milan’s grasp. Livorno remain bottom 3 with a win ( on goal difference)
AC Milan
- 4 consecutive wins and as we are seeing more frequently, teams needing a win are putting together runs ( Crystal Palace, even Fulham!!)
- 3 clean sheets in 4 now for Milan
- have failed to score in only 5 all season
- At home, it’s against teams above them that Milan falter. Milan have beaten 14th and lower at home, but note there were 3 1-0 wins there
- 4 0-0’s at halftime at home
Livorno
- just as Milan are getting the wins, wins still elude Livorno.
- 4 losses and a draw in their last 5 matches
- 2 consecutive 2-0 losses away
- only 5 wins all season
- only 3 clean sheets all season
- have lost to all top 12 away
- have conceded in their last 22 matches
- 3 0-0’s at halftime away
- have conceded 34 away goals
Profitable in-play opportunities
- 2-2 last time these 2 met. The market expects home advantage and recent form to be telling.
- Statistically, of course Livorno are more likely to draw or lose than win.
- Milan seem comfortable at home to teams below them so the expectation is for a trouble free afternoon. Livorno desperately need points
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2pm – Parma v Inter – 2.66 home
Standout stats
- Inter are unbeaten in 2013 with a win and 3-3 draw v Parma
- Parma though are unbeaten at home in the last 3 head to heads
- this is 6th v 5th . 3rd spot is out of grasp for these 2.
- the odds tell you this is a tight one.
Parma
- a run of 17 unbeaten ended with 3 consecutive losses , but now Parma have won and drawn their last 2 matches.
- Parma are unbeaten in 10 home matches
- have failed to score in only 6 matches all season
- only 2 defeats at home have come against 1st and 2nd
- no defeat in 10 at home
- have scored in their last 11 matches
- 6 0-0’s at halftime at home
- 3 0-0’s at home
Inter Milan
- only 1 loss in 11 matches
- 2-0-2-2-4 scored away in their last 5 matches
- have failed to score in only 6 matches all season
- 4 losses away v 1st, 3rd, 9th and 13th
- have scored and conceded in 4 of the 5 matches played away v top 7 sides
- 4 0-0’s at halftime away
- have scored 15 1st half and 17 2nd half goals away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- the odds and the league positions tell you this is a toughie. What do the stats say? The same! Both sides are in good home form ( Parma) and good overall form ( Inter). Inter shade it on recent form.
- I cannot split these 2 and neither can the market.
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230pm – Braunschweig v B Munich – 1.44 away
Standout stats
- a routine 2-0 win when Braunschweig ( Braun) visited Bayern earlier
- this is a dead rubber for Bayern, but a must win for Braun who sit bottom.
- Since winning the title, Bayern have drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 3 matches so are wholly unpredictable
- They have a champions league match with Real Madrid on the 23rd April, so as with Augsburg, expect a Bayern Munich 2nd string which makes this 1.44 as appealing as an evening with Noel Edmunds
- only 2 defeats in 8 for Braun so they are trying.
- 4 matches remain to salvage their season.
- they have scored in 1-2 and 2-3 defeats v 2nd and 3rd
Profitable in-play opportunities
- a real reluctance to involve myself with Bayern matches, suffice to say that at 1.44 they are layable here in light of the fact Braun have had 2 tight matches v 2nd and 3rd, and Bayern are likely to make wholesale changes with the Champions League looming
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230pm – Dortmund v Mainz – 1.4 home
Standout stats
- 6 wins and a 1-1 draw favours Dortmund in head to heads
- Dortmund will look to remain 2nd/3rd for Champions League football. Mainz have a top 4 spot within their grasp but are running out of matches.
Dortmund
- only 2 defeats in 13 matches. Now the Champions League is over, Dortmund are clicking back into gear. 4 wins in 5 matches, scoring 2+ goals
- have failed to score in only 5 matches all season
- 6 clean sheets in their last 10 matches
- only 1 win at home in 7 matches agianst the top 10
- 73% over 2.5 goals at home
- 5 0-0’s at halftime at home
- only 1 0-0 all season
- have scored 23 of their 34 goals in the 2nd half at home
Mainz
- 3 defeats and 2 wins in their last 5
- lost their last 2 away matches
- have failed to score in only 6 matches
- have drawn 0-0 away to 3rd and won 0-1 away to 4th
- 73% over 2.5 goals away from home.
- 5 0-0’s at halftime away
- have conceded 22 of their 30 away conceded goals 2nd half
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Dortmund are favoured in head to heads quite convincingly. But there is an argument for Mainz being stubborn bar stewards. They have drawn 0-0 and won 0-1 v 3rd and 4th away. They have also failed to score in only 6 matches all season, so are more likely to score than not.
- 2nd half action looks assured if this is tight at halftime. Dortmund have scored 23 2nd half goals at home and Mainz have conceded 22 2nd half away.
- Both teams could reasonably score today ( which would buck Mainz’s results v 3rd and 4th where they kept clean sheets)
- Dortmund are the form side here and since the shackles of the Champions league have been loosened they are the Dortmund of old. That is priced to continue today.
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230pm – W Bremen v Hoffenheim – 2.36 away
Standout stats
- both sides have scored and conceded in the last 6 head to heads
- 3 score draws in the last 4
- this is 12th v 9th. Werder are 6 points clear of relegation currently with 4 matches ( 12 points available) remaining
Werder
- only 4 wins in 19 matches
- have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches
- have failed to score in only 3 of their last 13 matches
- have only won 2 matches against teams above them, those were 1-0’s
- 4 0-0’s at halftime at home, is about 27% of matches.
- have scored first in only 5 of 15 home matches
Hoffenheim
- only 2 losses in 12 matches.
- have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches
- have failed to score in only 4 matches all season
- only 2 clean sheets all season and one came in their last match
- only 5 under 2.5 goals matches all season but they have had 2 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches – most un-Hoffenheim like
- have scored and conceded in 11 of 14 away matches and have conceded in all matches away
- 2 0-0’s at halftime away
- have scored first in only 7 of 15 away matches.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- head to heads show both teams scoring, recent Werder home form shows both teams scoring, Hoffenheim have had only 2 clean sheets all season and failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals usually comes in with ease with Hoff but they have had 2 consecutive unders matches.
- Hoffenheim should concede at some point as they have in all aways, and are favoured as the most inform of the 2 sides.
- The usual rollcall with Hoffenheim is a goal before halftime at least, both teams scoring and over 2.5 ( up to over 3.5) goals.
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3pm – Cardiff v Stoke – 2.54 home
Standout stats
- matches become unreadable at this stage of the season, and a 2.54 quote for the home side recounts this is tough to call. But do the stats have anything to reveal?
- 2 consecutive 0-0’s in head to heads, one in the league and one in the FA Cup
- this is 19th v 10th. They’ll be thinking of a holiday in the Potteries, but in the Valleys they’ll be looking at 3 points which will be going some way to helping Premiership survival. 13th place is only 6 points away – that’s how crazy it is at the bottom
Cardiff
- only 3 wins in 18 matches and only 7 wins all season. Cardiff did win their last match 0-1 away at Southampton which is a very good result
- that was their 2nd clean sheet in 18 matches!
- Cardiff at home remain poor against the top 14, only beating Manchester City in what turned out to be a highly anomolous result.Cardiff have failed to score at home v 4th, 5th, 6th., 8th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th
- 6 0-0’s at halftime at home is about 35% of matches
- have only scored 5 goals at home in the 1st half
Stoke
- only 2 defeats in 11 and quite obviously Stoke are the form side here – I’m surprised they are not shorter priced, but that is down to the fact they are going nowhere fast, safe as houses esconsed in mid-table mediocrity.
- 6 of Stoke’s last 7 defeats away were to nil and the last 2 teams to beat then were Manchester City and Chelsea
- Well, well, well, this could get interesting. Against the bottom 3, Stoke have lost 1-0 to Fulham and Sunderland, and even a 1-1 v 4th bottom Norwich City, so I see a sliver of hope here for Cardiff
- Stoke have conceded in their last 9 away matches
- 6 0-0’s at halftime away matches Cardiff
- have conceded 21 of their 33 away goals in the 2nd half
Profitable in-play opportunities
- the odds tell a story. This is a toughie to crack. Needs must for Cardiff against a team with nothing really to play for.
- BUT Stoke are easily the form side here, only Chelsea and Man City have beaten theim in their last 11 matches.
- Cardiff have failed to score at home against 7 of the top 14 they have played. This is a worry.
- Cardiff have kept only 2 clean sheets in 18 matches. That is a worry. They did keep an attack-minded Southampton out so could do the same against Stoke
- Note Stoke have lost 1-0 away to bottom 3 sides.
- A speculative tickle at 1-0 in a match making little appeal.
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3pm – Aston Villa v Southampton ( Saints) – 2.24 away
Standout stats
- a 2 match winning run for Saints ended with a 2-3 Villa win last time these 2 met
- this is 14th v 8th. It’s feet-up time for Southampton. I don’t think they can go any higher and they;re not getting relegated.
- Villa are 4 points from relegation so bang in there fighting.
Aston Villa
- only 2 wins in 10 matches
- Villa have lost their last 2 home matches 1-2 and 1-4
- have kept only 3 clean sheets in 20 matches
- no draws at home to top 12 because they have lost 10 matches and beat 2nd and 3rd at home
- 7 0-0’s at halftime at home
- have scored first in only 4 matches at home
Saints
- 3 wins and 5 losses in in their last 8 matches includes 3 losses in 4.
- 3 losses in their last 4 away matches
- have failed to score in only 5 matches this season
- all bar 4 defeats this season home and away have come against teams 6th and higher
- have only scored 1 goal maximum against teams 7th-17th away from home
- have scored in their last 11 away matches
- no draw in 9
- 5 0-0’s at halftime away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- 2 out of form sides. ASton Villa have kept only 3 clean sheets all season so that is the first stats angle in. They should concede.
- Aston Villa have avoided the draw up to now against top 12
- Saints have trouble scoring more than 1 goal against 7th-17th away from home. Will that continue against a rocky Aston Villa?
Do note that Saints are entering dead rubber territory and needs must for Villa.
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3pm – West Ham v C Palace – 2.36 home
Standout stats
- well, there’s a surprise. 1-0 Palace win earlier in the season.
- this is a London derby so note that.
- 12th v 11th. Hats off to Pulis for a magnificent managerial job in breaching the 40 point barrier. West Ham are 7 points clear of 3rd bottom
West Ham
- no draw in 11 and 5 defeats in their last 7 matches
- have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches
- West Ham’s last 9 home matches have seen at least one team scoring 2+ goals
- it’s a league of 2 halves. West Ham have lost 8 and won 1 at home to teams above them ( that’s where Palace now find themselves after that win against Everton).
- 6 0-0’s at halftime at home
Crystal Palace
- I think they’re safe now. 10 points clear of relegation and 12 points are available.
- 4 consecutive wins now and a stats busting 2-3 win against Everton ( their first away win v top 10 away)
- 2 consecutive away wins scoring 3 goals
- 4 clean sheets in 6 matches
- 1-0 wins v 12th ( home) 13th ( home/away) and 14th ( home/away)
- 8 0-0’s at halftime away
- have conceded 14 of their 23 away concesssions in the 2nd half
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Palace are blasting the stats patterns out of the window now so I feel they are a bit unreadable. I mean, 3 goals in each of their last 2 away matches? That’s not the Pulis team I recognise. The 5 1-0 wins c 12th-13th-14th is more in keeping.
- The fact Palace are safe now might see a slip up? West Ham certainly would love to join them on 40 points.
- A toughie for me to read. Normally I’d back the 0-0 pre match but then we saw goals before halftime v Everton
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5pm – Galatasaray v Kasimpasa – 1.56 home
Standout stats
- both sides have scored in 5 of their last 6 head to heads
- Galatasary at home have won the last 3 head to heads and conceded
- this is 3rd v 7th. galatasary want 2nd place. Kasimpasa could conceivably break into the top 4.
Galatasary
- came from behind to win 2-5 in the cup mid week, hence my interest here.
- only 4 defeats all season, 2 have come in the last 4 matches.
- 9 consecutive homewins ended with a 0-1 loss and returned with a confidence boosting 1-0 win against Fenerbahce
- have failed to score in only 6 matches all season
- only 1 loss at home was v bottom. have won all home matches v top 13
- no home 0-0
Kasimpasa
- only 2 wins in 18 matches includes 6 0-0’s,
- have only lost away to 1st and 6th but have had 8 away draws
- no win in 9 away
- 5 away 0-0’s
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Galatasary are the form side here with only 4 defeats but they did recently lose at home to bottom side. That was the only defeat this season
- Tend to win v top 13 at home
- no win in 9 away for Kasimpasa. I don’t like the frequency of 0-0’s for Kasimpasa but Galatasary have not had a 0-0 at home so I would lay 0-0 low and late
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530pm – Chelsea v Sunderland – 1.22 home
Standout stats
- both sides have scored in 6 of their last 7 matches
- Chelsea have won the last 6 Premiership matches
- this is 2nd v bottom. The point Sunderland salvaged against City ensures they are still in with a chance of survival, albeit a slim one.
- Chelsea must win in order to keep the pressure on Liverpool and take advantage of Man City’s slip up at home at shorter odds v Sunderland
Chelsea
- only 5 defeats all season, 2 1-0 losses away pre-Champions League.
- 10 wins and a draw in their last 11 home matches
- 12 clean sheets in their last 18 matches
- unbeaten at home
- have beaten 18th and 19th at home
- have only failed to score 2 goals at least in 2 matches at home
- 6 consecutive home clean sheets
- 4 0-0’s at halftime at home
- have scored 20 first half and 22 2nd half goals at home.
Sunderland
- only 6 wins all season
- no win in 9 includes 7 losses and a recent 2-2 with Manchester City who were shorter priced than Chelsea are today
- have conceded 2-2-4 away to top 4 sides
- 3 0-0’s at halftime away
- only 2 0-0’s at fulltime away
- have conceded 32 away goals and 11 in the last 1/4 hour away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- was Sunderland’s away performance against Man City a one-off. City were shorter priced .
- Sunderland still have not won in 10 matches and are likely, stats wise, to concede at least 2 goals. This is backed up by Chelsea scoring at least 2 in all bar 2 matches at home.
- Chelsea have a clean sheet in head to heads and that is usually a solid sign. We can only hope for 2 Sunderland goals today!!
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530pm – Juventus v Bologna – 1.2 home
Standout stats
- Juventus have scored 2 goals in their last 3 head to head wins. The last 2 head to heads were 2-0
- this is 1st v 14th.8 points clear of Roma, Juventus should have this title wrapped up soon.
- Bologna are 3 points clear of relegation.
- There are 5 matches left in this season so Juventus need to win 3 more to be guaranteed of the title ( I may have to phone Carole Vorderman)
Juventus
- only 2 defeats all season
- have failed to score in only 1 match this season.
- 7 clean sheets in their last 9 matches
- have won all home matches
- have only failed to score 2 goals + in 3 home matches
- only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
- have scored 26 1st half and 16 2nd half goals at home
Bologna
- have won only 5 matches all season.
- only 3 wins in 23 matches
- have failed to score in 6 of their last 10 matches
- have lost away to 2nd , 3rd or 4th without scoring.
- have failed to score in the 3 matches played v top 2 so far this season.
- 6 0-0’s at halftime away ( 38% of matches)
- have conceded 14 1st half and 15 2nd half away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- bar a Palace like shock ( v Everton) this has Juventus 2-0 written all over it. It should be a reliable DRT were Bologna to manufacture the first goal or a concerted 0-0.
- Juventus tend to score before half time.
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8pm – Fiorentina v Roma – 2.44 away
Standout stats
- Roma won the 2013 head to heads with a 90th minute 0-1 and a 2-1 home win
- this is 4th v 2nd but there are 21 points difference.
- 5 matches remain and it’s not a mathematical impossibility yet that Roma could win the title. They have an 8 point deficit and must carry on going for 3 points and hope Juventus slip up. An 8 point deficit and 15 points available. If Roma lose and Juventus win, it will be an 11 point deficit with 12 points available and you’d think that will be it really for Roma.
- This therefore is critical to staying in an unlikely title hunt
Fiorentina
- have lost only 1 of their last 6, winning 4 of those matches
- all losses at home have come against 3rd-9th
- have scored and conceded at home v 1st, 3rd, 5th and 6th
- have conceded in their last 5 home matches
- 69% over 2.5 goals contrasts with Roma’s miserly 38% over 2.5 goals away from home
- only 2 0-0’s at halftime at home so we might get goal action before halftime?
- no 0-0 at home
Roma
- remain the form side here simple because they have only lost 2 matches this season
- They are on a superb 7 match winning run scoring 3-2-2-2-4-3-3 in those matches. Superb stuff
- have failed to score in only 5 matches this season
- have only lost away ( and all season) to 1st and 3rd
- have scored in their last 7 matches
- 6 0-0’s at halftime away
- have only conceded 3 first half goals away, scoring 11
- score about half as many goals away as theydo at home
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Roma are the form team of the 2 on account of their 7 match winning run, but Fiorentina are in decent recent nick themselves with 4 wins in 6 matches
- Fiorentina have a knack of scoring and conceded against top teams at home. Will that continue today?
- we have contrasting over 2.5 goals percentages and halftime score stats where I would prefer congruency.
- this is a must win for Roma in order to keep Juventus from getting the title. Do must wins usually win?