Lyngby at 1..44 away justified their odds yesterday with a 0-3 win. The match was 0-0 at halftime so you could have researched at soccerstats at halftime to see whether a 0-0 lay was a goer.
Crvena Zvezda won 0-1, not quite in keeping with a 1.39 quote.
Plzen were laboured to say the least , winning 2-0 but winning all the same.
In the less than consistent Russian Cup, Rostov at 1.43 odds won 2-1 at home
It took a 40th minute penalty for 1.67 shots Copenhagen to win 0-1. The match was as tight as the head to heads suggested it would be.
In Germany I went with the angle that Hannover would concede at some stage, so layed them when they took the lead. Luckily they conceded next. The match was 1-3 at halftime and a good opportunity to lay an away side 1-3 up at halftime. Frankfurt made it interesting at 2-3 in the 68th minute.
A very tight match in Seria B saw Palermo scrape a 29th minute 1-0 win.
For those interested in Belgium, Standard were 0-2 down at home and went on to equalise 2-2 – faith in the 1.5 odds would have paid off.
Today is not a very good day. I have done some matches but we have predominantly a Dutch Juliper league which I really don’t like.
I think my time would be better spent on the weekend’s research – better teams, better leagues.
3pm – Blackburn v Yeovil – 1.66 home
Standout stats
- Blackburn Rovers won 0-1 earlier this season against Yeovil
- this is 10th v 24th (bottom).
- A top 6 spot is there within Blackburn’s grasp so they must win when expected to.
- Yeovil are 3 points away from 2nd bottom
Blackburn
- unbeaten in 8 matches scoring at least 2 matches in 7 of their last 8 matches.
- 2 consecutive 2-0 home wins.
- have beaten 22nd and 23rd at home 3-2 5-2. Could this follow suit? Well, Blackburn are scoring at least 2 with regularity.
- only 5 losses at home, and 3 of them were 0-1
- 9 0-0’s at halftime at home – 43% of matches.
- Rhodes is the big impact man at home with 12 goals at home.
- have scored 15 goals in both halves at home
Yeovil
- only 4 wins in 24 matches.
- have scored and conceded in their last 7 matches
- only 4 clean sheets in their last 24 matches
- 6 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 8
- have not beaten the top 10 home and away
- have scored in their last 7 overall and conceded in their last 9 overall
- 6 0-0’s at halftime away
- no 0-0 away
- have conceded 29 of their 41 conceded goals in the 2nd half.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- must win for both sides, Blackburn in a push for a play-off place and Yeovil to get out of the relegation zone.
- Blackburn are scoring 2 goals with regularity recently, and have done so against bottom 3 at home ( albeit conceding 2 as well).
- Yeovil are yet to beat the top 10 home or away, so statistically should not win today.
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3pm – Wigan v Reading – 1.92 home
This is not a match which appeals to me. 5th v 6th and both desperate for the points which will help the play-off cause. Wigan have the game in hand. This is too tight a match and with too much riding on the result, we cannot reasonably say that Wigan are the overwhelming favourites.————————————————————————————————————
7pm – Jong PSV v Achilles 29 – 1.38 home
Standout stats
- 3-2 to Achilles when 2-0 down in the last head to head
- this is 14th v 20th ( bottom)
Jong PSV
- 4 consecutive defeats
- only 10 matches under 2.5 goals all season and there are 3 matches remaining
- have failed to score in only 2 of their last 27 matches
- 3 wins and a 2-2 draw at home to bottom 5 sides
- 77% over 2.5 goals at home
- only 1 0-0 at home
Achilles 29
- no matter what, Achilles will remain bottom 2. I think the bottom side goes down
- only 2 wins in 24 matches
- only 6 clean sheets all season
- as with PSV< only 10 under 2.5 goals matches all season
- have scored 3+ in 6 of their last 7 away matches
- have conceded at least 2 goals + in all bar 3 away matches
- have conceded in their last 12 away
- 77% over 2.5 goals.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- not a league I research at all. What is clear is statistically we’re more likely to see over 2.5 goals at least.
- Jong PSV tend to score and Achilles 29 tend to concede.
- Both teams could score today .
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7pm – Telstar v Dordrecht – 1.59 away
Standout stats
- 2-0 to Telstar the last time these 2 met at telstar
- 4-3 last match at Dordrecht
- 17th v 2nd
- Dordrecht are 2 points shy of 1st place so must win to keep the pressure up
Telstar
- only 1 win in 5 matches
- just lost 0-8 to 3rd at home
- failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and in their last 2 at home
- 5 clean sheets only all season
- totally inconsistent at home. Beat 1st, lose to 3rd, beat 4th, lost to 5th, beat 6th , lost to 7th beat 8th. You get the idea. An inconsistent team is not a good trading team
- And so I will end the research there. I cannot trust Telstar and cannot read telstar.
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7pm – Willem II v Emmen – 1.26 home
Standout stats
- a 1-0 win for Emmen earlier in the season
- this is 1st v 13th. Willem II and Dordrecht have the title between them it seems so expect no mercy from the home side.
Willem II
- unbeaten in 11 matches with 4 goal laden consecutive wins
- 7 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches
- have failed to score in only 6 matches all season
- only 2 clean sheets in 14 matches
- have scored at least 2 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches
- only 3 defeats at home, 2 were 0-1 v 3rd and 4th
- against 12th and lower at home, 6 wins and a 1-2 loss v 16th
- have scored in their last 11 matches
- only 2 0-0’s all season were at home
Emmen
- no draw in 10 matches included 6 defeats
- only 1 win in their last 12 away matches. 3 consecutive away losses.
- 15 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 18
- have only won 1 match away to teams above them
- 4-2-2-4-2-4 conceded away v 2nd to 7th inclusive
- only 2 0-0’s away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- it looks like over 2.5 goals at a minimum here. emmen tend to conceded 2-4 goals away v top 7
- both teams could reasonably score.
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730pm – Atl Madrid v Elche – 1.22 home
Standout stats
- a rare treat on a Friday.
- this is 1st v 15th . Atl Madrid are 3 points clear at the top. Elche are 4 points from the relegation zone.
- Madrid won 0-2 at Elche earlier in the season with 2 2nd half goals
Atl Madrid
- only 3 losses all season came away from home.
- 7 consecutive wins with 6 clean sheets
- have failed to score in only 4 matches all season
- all wins at home bar 3 draws which came against top 5 sides
- 17 at home without defeat.
- 4 0-0’s at halftime at home
- ultra consistent scoring at home, 21 1st half and 25 2nd half goals
- no opponent has led at halftime at home
Elche
- only 4 wins in 19 matches , 3 were 1-0 and one 2-0. Will Elche really keep Atl Madrid quiet?
- have lost 7 and drawn only 2 in their last 9 away matches
- have not won at match away v top 13 and lost 3-0 and 4-0 v 2nd and 3rd away
- have conceded in their last 12 away matches
- no win in 11 away
- only 2 0-0’s at halftime away
- no 0-0 away
- have conceded 17 first half and 18 2nd half goals away.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- this could be a win to nil for Atl Madrid with home advantage. Elche’s recent wins have been to nil, and having lost 3-0 and 4-0 to top 3 away, it seems a stretch to see an Elche clean sheet.
- We could see a goal before halftime given the strong Atl Madrid home scoring record.
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730pm – St Etienne v Rennes – 1.66 home
Standout stats
- this is one of a growing band of matches which favours the home side historically, so as per the odds on this occasion.
- this is 4th v 14th . 3rd is there but relies on slip ups. Rennes seem safe although not mathematically so.
St Etienne
- only 3 defeats in 17 all came away from home
- unbeaten in 9 home matches
- have failed to score in only 7 matches this season
- only 2 defeats at home against 5th and 9th
- have scored in all home matches
- 7 0-0’s at halftime at home and 8 1-0’s at halftime at home
- have scored 21 of their 31 goals in the 2nd half at home
- no opponent has led at St Etienne this season
Rennes
- have a reasonable away record v top 9 , losing to only 2nd.
- have scored in their last 7 away matches
- 5 0-0’s at halftime away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- not much angle I can get into Rennes . They only went down 0-1 v Monaco and their away record v top 9 sees them tough to beat. So that will have to be accounted for.
- Do note that home teams are favoured in head to heads, and that St Etienne are unbeaten in 9 home matches so it seems the market has it about right?
- I am not sure of the halftime stats, as the 0-0 is quite high
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