Wipe those tears from your eyes.

There are good reasons to weep, sure. Donald Trump is going to be President…

Boris Johnson is Foreign Secretary…

Honey G is apparently considered ‘new talent’.

But more importantly, the next issue of the What Really Wins Money newsletter is the last one of 2016 and there will be break next month until the New Year.

But dry your eyes – on the upside, the issue is nearly ready to go to press!

In this final missive of the year, I’ve reviewed 2016’s betting action. It is amazing how many topics, strategies and systems are covered in the newsletter over the course of 12 months.

We also have a resident Statman who gives you totally unique horse racing betting angles not found anywhere else.

This month, new contributor Matt Warren shares an excellent strategy for nailing football accumulators and permutations. This is one to have at the ready for a new football season. It really gives you a superb chance of bringing in a big-odds accumulator.

Staying with football, I put on my best deerstalker and – in true Sherlock Holmes fashion… (with Lucy Liu as my Watson (please) – I take a look at a new football e-book on the market. I also demonstrate how you can get an idea for free from readily available information, as well as giving my take on a great football niche I use day in and day out.

The Patriarch continues his focus on the most profitable National Hunt trainers, and at which racecourses they excel. Did you know, for instance, that in certain races at Cheltenham (I chose this venue as we have racing their for the next few days), David Pipe is the trainer to follow.

He has also caught football niche fever with a great little strategy for uncovering half-time/full-time profits.

The Statman this month continues his look at the National Hunt Season, uncovering how you can Back the statistically best jockeys in their best Jumps race  types (be they bumpers, hurdles or chases).

And there’s the usual round up of my Homegrown Systems. Good news, largely speaking.

A number of strategies have made a profit for another year. Some strategies are into their third year of profit which can only be good news moving forward – they impart some confidence that 2017 will be another profitable year.

But we end with the Systems and Tipsters updates, and this year has really been about Stagnation versus Momentum.

As I was looking over 2016’s articles (members can access all of this back issue content here. I noted how many poor-performing horse racing tipsters there were.

The marketing would have you believe otherwise. You know the sort ‘third consecutive month of profits’ and so on.

What they didn’t shout from the rooftops however was that the betting bank was at the same level as it was in March 2015… funny how that never got a mention in the marketing! And these tipsters had the gall to charge £48 per month!

I describe these tipsters as ‘stagnant’. If you can get access to their archive of results, here’s a simple exercise. Look at the betting bank as it stands today and try to find out the last time the betting bank was at this level. It reveals long-term performance.

Contrast this with ‘momentum’ tipsters. A momentum tipster for me is one who has a) profited since my trial began b) profited for the year to date and c) profited over the last month.

And believe me folks, there are momentum tipsters out there. They are rare but they are there! I reveal a few in the Systems and Tipsters Update and do my best to find these instead of reporting on the terrible stagnant tipsters.

v6

Cheltenham-tastic!

There’s a strong Cheltenham line up this weekend so what better chance for me to look at some Past Winner Trends for Saturday’s racing…? The last two occasions I have done that in the eletter, I’ve nailed some great winners!

Saturday 12th November

12:40 Cheltenham

We had a 12/1 winner last year but that is very much an anomaly for a race in which the market leaders tend to win. The last four winners were at odds of 15/8 or shorter (prior to the 12/1 winner last year).

Eight of the last ten winners of this race have been either first or second favourites.

I don’t have access to the market yet but would note that the winner is highly likely to come from 1st or 2nd favourites. Second favourites are probably better value and can be backed each-way.

13:15 Cheltenham

It looks like last year was an anomalous year not just for the 12:40 Cheltenham but for this race too.

A 16/1 winner in the last race. The last nine winners prior to this were either first or second favourites, with the biggest price 4/1.

David Pipe has won two of the last four runnings with a 1st and a 2nd favourite. I would be looking to back an 11/4 – 4/1 horse each-way as long as that horse was 2nd favourite.

13:50 Cheltenham

There have been juicier odds for winning this race in the past. I would look to avoid the favourites.

The biggest priced winner has been 25/1 over the last 10 years, with second highest at 12/1.

I would be looking at a horse at odds of 7/1 – 9/1 and back said horse each-way. I hope there are not too many candidates. If there are I would consider backing two horses each-way.

14:25 Cheltenham

Only one favourite has won this race in the last 10 runnings. The odds of the last five winners has been between 7/1 to 12/1.

I would be backing one horse at around 7/1 and another at 10/1 each way here and avoiding the favourites. Historically, it is rare for big priced outsiders to win.

15:00 Cheltenham

No favourite has won the last five runnings. Two of the last three winners have been at odds of 14/1 and 20/1.The biggest priced winner bar these two was 10/1.

David Pipe has won two of the last four runnings of this race and if running a horse at 10/1 or lower, who is not a favourite, I would back his mount each-way.

The 14/1 and 20/1 winners only just won so I think it could be the return of a 7/1 – 10/1 winner, preferably from the Pipe yard.

15:35 Cheltenham

Only two favourites have won this race in the last 10 runnings. The favourite won the last race and based on past history I do not expect a 2nd consecutive favourite winner.

Sam Twiston-Davies has won two of the last four runnings of this race as a jockey for two different trainers.

I am going to go in twice here with an 8/1 horse and a 14/1 horse each way, and preference given to any of those priced horses ridden by Master Sam.

Let’s hope the excellent run of nailing a big priced horse based on odds rather than anything else, continues in this here eletter/blog.

Have a Trump-tastic weekend. I’m off now to buy the whole Honey G back catalogue so I can listen to it over this What Really Wins Money-less December.