The Flat Season-proper begins tomorrow with two easy-to-solve (yeah, right) 22 runner cavalry charges at Doncaster.
For those of you with access to What Really Wins Money I’d highly recommend a look at March’s newsletter article by the Statman, which focuses specifically on those trainers who are ‘early risers’, i.e. tend to have their horses firing and winning early in the Flat season. It’s a great article and gives you an instant feel for who’s on their game this early stage of the season.
There were four specific jockeys in 2015 who really nailed it for punters…
For those of you with access to What Really Wins Money I’d highly recommend a look at March’s newsletter article by the Statman, which focuses specifically on those trainers who are ‘early risers’, i.e. tend to have their horses firing and winning early in the Flat season. It’s a great article and gives you an instant feel for who’s on their game this early stage of the season.
There were four specific jockeys in 2015 who really nailed it for punters…
George Baker had a one-in-five win rate last year! Amazing stuff.
As for the trainers?
Iain Jardine’s winners must have been at tasty odds. He was definitely the punter’s friend last Flat turf season, as was Sean Regan, who I assume is an Irish trainer. On his occasional visits to England, he has given punters a 76 point profit from two winners! Ker-ching! Watch out for that man!
How will I be approaching the Flat season?
Well I’m a logical kind of guy. You know, the kind of logic that says ‘Simon Cowell is on TV so turn the TV off’. It is this logical approach which serves me well with my betting.
Here are some of my logical betting ideas this turf Flat season:
- Lay the favourite if the favourite has a poor draw based on a) www.drawbias.com and b) any mentions at www.racingpost.com.
- Lay in turf Flat maidens, claimers and sellers. It has been such a profitable strategy on the All-Weather that I feel these races types produce poor-performing favourites. My main focus will be on horses priced at odds of 1.5 and lower.
- Note the performance of favourites in all five-furlong sprints on the turf Flat. Five-furlong races are over in the twinkle of an eye and favourites could find themselves in trouble. How about five-furlong handicaps? Let’s make it even more difficult for the favourite.
A few ideas to keep me busy! I’ll report back. If I find a strong angle in, I’ll certainly let you know. The Irish Flat season is upon us too and there’s a meeting at the Curragh on Sunday.
There were some new names atop the Punter’sPal table in 2015. Jockey-wise, it looked like this:
The top two, Ian Queally and Conor McGovern, had less than 50 rides last year, so this year will be easy enough to track. Keep an eye on these two.
Who were the most profitable trainers for us punters?
Aiden O’Brien may have been Champion Trainer but look out for others who could be worth punting on, if repeating 2015’s performances!
W.T. Farrell’s winners last year must have been massively priced to return a 94 point profit! He had few runners on the Irish Flat last year, so, again, will be easy to follow. (And I think I will!) You’ll note some of the big-name trainers are absent. O’Brien, Weld, Bolger, Gosden, Wachman all do very well prize-money-wise, but the only trainer to do well in prize money and as a Punter’s Pal is G.M. Lyons. Watch out for his this season with a near one-in-five strike rate.
I do like the Flat season and will take a look at some of the major race types over coming eletters and how we can profit from them. For instance, I’ll be showing you how to decipher maiden races where there is no form!
Have a great weekend and enjoy those Doncaster Cavalry charges. My tip for the imponderable 22 runner Doncaster Lincoln handicap? Don’t eat yellow snow!
Have a great weekend!