Tracking the progress of my Football Testing Lab…

Here’s my initial impression of how the ideas within the Football Testing Lab are likely to progress.

Lay the 0-0 Halftime Score

What is this particular bet?

Well, at www.betfair.com, in the myriad football betting markets, you will see a halftime score market.

Within this halftime score market there is an opportunity to back, or to lay (oppose) a specific correct score.

I like to lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain matches.

Why have I begun focusing on the first half of matches? Quite simply… THERE’S A STAT FOR THAT!

Head on over to www.soccerstats.com – there you will find the stats for halftime scores.

Here’s a look at Premier League champions Leicester City. 

The column on the far right shows the scorelines at halftime. This is perfect for ascertaining whether we have a strong lay the 0-0 halftime score bet.

Scroll down a little further and you’ll find more stats to help our decision making. In the screenshot below you will see the halftime scores at home and halftime scores away along with their season percentages. Below these tables is a graphic representation of the goals scored and conceded in the First Half and the Second Half. 

Laying the 0-0 halftime score will make a profit over a full season. We have only been part way through a season and there are not enough results to reflect a positive or negative.

Get Better Odds!

By focusing on laying the 0-0 halftime score in football matches which go in-play, you can get yourself better odds by simply delaying.

Yes, I know the Football Testing Lab is Bet and Go, but you can place a lay bet in to be triggered at, say, 1.98 odds (thus ensuring you are always laying at odds on). Or you can choose a time, such as 20 minutes into the first half if 0-0, to start laying the 0-0 halftime score.

I have been laying the 0-0 halftime score for years as part of my trading portfolio at www.drt.club and it has proven to be a consistent money earner.

Both Teams to Score – Yes

There’s a stat for that too!

Head on over to www.soccerstats.com and you’ll find the two tables which can help you decide on this bet. In the table on the left , if you see big figures in the Goals Scored and Goals Conceded rows, then Both teams to score is a good bet. On the right hand table, you can see a percentage figure for Both teams scored. 

The bets have not profited to level stakes since April 7^th when I first started introducing them.

Why?

It could be the time of year. Remember this is the concluding part of the season so teams which need wins would prefer to do so with clean sheets.

That’s my theory…

Or it could be quite simply that we have found a contrarian strategy. Use the Both teams to score stats, find a good candidate for Both teams scoring, and lay it, preferably at odds on…

A full season of course will reveal more.

Both teams to score – yes bets an also increase profitability by a focus on leagues where there are goals.

Holland and Spain are two such leagues which immediately spring to mind. The German Bundesliga can be a veritable goalfest!

The lab report for the current crop of Both teams to score bets is a bad one. I will keep putting up the selections and over time can report back on whether we have a backing or a laying strategy?

Impossible Matches

I had the idea here for recording football matches where the favourite was quoted at odds of 2.4 or higher.

Why do I record these football matches and their results? For me, the bookmaker is telling us that these matches are so tough to call .

There are a number of options as I see it.

Lay the Draw

This option was the favoured option as it had an excellent April and early May.  I need to do even more analysis to determine if there is one draw scoreline which scuppers this lay the draw. So far, for me, 1-1 comes up too often.

Back the biggest price of the 3 match odds selections (home win, draw and away win)

One member has made a 37 point profit from backing the highest priced selection in the match odds market.  I will do more analysis as we get more matches to see what kind of losing runs we should expect.

Lay the Favourite

Let’s face it, when the favourite is at odds of 2.4 or higher, it is not a red hot favourite. By laying the favourite we are covering the draw and the opposing side so strictly when laying one option in a three option market, we have a two thirds chance of success!

Other areas to look at? Over/under 2.5 goals is worth analysing. The Both teams to score –yes and no markets are also worth analysing.

These impossible matches are a work in progress. I have given you some ideas and will continue to look at other potential profitable angles.

The 3 to 1 Evens Bet

With this strategy I look to make an evens return each day (double your money!) by using the bookmaker’s help.

Quite simply I find three favourites whose odds, when added together, come to around 100.

What do I mean?

4:55pm – Slovan Bratislava v Spartak Trnava – 1.47 home  4 – 1 Home Win

5:00pm – Oleksandria v Shakhtar – 1.32 away – 1 – 1 Draw

6:45pm – FC Basel v Lugano – 1.23 home – 3 – 0 Home Win.

Slovan are at odds of 1.47.

Take the 47 there.

Shakhtar are at odds of 1.32

Take the 32 there.

FC Basel are at odds of 1.23

Take the 23 here.

47+32+23 = 103

By placing a level stakes bet on these 3 outcomes , you will make a 103% return. Yes, you’ll double your money from short priced favourites.

Nine losers and seven winners in April is inconclusive so far.

I did have an idea of this as a lay system. Three bets are hard to win with. I was picking the teams purely on the odds and without research. The beginning of April began with six losers and one winner.

My idea therefore was to lay each selection, stopping at a loser (which is a winner for us of course).

I need far more selections to be able to make a strong conclusion as to whether the 3 into 1 bet will be a profitable back bet (it is only just profitable for April) or a profitable lay ladder type of strategy.

More to follow once I have full results for May.

Conclusion

The Football Testing Lab is just over a month old and we really cannot make solid conclusions based on just over a month’s worth of results.

What does my rather large, expanding gut tell me?

Both teams to score – yes, might turn into a good Both teams to score – no betting strategy.

Laying the 0-0 halftime score I am confident will profit throughout the season.

Impossible matches? Backing the biggest price of the three selections has profited early on. Laying the draw (with trading in mind) is also another angle my rather large gut is telling me to follow.

The 3 into 1 bet? The backers are winning this. I will be trying to select short priced teams I think will lose or draw. I do prefer this as a lay strategy as it is harder to pick three winners.

I hope you’re enjoying the Football Testing Lab. If you have any ideas you’d like me to follow, please get in touch.