The world and his wife are going Cheltenham crazy in the run up to the Cheltenham Festival (which has in the past coincided with my birthday on 13 March – please send all presents, chocolate cake, bottles of bubbly and six-packs of Guinness to What Really Wins Towers to arrive no later than 13 March – thank you).
I thought I would share with you some online resources where you can get some superb stats for the up-coming festival.
At The Races: http://microsite.attheraces.com/cheltenham/
This micro site is an excellent starting point and I want to draw your attention to the jockey and trainer stats for the festival.
Once you are at the site, head on over to the ‘TRENDSETTING’ section of the site. There you will find trainers and jockeys, and a table of the best and worst trainers and jockeys in the last 10 years of the festival.
This part of the site shows the most profitable trainers and jockeys and those with the most winners. These are not one and the same!
Willie Mullins sent out 8 winners last year (and if you want to know his best runners, then take a look at February’s What Really Wins Money Cheltenham Special – now with FREE Guinness glass stain on cover for each reader). But if you had backed all of Mullins’ horses in the last 5 years, you’d have made a 26 point loss! Yikes.
What this trainer section of the trend-spotters tells us is that Willie Mullins’ 5 to 6 year olds and runners over 2 miles ½ furlong to 2 miles 4 ½ furlongs made a huge profit. The profits here to 1 point stakes are 93 points for both age and distance stats! Something to chew on eh?
Work your way through the trainers and note which horses in terms of age, hurdlers or chasers, race distance and so forth, tend to make us the punters the most money when being backed.
Paul Nicholls, at the festival, has a terrible record with his chasers (11 winners in 174 runnings). The most profitable stat for Nicholls at the festival? A 52-point profit backing handicapped horses in the weights off 10 stone 11 lbs to 11 stone.
Watch out for Nicky Henderson horses who have run within the last 45 days: they show a 58-point profit.
Jonjo O’Neill tends to specialise in runners over distances of 3 miles or further: he has won punters a solid 68 points profit over the last 10 festivals.
David Pipe has been the punters’ friend when sending out horses rated 132 to 138 with a 48-point profit over the last 10 festivals.
Do make sure you note the trainers without a single winner at the festival! There’s a long list!
I thought I would share with you some online resources where you can get some superb stats for the up-coming festival.
At The Races: http://microsite.attheraces.com/cheltenham/
This micro site is an excellent starting point and I want to draw your attention to the jockey and trainer stats for the festival.
Once you are at the site, head on over to the ‘TRENDSETTING’ section of the site. There you will find trainers and jockeys, and a table of the best and worst trainers and jockeys in the last 10 years of the festival.
This part of the site shows the most profitable trainers and jockeys and those with the most winners. These are not one and the same!
Willie Mullins sent out 8 winners last year (and if you want to know his best runners, then take a look at February’s What Really Wins Money Cheltenham Special – now with FREE Guinness glass stain on cover for each reader). But if you had backed all of Mullins’ horses in the last 5 years, you’d have made a 26 point loss! Yikes.
What this trainer section of the trend-spotters tells us is that Willie Mullins’ 5 to 6 year olds and runners over 2 miles ½ furlong to 2 miles 4 ½ furlongs made a huge profit. The profits here to 1 point stakes are 93 points for both age and distance stats! Something to chew on eh?
Work your way through the trainers and note which horses in terms of age, hurdlers or chasers, race distance and so forth, tend to make us the punters the most money when being backed.
Paul Nicholls, at the festival, has a terrible record with his chasers (11 winners in 174 runnings). The most profitable stat for Nicholls at the festival? A 52-point profit backing handicapped horses in the weights off 10 stone 11 lbs to 11 stone.
Watch out for Nicky Henderson horses who have run within the last 45 days: they show a 58-point profit.
Jonjo O’Neill tends to specialise in runners over distances of 3 miles or further: he has won punters a solid 68 points profit over the last 10 festivals.
David Pipe has been the punters’ friend when sending out horses rated 132 to 138 with a 48-point profit over the last 10 festivals.
Do make sure you note the trainers without a single winner at the festival! There’s a long list!
Jockeys
It is not Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty who have been the punters’ pal over Cheltenham Festival’s past. It is the unassuming Davy Russell who has made punters a 94-point profit over the last 10 years. I would avoid any Davy Russell ridden horses in National Hunt Flat races (INH Flat races). He is yet to win!
If you follow Davy Russell over the chases, he has made a 94-point profit just in that sphere. When he rides horses 20/1 or lower, his record is 14 winners in 78 runnings, or a 72-point profit. He is the only jockey to record a level-stakes profit in each of the last 5 years.
Other top stats?
Paul Carberry has made punters an 83-point profit in races of 17 to 23 runners in the last 10 years. Focus on Barry Geraghty horses which he rode last time out: 49 points profit for punters over the last 10 years (at www.racingpost.com, click on the day’s cards and then the horse and this will bring up the past form).
When Ruby Walsh rides for Willie Mullins in race distances of 2 miles ½ furlong to 2 miles 4½ furlongs, he made punters a 50-point profit over the last 10 years.
Don’t forget the poor souls with no wins at the festival. Don’t take a bow, these people:
- David Casey
- Paul Moloney
- Leighton Aspell
- Christian Williams
- Niall Madden
This kind of statistical look at horse racing can pay off long-term. What do I take out of all of this? Well, the punters’ pal must be Davy Russell, so do watch out for his rides this Cheltenham Festival.
League-Cup-tastic!
Sunday sees the culmination of the competition in which it is always fun to see how quickly Premiership teams try to get themselves knocked out as early as possible. Arsenal and Man Utd tend to field teams made up of the players’ mums, tea ladies and the coach driver in order to be rid of this competition from their fixture lists.
The only exceptions to the general Premiership disdain have come from the Finalists Liverpool and Manchester City (two finals in 3 years now).
If you were interested in researching this match, I would recommend www.soccerway.com for cup matches of all descriptions. Why? Well you can view form overall and you can also view form singularly in that specific competition.
Liverpool, for instance, have only one win in seven matches overall.
Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 10 League Cup matches though. Liverpool have recorded three 1-0 wins in their last four League Cup matches.
As for Man City? Well they lost three consecutive matches v Leicester, Tottenham and Chelsea and ended that with a nice win v Dinamo Kiev.
In the 2015 League Cup campaign, Man City scored and conceded in all matches played. They beat Sunderland, Crystal Palace, Hull City, and Everton second leg after a first leg semi-final defeat.
In head-to-heads, both teams have scored in the last nine meetings. Is this a potential angle into Sunday’s final? Liverpool won the most recent head-to-heads.
Liverpool’s 1-0s contrasted with City’s Both Teams to Score Over 2.5 Goals exploits in the League Cup.
Which way will you fall?
I would hope for a Both Teams to Score match and Over 2.5 Goals.
I’ll be continuing my look at Cheltenham next weekend, so see you then. Have a great weekend.
The only exceptions to the general Premiership disdain have come from the Finalists Liverpool and Manchester City (two finals in 3 years now).
If you were interested in researching this match, I would recommend www.soccerway.com for cup matches of all descriptions. Why? Well you can view form overall and you can also view form singularly in that specific competition.
Liverpool, for instance, have only one win in seven matches overall.
Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 10 League Cup matches though. Liverpool have recorded three 1-0 wins in their last four League Cup matches.
As for Man City? Well they lost three consecutive matches v Leicester, Tottenham and Chelsea and ended that with a nice win v Dinamo Kiev.
In the 2015 League Cup campaign, Man City scored and conceded in all matches played. They beat Sunderland, Crystal Palace, Hull City, and Everton second leg after a first leg semi-final defeat.
In head-to-heads, both teams have scored in the last nine meetings. Is this a potential angle into Sunday’s final? Liverpool won the most recent head-to-heads.
Liverpool’s 1-0s contrasted with City’s Both Teams to Score Over 2.5 Goals exploits in the League Cup.
Which way will you fall?
I would hope for a Both Teams to Score match and Over 2.5 Goals.
I’ll be continuing my look at Cheltenham next weekend, so see you then. Have a great weekend.