Way back, before the Cheltenham Festival, I recommended February’s Cheltenham Festival edition of What Really Wins Money.
The boy done tremendous… He gave 110%… He covered every blade of grass.’ Yes, Andrew David – our resident Cheltenham Festival expert – delivered again.

He produced a 25.91 point profit for the festival. Day 1 saw a 6 point gain. Day 2 saw a 9.9 point gain. Day 3 saw a 9.56 point gain. Day 4 saw a 0.45 point gain.

The highlights this year? Andrew tipped up Sprinter Sacre when everyone else was eyeing up Un de Sceaux.

Vautour and On the Fringe were two others worth a mention, with one reader getting 14/1 about Vautour.

A 60 point profit from 2 consecutive Cheltenham Festivals is excellent stuff indeed! Well done, Andrew!

An oldie but a goodie!

Those of you football-minded can’t help but notice we are in the midst of an International Break at the moment.

For me, it’s an excellent opportunity to wheel out ‘Old Faithful’. I will re-print an article from the files at What Really Wins Money pertinent to these international football matches. I hope you find it useful. Please note that the article is produced verbatim, so the examples come from the time period at which the article was written.

During this International Break, my main football strategy is the Correct Score strategy. It’s simple really. Go to the football coupon at Betfair and take note of really short-priced selections.

Here’s an example of the real ‘shorties’ (as I call them)…

1.30 p.m. – Serbia U19 v San Marino U19 – 1.02 to Serbia U19?
2.00 p.m. – Liechtenstein U19 v France U19 – 1.01 to France U21

?7.45 p.m. – Belgium v Andorra – 1.02 – 1.02 Belgium

Do not dismiss these short-priced teams who are unbackable in the Match Odds market.

  • Think goals.
  • Think correct scores.
  • Think wins-to-nil.

Look at recent matches: Germany U19 were 1.03-shots against Kazakhstan U19 and won 6-0. Russia U19 were 1.04-shots against Faroe Islands U19 and won 7-0. My prediction? 6-0 and 8-0: yes, that’s right – ye olde betting gods are having a good chortle at that prediction!

England were 1.01 shots against San Marino. The final score? 5-0. My research yesterday? ‘Look towards 6-0 or 7-0 scorelines. England tend to level out at 5-0 and 6-0 at home to minnows.

You see the pattern? Turn these shorties into a good-priced bet by looking at a Goals bet or a Correct Score to Nil bet.

You could include these matches in Goals accumulators or Correct Score permutations. Here’s an article on Correct Score permutations – it is perfectly suited to the International Break and can produce a massive return…


How to exploit these Correct Scores for potentially huge returns

Try out the following permutations once you have determined a likely correct score based upon these selection processes (and the assumption that these short-priced international teams will win at around a 4-0 starting point).

Permutation 1: Ukraine is playing Andorra at home. Ukraine is, quite rightly, very short-odds favourites, being quoted at odds of 1/40. This signifies goals. This will be Match One. On the same day, Russia is playing Liechtenstein. The Russians are quoted as 1/100 shots. Again, this signifies goals. This will be Match Two.

  • Match One: 2-0 3-0 4-0 4-1 5-0
  • Match Two: 2-0 3-0 3-1 4-0 5-0

We write down a variation of scores which surround 4-0, to hopefully account for any difficulties in scoring. I always include one score where the minnows score a goal – this, I’m afraid, is where luck comes in: 3-1 or 4-1 would be my options.

On the betting slip, we write ‘Perm five results for each match for a correct score double = 25 bets’.

If the result of both matches is contained on your betting slip, you have a winning double, and as Correct Scores tend to pay out at decent odds, we have a chance of a nice-paying double to compensate for the biggish cost of the bet.

Permutation 2: For this Correct Score permutation, we will focus predominantly on those teams and those leagues which are generally renowned for tight games and tight results.

My first step here is to visit www.soccerstats.com, that little goldmine of information, and look at each team’s performance in a given league against the dominant teams in that league; or a team who are dominant at home.

For instance, if looking at the Premiership, I would select a team like Burnley, and looking at the Challenge Table, I determine that they are generally competitive at home, with scorelines of 1-0, 3-1, 1-0, 1-3, 2-1 & 2-0.

Alternatively, I would also look at teams such as Stoke, who, when playing the top-four teams at Stoke’s home ground in the Premiership (Man Utd, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea), do eventually lose, but keep the matches tight. Losses such as 2-1 and 2-0 when Chelsea and Man Utd visited offer us an insight into the expected scorelines when Arsenal and Liverpool visit.

Another method of looking for a shortlist of matches is to look in those leagues which, whilst having dominant teams, tend to generate tight scorelines. As well as using the Challenge Table, we can also use the Scores (at Home) and Scores (Away) Tables to determine the most popular scorelines for a specific team.

One league which immediately springs to mind is the Greek Premier League. We have two dominant teams in Panathinaikos and Olympiakos. If we look at Panathinaikos in particular, and the Scores (at Home) and Scores (Away) Tables at Soccer Stats, 2-1 has appeared three times at home, 1-0 has appeared once at home, 1-0 has appeared twice away from home.

I hope you have subliminally noticed the scorelines mentioned above: 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0. These will form the basis of our second permutation.

  • Match One: 1-0 2-0 2-1
  • Match Two: 1-0 2-0 2-1
  • Match Three: 1-0 2-0 2-1

Write the above on your betting slip or in your long-list fixed-odds coupon with the instructions to the bookmaker to ‘Perm 3 scorelines for each match for a winning treble = 27 bets’.

Put them to use this weekend. I am afraid that my research is strictly for members of www.drt.club. I’ll be doing a few of these Correct Score permutations this week.

It only remains for me to say have a great Easter. Don’t eat too many Easter eggs or you’ll end up looking like Newcastle’s new striker Jimmy Five-Bellies.


Have a great weekend!