Not content with scaring the neighbour’s dog with all my effing and blinding after Saint Are was a tantalising second in the Grand National, the poor pooch also heard more industrial language after the running of the Scottish Grand National saw a selection Goonyella finish ¾ length second. It could have been a mighty payout for these two but second is, well, second.
Still, a new approach to the Grand Nationals this year so nearly paid off.
I was compensated somewhat by a 19.5 and 9.86 priced winner this Monday, followed by a 12.5 odds winner on Tuesday, for my each way selections at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, part of a group of tips I put up daily, based on my Home-Grown Betting System Updates which appear in the monthly What Really Wins Money newsletter.
And over at Delay React Trade (www.drt.club), we got another 1.05 lay in the bag to add to my growing collection for the live chats for members. Laying at 1.05 is the same as backing at 20/1, so it’s very welcome.
The live chats this weekend just gone were excellent and if you like your football betting and want me to do all of the leg-work for you on a busy Saturday and Sunday – as far as finding the best value backs and lays and the best in-play bets for a whole variety of matches – then consider www.drt.club.
Heffernan-tastic!
I would recommend you watching out for the rides of Seamie Heffernan (he’s a jockey to the uninitiated) in Ireland this Flat season, as I highlighted last week in the eletter. If you click on his name at www.racingpost.com, focus on Irish Flat, last five seasons and trainer, just have a quick look at his record riding for certain trainers when he has a ride.
You’ll see a jockey pretty much in level stakes profit over the past five seasons when he rides for most trainers.
On 20 April, he rode for John Joseph Murphy at Cork and won on a horse called Castle Lyons at a Betfair SP of, wait for it, 109.09 for the win and 33.55 for the place (the bookmakers paid only 40/1!!).
Heffernan seems to be the go-to guy doesn’t he? All of this was uncovered usually the excellent stats facilities at www.racingpost.com.
Two-year-old maidens
The Turf Flat season is now underway in the UK and there are races unique to the Turf season which are a minefield for punters. Today we’ll be looking at two-year-old maidens.
Take a look at this race:
Here we have a race for the foolhardy backer. (Or the backer in the know!)
Why? We have:
- Unraced two-year-old horses. How on earth do we know how they will take to racing for the first time?
- We have a race being run over five furlongs. This is the shortest distance in Flat racing. An ideal distance for laying.
- We have a race run at an ‘undulating’ track, Brighton – a track unraced two-year-olds are likely to find very difficult.
By the way, I would recommend the following website if you want a quick précis on the Flat race tracks: www.drawbias.com is predominantly a website dedicated to the unique phenomenon of draw bias on Flat tracks (quite simply because stalls are used in Flat racing and not over the Jumps).
At www.drawbias.com you can get a description of each race track. Their description for Brighton gives excellent clues. They mention the course’s eccentricities and that it is a course for horses who have coped with the track previously – i.e. a fecking nightmare for newbies and two-year-old newbies over a sprint distance!
How should you approach this race? Well, those of you with a modicum of common sense will say to me ‘Run away, run away’. And you’d be right.
These races should be approached with an eye on perhaps laying the shortest-priced horse in the race.
Or you could take a look at the stats.
These stats are available for free at www.racingpost.com by clicking under the race card at the ‘stats’ link.
If viewing these stats below, what conclusions might you come to?
I would note that David Evans as a trainer is in electric form this Flat season, and overall has a profit any punter would be delighted with to level stakes.
He rides Silver Springs. A lively contender? (Update – a non-runner as it turned out!)
Or you could take your cues from the betting market. Here are two tricks I use in deciding whether to back in races such as this where there is no form…
‘All red’ – Here’s what I mean by an ‘all red’ signal: click on ‘cards’ at www.racingpost.com where you see a list of today’s races and times. Click on the time of the race you are interested in.
Now click on ‘latest shows’ and just before the race is due, you’ll see something like this:
I like to look for horses who are ‘all red’ across all of the bookmakers featured at www.racingpost.com.
Blue means the horses’ prices are lengthening. Red means the horses’ prices are shortening.
This ‘all red’ signal can confirm confidence for you if you run an existing system (for example, I have found it complements my 16/1 system well), and it is particularly effective when you see a horse ‘leapfrog’ others into favouritism.
Here’s what I mean: look at Monsieur Chevalier in the Betting Forecast. He is second-favourite at 11/4 and has leapfrogged into bookmaker favouritism.
The result?
As it happened, all three ‘all red’ horses finished first, second and third.
So, when I am looking at two-year-old maiden races on the Flat, particularly featuring races where all of the contenders are un-raced and, consequently, have no form figures. It is a guessing game isn’t it?
- Go with the hot stats trainer or jockey (David Evans or Shane Foley in this featured race above).
- Lay the favourite, because it is a guessing game!
- Take your cues from the market using my ‘all red’ signals.
I did mention www.drawbias.com above and the draw bias is something I’ll be looking at in a future eletter, because it can really enable you to focus on certain draw numbers above others, especially at famous courses such as Beverley and Chester.
More Flat ideas?
I am currently recording the performance of horses who are the Racing Post Betting Forecast favourite in the race(s) of the day which have the biggest field.
The early signs are extremely encouraging as a laying strategy. It is a pity I cannot back track in order to get a more complete picture, as the Racing Post Betting Forecast is unavailable to me for days gone by.
I do also want to look into ‘bet and go’ football strategies for you as well. My main focus has always been on football trading, as I run www.drt.club, but I am aware ‘bet and go’ strategies, if they can profit, will be very welcome.
Remember to think niche with football:
- Laying the 0-0 halftime score.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals.
These are markets which immediately spring to mind. More will follow, I am sure, once I get my thinking hat on.
I’m off now to buy my Hollyoaks ladies 2015 calendar in time for Chester’s May meeting.
Have a great weekend.