‘Fair dinkum, possum, you find me here in Northern Australia cobber, in the support team for me sis who’s running an Ironman event this Sunday, in aid of cancer research.’ (My close friend died of cancer on 16 May aged only 35.)
Yes, folks, that’s a 4+km swim, 180 km bike ride and a full marathon. I must ask my dad if she was dropped on her head as a baby! Stone the crows!
‘I expect she’ll have a bonza time and run like a possum up a gum tree. She’ll be as dry as a drover’s dog after completing. I’ve got a few tinnies and a longneck for her, no wuckin furries.’
After dazzling you with my Australian lingo, it’s back to the business in hand.
‘Bonza ripper tipper mate!‘
I hope you joined me in laying Rory McIlroy at 2.46 last week. He went on to collapse in the second round and produced an excellent short-priced lay.
That’s twice now we’ve layed a player who has had an outstanding first round, leading by some margin, only for the rest of the field to catch up quickly over the next three rounds.
Perhaps this is another one of those betting niches I mentioned last week as being the foundation to your betting success?
Look for players who have scored an eye-catching first round score in any PGA/European tour golf event, and lay them in the Winner market. We’re talking about what looks like an unassailable lead.
The horse tips last week were close to the mark. In the 205 Haydock I mentioned 8 or 9/1-winners, and lo and behold, the winner was a 10/1 horse, with a short-head second at 9/1. I chucked a wobbly mate, fair dinkum.
The 220 York fell to the favourite and I did mention looking at the head of the market for your horse. In the 240 Haydock, I advised a selection between 4/1 and 10/1 each way. Well, Penitent won at 33/1 but there was a second and 6/1 and a third at 4/1.
In the 350 Haydock I advised looking for a horse near the head of the market at 4/1 or 5/1. Yes, you guessed – the winner was a 3/1 horse!
This analysis was done via past winners stats at www.racingpost.com – a historical ‘angle’ into the racing. It was quite accurate last week. Will it be this week with some eye-catching racing at Epsom and elsewhere this weekend?
Here’s my past winners look at this weekend and all of the action revolves around Epsom, where I will ‘avago at getting us cashed up, right deadly’.
Saturday 7 June 2014
135 Epsom This is an 11-runner Class 2 race, and I suppose as befits a competitive meeting such as that found on derby day, there have only been two winning favourites here in the last ten years, and no winning favourite in the last five.
Recent winners have been at odds of 16/1, 17/2, 10/1, 5/1 and 25/1, so each way value alternatives seem to be the call from history.
It is interesting to note that all ten winners have had a different jockey on board, so can we ignore the mounts of previous winners Keiren Fallon (Stars Over the Sea), Tom Queally (Black Shadow)?
Look therefore to avoid the favourite here and go each way on a nice-priced horse at between 5/1 and 16/1. Three of the recent winners were between 5/1 and 10/1. Perhaps stay there each way?
Note that Mark Johnston has three runners in this race. Is he targeting this one? If so, ignore, as I say, the Fallon mount Stars Over the Sea.
205 Epsom The Woodcote stakes and it’s a nine-runner race. Yes, that’s right, each way is the play here. Less that, clear past patterns in this two-year-old race. A 3/1 horse has won two of the last three runnings, with a 12/1 horse sandwiched in between.
That 12/1 horse, along with a 14/1 horse, was the biggest-priced past winners stat by some distance (third-biggest was 7/1), so we are statistically more likely to see horses under 7/1 win this race.
There have been two consecutive favourites in 2005 and 2006, and a winning favourite last year. Will we see another this year?
240 Epsom The Coronation Cup is an eight-runner race and another perfect each way race. It’s a Group 1 race and that should suggest no donkeys here.
A certain Aiden O’Brien has won this race in 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. The last four favourites have won. There is no Aiden O’Brien runner this year which throws a spanner in the works.
I think that might make this a race to avoid the favourite, therefore (the last four winning favourites were O’Brien horses), so look for horses below 8/1 (the biggest-priced winner of the last 10 years) and back each way.
315 Epsom A 20-runner 5-furlong sprint is perhaps not an ideal betting medium. The first favourite to win in the last 10 years won last year. Two consecutive 4-year-olds have won, two of only three 4-year-olds to win in the last 10 years. Time for a change? Horses 3 and 14 are 4-year-olds. Limited patterns here.
400 Epsom – the derby This is a 16-runner Group 1 race won by Aiden O’Brien in the last two years. Favourites have a poor recent record, with winners in 2007 and 2012 in recent years.
The market, though, is very accurate here and there has never been a winner recently over 7/1. Do not look, therefore, for a shock if you are basing your decisions on past history.
Aiden O’Brien runs horses numbers 2, 5, 7 and 9. Horse number 2 is called ‘Australia’. I must therefore put a couple of quid on that one, for coincidence sake. Bit of a drongo move. Some say I won’t have a buckley’s picking horses like this!
Will O’Brien get the hat-trick of wins? If you think so, then look to an O’Brien selection below odds of 7/1.
450 Epsom This 16-runner race has seen only one winner in 10 years, and no winner higher than 12/1. As a 16-runner handicap, there should be four places available for each-way betting, a one in four chance of placing, increased of course if that 12/1 pattern re-emerges.
Four-year-olds have won six of the last eight runnings. The youngsters will out?
Also note the weights, as the last three winners have been at 9-5, 9-7 and 9-7, where before the winners were at 8-8 and below 9 stone.
Top weight is again 9-7 for this race. Do the top weighted horses tend to dominate?
I hope you find these past winners stats for derby day useful. They offer a good angle in and we are rarely far from the mark. Remember the each-way angle this derby day too. There are races perfectly suited to each-way betting.
The only other sport which stands out is the French Open, where I might look at laying 3-0 set betting for both players and hope that each player (Nadal v Murray and Djokovic v Gulbis) wins a set at least.
This would have to be approached with trading in mind.
Sharapova is playing Simona Halep, who I’ve been following for a while. If Sharapova is at odds on, then I would lay her, again with trading in mind. She has dropped sets on the road to the final and in Halep she meets a lady on top of her game.
World Cup-tastic!
We’re not learning much from International friendlies prior to the World Cup. Can we really take the Italy 1 Luxembourg 1 result at face value? If so, then avoid Italy for the trophy.
Please make sure you use the analysis at www.tipsterwarehouse.co.uk, which is completely free. Other groups have been added too this week.
The Racing Post offer their World Cup special via their newspaper. At £2.99, it is a reasonable cost for a comprehensive analysis of the tournament.
The World Cup edition appears in today’s Racing Post newspaper which can be bought at newsagents or online – it’ll be well worth a read. If you are miserly like me, then the Tipster Warehouse is ‘perfick’ for the job.
Check out www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk if you are a What Really Wins Money newsletter reader.
I’ve been particularly pleased with the ‘creating value from short prices’ selections, free to readers at the website. To re-cap, we back one selection at odds of 1.2, one at 1.25 and one at 1.33 for an evens treble return.
Results from my shortlists have been excellent (I do this and more for free for my WRWM readers).
So do check it out. Also, I note the All Weather meetings creeping back in and I have a wonderful array of strong back and lay systems specific to the All Weather, which will be exclusively featured at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. They have been profiting long-term and it is reasonable to assume future success.
The World Cup kicks off on 12 June, just before the next newsletter, so do pop along to www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk where I’ll be posting my tuppence-worth on each match, open to all!
‘Good on yer!’ I hear you cry.
I’m off now to ‘fossick some sangers, slip into me budgie-smugglers and head down the pool. Bonza!’
Have a great weekend.