Strawberries-and-cream-flavoured crisps and a pint of Pimms please, mate.
That will be the call from bars up and down the country as Wimbledon approaches. I would urge you to review the recent eletter discussions on tennis trading, and those of you who are members of What Really Wins Money will be getting some trading advice for free at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk for the early rounds of the tournament. It went rather well in the French Open.
I hope you profited in some capacity from the Champions League research last week. I think I emphasised clearly enough that Barcelona were expected to score 2/3 goals – if they can score them against Paris St Germain and Bayern Munich, I argued, they could score them against Juventus. And so they did…
The www.bet365.com offer was money in the bank for those of you who took action. There was another Champions League offer specific to Boyles Sports, and I made a risk-free £65 watching the Champions League. Nice work if you can get it!
So do look at the promotions pages of online bookmakers. Make it a habit, particularly with big tournaments. I will be doing this for the Copa America, Wimbledon and Royal Ascot.
The swear jar overfloweth with the Epsom tips. I got the wrong fecking jockey for the first race. I had chosen Seamie Heffernan’s two mounts at Epsom last week. Who won the Friday race, where I selected Aidan O’Brien’s Diamondsandrubies, ridden by Seamie (a credible fourth at 14/1 and oh-so-near a third-place payout!)?
Colm O’Donoghue won on another Aidan O’Brien mount Qualify at a whopping 50/1. Cue many swear words!
The derby was won by Golden Horn, with all Aidan O’Brien horses finishing in the top-seven. I would suggest keeping Seamie Heffernan on your side in England, though. Long-term, he has profited well.
This week the Copa America kicks off in Chile, with the hosts having already played Ecuador as you read this.
Here’s something you might want to try out…
In tournaments such as the Copa America, and indeed the Under 20s World Cup in New Zealand, note any matches where the favourite is priced at 1.17 or lower in decimal odds. You’ll be seeing this a lot in these two tournaments, and why not throw the Women’s World Cup in, where Fernando Torres has been chosen for the Spanish ladies team to lead the line.
Put all of the sub 1.17 matches you can find into an Over 3.5 Goals accumulator. You might be pleasantly surprised. Time and again, 1.17 shots and lower translate roughly into 3 / 4 goals, a possible win to nil and a goal at least before halftime.
Over 3.5 Goals is a stretch I admit, as it requires the strong favourite to score the four goals all on their own. (Safer is an Over 2.5 Goals accumulator.)
Do keep track of these matches, though, and see these patterns. I would also recommend Correct Score betting on these matches. Why? If we expect a win-to-nil, then our range of focus is instantly limited, isn’t it, to 1-0, 2-0… all the way up to 10-0.
Here’s a blast from the past: I have copied and pasted these two Correct Score permutations for you. I hope you get the gist here. The examples I use include old matches where one team was overwhelming favourite
Permutation 1: Ukraine is playing Andorra at home. Ukraine is, quite rightly, very short odds favourites, being quoted at odds of 1/40. This signifies goals. This will be Match One. On the same day, Russia is playing Liechtenstein. The Russians are quoted as 1/100 shots. Again, this signifies goals. This will be Match Two.
MATCH One 2-0 3-0 4-0 5-0 6-0
MATCH Two 2-0 3-0 4-0 5-0 6-0
We write down a variation of scores, which are wins-to-nil.
On the betting slip, we write ‘perm five results for each match for a correct score double = 25 bets’.
If the result of both matches is contained on your betting slip, you have a winning double, and as Correct Scores tend to pay out at decent odds, we have a chance of a nice paying double to compensate for the biggish cost of the bet.
Permutation 2: This permutation is used for three matches and three Correct Scores only: 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 are my usual choices.
MATCH ONE 2-0 3-0 4-0
MATCH TWO 2-0 3-0 4-0
MATCH THREE 2-0 3-0 4-0
Write the above on your betting slip or in your long-list fixed-odds coupon with the instructions to the bookmaker to ‘Perm three scorelines for each match for a winning treble = 27 bets’.
These permutations are great, but I am afraid you may have to be a bit ‘old skool’ here and visit a bookies and write these down in betting slips. These perms I keep by my side whenever there is some international football on, and the prospect of minnows v the mighty!
Each-way-tastic!
I just thought I’d remind subscribers of What Really Wins Money that I do provide some tips at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. The each way selections this week would have made a lot of subscribers more than happy.
Since 3 June, the winners have kept flowing: 5.04, 2.18 and 5 on that day; 4 June saw winners at 3 and 12.11 decimal odds (for fractional odds, take away 1 – i.e. 2/1 and 11/1); 5 June saw winners at 11.13, and 2.2; 7 June saw one race, one winner at 8.76; 8 June (pauses for breath!) saw winners at 17.33, 20.81, and 5.01; 9 June saw two winners at 8.69, and 7.27; and 11 June saw winners at 6.6 and 7.4.
When I hit a purple patch, I do hope there are those who follow and back to Betfair SP.
Here’s how my make my each-way selections. I choose 8/9 runner races. The shortest field which pays out on three places.
I then choose a betting forecast like this…
820 Haydock Betting Forecast: 13/8 George William, 11/4 Valko, 4/1 Hayadh, 8/1 Hibou, 10/1 Goodknight Percy, 10/1 Space Mountain, 66/1 Carlovian, 66/1 The Resdev Way.
A short-priced favourite and 2/3 horses priced as outsiders. We have two 66/1 horses, who I hope play no part. This leaves us with six horses vying for three places. There’s nothing like putting the probabilities of picking a horse to finish in the top three in your favour!
And last but not least, I make two selections. I make an ‘obvious’ selection. Hayadh would be my obvious selection. He won at 6.6. And I make a speculative selection – this is horse racing after all! Goodknight Percy was my speculative selection and he finished just out of the places in fourth.
Give it a go for yourself. When the selections click, as you see above, the money flows!
This is simply trying to put the odds in your favour. There’s no form analysis, no checking jockey or trainer stats. None of that gubbins; just select the correct race type and you could be profiting well.
I’m off now to see if the Women’s World Cup Final will be between Germany and USA. I would not put you off backing these two if the odds are good enough.
Have a great weekend.