I hope you tried out the tennis research strategy from last week’s eletter. If you did, you would have spotted these two patterns.
1) Serena Williams kept losing the first set, then winning the next two sets. So what do you do when Serena does the same against Timea Bacsinszky? Yes, that’s right: you either back Serena at far greater odds than the 1.18 offered pre-match; or you lay Timea. Timea’s odds reached a low of 1.27 which is about a 4/1 return. Of course, Serena went on to win the match 2-1.
2) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Somebody has put a rocket up this French fellow’s derriere! In this French Open, Tsonga raced away with the first two sets against top-five players Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori, only to lose the third set. So, folks, what will you be doing today should Jo-Wilfried win the first two sets against ninth in the world Stan Wawrinka? If you replied ‘Lay Tsonga 3-0 set betting or in the Match Odds market’; or ‘Back Stan Wawrinka at enhanced odds’ then go to the top of the class.
I must admit I have enjoyed the French Open this week and some of the trading angles have been excellent.
Laying Sloane Stephens against Serena Williams at odds of 1.28 when Sloane was a set up was a highlight. Heck, laying Serena Williams at odds of 1.04 and backing at 1.4 earlier in the French Open was wonderful.
Poor old Andy Murray must be near to turning to the Scotch whisky as he finds out that he must play old Mr Rubber Man Novak Djokovic (or Novak D’oh Jokovic as he is known to the Scot).
Novak pummelled clay king Rafa Nadal 3-0 and is likely to show no mercy to a more resilient Murray, who has taken at least a set from Novak when they have met this year, albeit in two finals.
I would lay Novak Djokovic 3-0 set betting if he goes two sets to nil up. Andy Murray, if taking a set, is likely to need a tie-breaker in order to do so.
Tennis trading can be as complex or as easy as you want it to be. More advanced traders look to trade service points. Yet others seek to use the Betfair profit/loss graphs and trade support and resistance lines. I will be looking at all aspects of tennis trading over the weeks.
My version of trading is simple: it is this…
Trading is ‘the anticipation of a future price movement’. Think on that phrase and you’ll see that my definition of trading is spot on.
And there’s more… (As my close show biz pal Jimmy Cricket often says to me.)
The Champions League Final is with us on Saturday and it sees Juventus take on a Barcelona side, who are warm order at decimal odds of 1.63 to prevail (odds at time of writing). I’ll share with you some of my findings below:
- The Champions League Final and the market is emphatic here.
- Juventus are unbeaten in nine consecutive Champions League (CL) matches. Real Madrid lately could only score via a penalty. Is this a warning to Barcelona regarding the Old Lady’s defensive prowess?
- Olympiakos were the only team this campaign to score two goals v Juventus.
- Barcelona lost 3-2 to Bayern Munich recently but that was an engineered loss. 3-0 Barcelona in the first leg.
- Barcelona have scored 2/3 goals vs mighty teams such as Paris St Germain and Bayern Munich.
These one-off matches, I’m afraid, are tough to read, as it is effectively an ‘all or nothing’. Long gone are the tactical two-legged matches of the semi-finals.
I am taken by Barcelona’s consistent scoring of at least two goals. They certainly have the personnel to score, and remember, against Bayern Munich they scored three goals after the 80th minute.
It’s going to be a case of counter-attack versus attack tomorrow.
Don’t forget the bonuses…
You’ll recall in my eletter corresponding with the Champions League semi-finals that I recounted how Bet365 were offering a promotion which would make you risk-free money.
Well, www.bet365.com are offering the same in-play offer again tomorrow, so take action, and make yourself some £40 or so risk-free while watching the final. If you are a What Really Wins Money member, then one of the reports I provide for free is called ‘The Free Bet Report’.
One caveat with tomorrow’s offer: make sure you place the in-play qualifying bet during the half-time break.
The match is still in-play, as are the markets, but there will be no goals or red cards to scupper your bet. If you want clarification then read The Free Bet Report or email me tomorrow.
There are likely to be other risk-free incentives from the bookies because the Champions League is such a high-profile event, so please do as I advised in a previous eletter and check out the promotions section of bookmakers’ websites.
And there’s more… (Yes, me and Jimmy Cricket are that close!)
This weekend also sees the Epsom Derby meeting.
I would recommend following Seamie Heffernan-ridden horses this weekend. There are only two. In the 430pm today, at Epsom, Diamondsandrubies is a good each way price.
At 430pm tomorrow, in the derby, Hans Holbein is the Heffernan-ridden horse. I would also back it each way.
Why? Heffernan has a 13-point profit from rides at Epsom in the last five years. He has made a 52.67-point profit in the last five seasons when riding in the UK for Aidan O’Brien. He has made a whopping 61 points profit in the last four years with his rides in the UK.
Seamie, I argued in a recent edition of What Really Wins Money, seems to be the go-to guy for a number of prominent Irish trainers.
Let’s take a look at the big races today and tomorrow based on the ‘Past Winners’ trends…
TODAY EPSOM
2pm – A Group 3 race and ten runners so a reasonable each-way staking race. This is a race where a single horse can run up a winning sequence. Three horses have won this race consecutively, most recently Thistle Bird. This leaves the race wide open today as he does not run.
Look for horses below 7/1. Eight of the ten winners have been below 4/1. That should limit your search today. A 7/2 horse each way would be my selection. I have no prices yet though.
310pm – The Diomed stakes is a seven-runner race, so only two places if playing each way. Only one favourite has won this race in ten years and that was a joint-favourite. I would back Tullius and Complicit each way as lively alternatives to the market leaders.
430pm – The Oaks sees 11 horses for this Group 1 race. Three consecutive 20/1 winners recently ended with a 5/1 winner last time out. I would be happy with Diamondsandrubies each way as I said earlier. The horse is not a favourite, and not priced as an outsider.
515pm – The Surrey Stakes is the perfect each way race. Nine runners means any contender only has six horses to beat to place.
Since 2008, the market has been very accurate here with five winners being favourites. If a horse is 2/1 or under, it seems it has a chance of the win. I would look at an 11/4 priced horse each way today. The market tends to get this race correct.
SATURDAY EPSOM
235pm – The Woodcote Stakes is a ten-runner Class 1 listed race. The Hannons have won the last two runnings, Senior and Junior. Junior runs Nelspruit if you think Hannon has a chance at a hat-trick.
Three of the last four winners have been 3/1 or lower. I would chance a 3/1 shot each way, as there are ten runners. There was a 12/1 winner in 2012 but that is the exception and not the norm.
310pm – The Group 1 Coronation Cup: another cracker! Six runners could suggest tactical riding? This race should be re-named the ‘give the fecking cup to Aidan O’Brien’ race: he has won it seven times in the last ten years. He does not have a ride today, which skews the past winners stats somewhat!
Five consecutive favourites have won this race so it may not be a race for a high-priced speculation.
430pm – The Epsom Derby – As I said, I am with Seamie Heffernan when he gets the ferry across to England (although he may get the ferry back afterwards for a crackerjack Ireland v England, ahem, friendly.)
Aidan O’Brien has won the Epsom Derby in the last three years, with Joseph O’Brien winning twice on a favourite. Seamie Heffernan is not a winner. Giovanni Cannaleto (7/1) is ridden by Ryan Moore, Hans Holbein (12/1) by Seamie, and Kilimanjaro (16/1) by Joseph O’Brien.
The biggest-priced winner was 7/1, so that should limit the field to four runners? Giovanni Cannaleto must be the obvious choice price-wise and with Ryan Moore now a Ballydoyle rider, we cannot simply back the Joseph O’Brien horse anymore.
Ignoring ultra-short-priced Golden Horn, I will go mob-handed each way on Giovanni Cannaleto and Hans Holbein.
Good luck whichever way you bet.
I’m off now to pounce on some Champions League bonuses. Soon I will be able to afford willies as nice as Jimmy Cricket’s!
Have a great weekend.