Doncaster’s meeting tomorrow heralds the official start of the Flat season in the UK. I do like the Flat season for one reason: no horse is going to get pulled up. Three of my each way selections yesterday for members of What Really Wins Money (at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk) were pulled up.
Give me a chance eh?
As it’s such a good card at Doncaster tomorrow, I’ll take a look at the ‘past winners’ trends for you in the major races to see if anything catches the eye.
200 Doncaster – This is a Class 1 listed race and I’m afraid has only two years of stats, where the favourite has not won. Little to go on. If you want a cheeky lay of Tullius, the strong favourite, then liabilities will be low.
235 Doncaster – This is another Class 1 listed race. With only two winning favourites in ten races, this is a race for a nice speculative each way bet. Four of the last five winners have been at odds of 17/2, 22/1, 12/1 and 12/1. It seems, historically, that the winners come between the odds of 13/2 and 16/1.
Four-year-olds rarely win this race, so horses numbered 1, 2, 3 and 9 in the race card at www.racingpost.com might be discounted. Ten consecutive different trainers suggests we ignore Henry Candy’s Dinkum Diamond if we expect an 11th consecutive different trainer to win this race.
I’m going to stick with the Betting Forecast 12/1 hopes Lucky Beggar and Heaven’s Guest, each way, and hope this recent 12/1 trend continues (although I acknowledge that the Betting Forecast 12/1 is not necessarily the odds we’ll see in the live market).
310 Doncaster – This is a Class 2 handicap and all I can say here is, with the 22 runners, good luck! There have been two winning favourites: the last (two years ago) was a joint-favourite. The last seven winners have all been over 9 stone 3 lbs, so that can shorten the list, by ignoring horses numbered 16–22 inclusive on the Racing Post race card.
I’d be looking at one horse at 12/1, one at 16/1 and one at 20/1 each way here. Rarely do horses over 20/1 win this race. The field is big enough to allow more than one selection. So select these three prices, ignoring horses weighted at less than 9 stone 3 lbs.
345 Doncaster – This is another 22-runner handicap. In 2009 and 2010, the favourites won, but recently winners have been at odds of 16/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 20/1. The last four winners were over four years of age. Will this continue?
Ignore the four top weights in this race and focus on 9 stone 2 lbs and lower.
So, I’d be ignoring the favourite here, and I would select a horse aged five or over, not one of the top weights, at odds of 20/1 to 25/1 each way. I would select three horses here at 20/1 to 25/1 (if there are any) and hope this big-odds trend continues.
420 Doncaster – This is a Class 5 maiden, and with nine runners is a great race for each way betting. Only two favourites have won, and the favourite won last year. I would look for an each way play, between the odds of 4/1 and 6/1. There have been three bigger-priced winners but the rest have been 6/1 and lower. A 5/1 horse each way, once the market has formed, will do me just right.
I hope you find some angles from the above.
With Doncaster heralding the Flat season, the Grand National, beginning on 9 April, heralds a winding down of the winter Jumps season.
Give me a chance eh?
As it’s such a good card at Doncaster tomorrow, I’ll take a look at the ‘past winners’ trends for you in the major races to see if anything catches the eye.
200 Doncaster – This is a Class 1 listed race and I’m afraid has only two years of stats, where the favourite has not won. Little to go on. If you want a cheeky lay of Tullius, the strong favourite, then liabilities will be low.
235 Doncaster – This is another Class 1 listed race. With only two winning favourites in ten races, this is a race for a nice speculative each way bet. Four of the last five winners have been at odds of 17/2, 22/1, 12/1 and 12/1. It seems, historically, that the winners come between the odds of 13/2 and 16/1.
Four-year-olds rarely win this race, so horses numbered 1, 2, 3 and 9 in the race card at www.racingpost.com might be discounted. Ten consecutive different trainers suggests we ignore Henry Candy’s Dinkum Diamond if we expect an 11th consecutive different trainer to win this race.
I’m going to stick with the Betting Forecast 12/1 hopes Lucky Beggar and Heaven’s Guest, each way, and hope this recent 12/1 trend continues (although I acknowledge that the Betting Forecast 12/1 is not necessarily the odds we’ll see in the live market).
310 Doncaster – This is a Class 2 handicap and all I can say here is, with the 22 runners, good luck! There have been two winning favourites: the last (two years ago) was a joint-favourite. The last seven winners have all been over 9 stone 3 lbs, so that can shorten the list, by ignoring horses numbered 16–22 inclusive on the Racing Post race card.
I’d be looking at one horse at 12/1, one at 16/1 and one at 20/1 each way here. Rarely do horses over 20/1 win this race. The field is big enough to allow more than one selection. So select these three prices, ignoring horses weighted at less than 9 stone 3 lbs.
345 Doncaster – This is another 22-runner handicap. In 2009 and 2010, the favourites won, but recently winners have been at odds of 16/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 20/1. The last four winners were over four years of age. Will this continue?
Ignore the four top weights in this race and focus on 9 stone 2 lbs and lower.
So, I’d be ignoring the favourite here, and I would select a horse aged five or over, not one of the top weights, at odds of 20/1 to 25/1 each way. I would select three horses here at 20/1 to 25/1 (if there are any) and hope this big-odds trend continues.
420 Doncaster – This is a Class 5 maiden, and with nine runners is a great race for each way betting. Only two favourites have won, and the favourite won last year. I would look for an each way play, between the odds of 4/1 and 6/1. There have been three bigger-priced winners but the rest have been 6/1 and lower. A 5/1 horse each way, once the market has formed, will do me just right.
I hope you find some angles from the above.
With Doncaster heralding the Flat season, the Grand National, beginning on 9 April, heralds a winding down of the winter Jumps season.
I’ll be looking at the three-day festival in these eletters in the run up to the National meeting, and I’ll be providing a special ‘handbag’ watch, checking out all of handbags and shoes of the WAGs who turn up (this has to pass by my editor, who might drop this segment [I will – ed]).
Short-priced favourites in the international break
The European qualifiers begin this evening and there are a lot of short-priced favourites. We have Slovenia, for instance, at odds of 1.03; Slovakia at odds of 1.1; England at odds of 1.12; Austria at odds of 1.17; and Switzerland at odds of 1.18 (with Slovenia, for instance, a £100 will return the princely sum of £3).
Do not be immediately dismissive of short-odds teams in the Match Odds market. Think:
Short-priced favourites in the international break
The European qualifiers begin this evening and there are a lot of short-priced favourites. We have Slovenia, for instance, at odds of 1.03; Slovakia at odds of 1.1; England at odds of 1.12; Austria at odds of 1.17; and Switzerland at odds of 1.18 (with Slovenia, for instance, a £100 will return the princely sum of £3).
Do not be immediately dismissive of short-odds teams in the Match Odds market. Think:
- Correct Score, possibly win to nil.
- Correct Score, win to nil in the Halftime market.
- Over 4.5 Goals or higher.
- The team to be winning at halftime and fulltime.
I can increase Slovenia’s 1.03 odds to 1.28. How? By backing them to win to nil. Once you realise that San Marino, their opponents today, have not scored in their last 15 Euro qualifiers, then the 1.28 odds look princely.
Similarly, 1.1, 1.12, 1.17 and 1.18 odds usually suggest three or four goals scored, as well as these favourites making a breakthrough before halftime. What chance will we get over 2.5 goals in all of these matches? At representative 1.57 odds for England, 1.62 for Slovakia, 1.82 for Austria, and 1.86 for Switzerland, this become a return of £76.10 profit to a £10 stake.
‘Hey presto!’ – you’ve turned shorties into something approaching value.
Wealth warning though: Austria have tended to win 1–0 in their recent euro qualifiers and the Swiss opponents Estonia kept England to a 1–0 win only, so we’ll have a fight on our hands tonight.
Using a ‘cash out’ facility on your accumulator means that you can cash out even before we see over 2.5 goals in each match. The merest hint that the bets will come in will help increase the possible returns before the matches are over.
Under normal circumstances, whenever you see a football team whose Match Odds are below 1.2 decimal odds, always think:
Similarly, 1.1, 1.12, 1.17 and 1.18 odds usually suggest three or four goals scored, as well as these favourites making a breakthrough before halftime. What chance will we get over 2.5 goals in all of these matches? At representative 1.57 odds for England, 1.62 for Slovakia, 1.82 for Austria, and 1.86 for Switzerland, this become a return of £76.10 profit to a £10 stake.
‘Hey presto!’ – you’ve turned shorties into something approaching value.
Wealth warning though: Austria have tended to win 1–0 in their recent euro qualifiers and the Swiss opponents Estonia kept England to a 1–0 win only, so we’ll have a fight on our hands tonight.
Using a ‘cash out’ facility on your accumulator means that you can cash out even before we see over 2.5 goals in each match. The merest hint that the bets will come in will help increase the possible returns before the matches are over.
Under normal circumstances, whenever you see a football team whose Match Odds are below 1.2 decimal odds, always think:
- Goal at least before halftime.
- The possibility for three or four goals.
And think: Correct Score permutations…
One article from the annals of What Really Wins Money (and subscribers can use the search facility at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk to search for various topics, as I did here), is on the subject of Correct Score permutations.
One article from the annals of What Really Wins Money (and subscribers can use the search facility at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk to search for various topics, as I did here), is on the subject of Correct Score permutations.
I do love to do these Correct Score permutations when we have such obvious favourites littering the football coupon today and going forward into this weekend.
I will copy and paste the article here in completeness. Yes, the examples are out-of-date, but the general strategy remains. Apply it this weekend if you can! Focus on possible wins to nil (San Marino, Andorra, Leichtenstein, Moldova and [now] Gibraltar matches spring to mind) and you could, again, turn these short-priced odds into a much more reasonable profit.
From the WRWM vaults…
During this international break, my main football strategy is the Correct Score strategy. It’s simple really. Go to the football coupon at www.betfair.com and take note of really short-priced selections.
Here’s an example of the real ‘shorties’ (as I call them), from today’s international football coupon…
1.30 p.m. – Serbia U19 v San Marino U19 – 1.02 to Serbia u19
2.00 p.m. – Liechtenstein U19 v France U19 – 1.01 to France U21
7.45 p.m. – Belgium v Andorra – 1.02 – 1.02 Belgium
Do not dismiss these short-priced teams who are un-backable in the Match Odds market…
I will copy and paste the article here in completeness. Yes, the examples are out-of-date, but the general strategy remains. Apply it this weekend if you can! Focus on possible wins to nil (San Marino, Andorra, Leichtenstein, Moldova and [now] Gibraltar matches spring to mind) and you could, again, turn these short-priced odds into a much more reasonable profit.
From the WRWM vaults…
During this international break, my main football strategy is the Correct Score strategy. It’s simple really. Go to the football coupon at www.betfair.com and take note of really short-priced selections.
Here’s an example of the real ‘shorties’ (as I call them), from today’s international football coupon…
1.30 p.m. – Serbia U19 v San Marino U19 – 1.02 to Serbia u19
2.00 p.m. – Liechtenstein U19 v France U19 – 1.01 to France U21
7.45 p.m. – Belgium v Andorra – 1.02 – 1.02 Belgium
Do not dismiss these short-priced teams who are un-backable in the Match Odds market…
- Think goals.
- Think correct scores.
- Think wins to nil.
Look at recent matches: Germany u19 were 1.03-shots against Kazakhstan u19 and won 6–0 (a correct score I correctly predicted in the DRT research).
Russia U19 were 1.04-shots against Faroe Islands u19 and won 7–0. My DRT research prediction: 6–0 and 8–0. Yes, that’s right – ye olde betting gods are having a good chortle at that prediction!
England were 1.01-shots against San Marino. The final score? 5–0. My research yesterday? ‘Look towards 6–0, 7–0 scorelines. England tend to level out at 5–0 and 6–0 at home to minnows.’
You see the pattern? Turn these shorties into a good-priced bet by looking at a goals bet or a correct score to nil bet.
You could include these matches in goals accumulators or Correct Score permutations.
How to exploit the Correct Score markets for potentially huge returns…
Try out the following permutations once you have determined a likely correct score, based upon these selection processes (and the assumption that these short-priced international teams will win at around a 4–0 starting point).
Permutation 1: Ukraine is playing Andorra at home. Ukraine is, quite rightly, very short-odds favourites, being quoted at odds of 1/40. This signifies goals. This will be Match One. On the same day, Russia is playing Liechtenstein. The Russians are quoted as 1/100 shots. Again, this signifies goals. This will be Match Two.
Russia U19 were 1.04-shots against Faroe Islands u19 and won 7–0. My DRT research prediction: 6–0 and 8–0. Yes, that’s right – ye olde betting gods are having a good chortle at that prediction!
England were 1.01-shots against San Marino. The final score? 5–0. My research yesterday? ‘Look towards 6–0, 7–0 scorelines. England tend to level out at 5–0 and 6–0 at home to minnows.’
You see the pattern? Turn these shorties into a good-priced bet by looking at a goals bet or a correct score to nil bet.
You could include these matches in goals accumulators or Correct Score permutations.
How to exploit the Correct Score markets for potentially huge returns…
Try out the following permutations once you have determined a likely correct score, based upon these selection processes (and the assumption that these short-priced international teams will win at around a 4–0 starting point).
Permutation 1: Ukraine is playing Andorra at home. Ukraine is, quite rightly, very short-odds favourites, being quoted at odds of 1/40. This signifies goals. This will be Match One. On the same day, Russia is playing Liechtenstein. The Russians are quoted as 1/100 shots. Again, this signifies goals. This will be Match Two.
- Match One: 2–0 3–0 4–0 4–1 5–0
- Match Two: 2–0 3–0 3–1 4–0 5–0
We write down a variation of scores which surround the 4–0 to hopefully account for any difficulties in scoring. I always include one score where the minnows score a goal – this, I’m afraid, is where luck comes in. 3–1 or 4–1 would be my options.
On the betting slip, we write: ‘Perm five results for each match for a Correct Score double = 25 bets’.
If the result of both matches is contained on your betting slip, you have a winning double, and as Correct Score bets tend to pay out at decent odds, we have a chance of a nice-paying double to compensate for the biggish cost of the bet.
Permutation 2: For this Correct Score permutation, we will focus predominantly on those teams and those leagues which are generally renowned for tight games and tight results.
On the betting slip, we write: ‘Perm five results for each match for a Correct Score double = 25 bets’.
If the result of both matches is contained on your betting slip, you have a winning double, and as Correct Score bets tend to pay out at decent odds, we have a chance of a nice-paying double to compensate for the biggish cost of the bet.
Permutation 2: For this Correct Score permutation, we will focus predominantly on those teams and those leagues which are generally renowned for tight games and tight results.
My first step here is to visit www.soccerstats.com, that little goldmine of information, and look at each team’s performance in a given league against the dominant teams in that league; or a team who are dominant at home.
For instance, if looking at the Premiership, I would select a team like Burnley, and looking at the Challenge Table, I determine that they are generally competitive at home, with scorelines of 1–0, 3–1, 1–0, 1–3, 2–1 and 2–0.
Alternatively, I would also look at teams such as Stoke, who, when playing the top-four teams at Stoke’s home ground in the Premiership (Man Utd, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea), do eventually lose, but keep the matches tight. Losses such as 2–1 and 2–0, when Chelsea and Man Utd visited, offer us an insight into the expected scorelines when Arsenal and Liverpool visit.
Another method of looking for a shortlist of matches is to look in those leagues which, whilst having dominant teams, tend to generate tight scorelines. As well as using the Challenge Table, we can also use the Scores (at Home) and Scores (Away) Tables to determine the most popular scorelines for a specific team.
One league which immediately springs to mind is the Greek Premier League. We have two dominant teams in Panathinaikos and Olympiakos.
For instance, if looking at the Premiership, I would select a team like Burnley, and looking at the Challenge Table, I determine that they are generally competitive at home, with scorelines of 1–0, 3–1, 1–0, 1–3, 2–1 and 2–0.
Alternatively, I would also look at teams such as Stoke, who, when playing the top-four teams at Stoke’s home ground in the Premiership (Man Utd, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea), do eventually lose, but keep the matches tight. Losses such as 2–1 and 2–0, when Chelsea and Man Utd visited, offer us an insight into the expected scorelines when Arsenal and Liverpool visit.
Another method of looking for a shortlist of matches is to look in those leagues which, whilst having dominant teams, tend to generate tight scorelines. As well as using the Challenge Table, we can also use the Scores (at Home) and Scores (Away) Tables to determine the most popular scorelines for a specific team.
One league which immediately springs to mind is the Greek Premier League. We have two dominant teams in Panathinaikos and Olympiakos.
If we look at Panathinaikos in particular, and the Scores (at Home) and Scores (Away) Tables at www.soccerstats.com, 2–1 has appeared three times at home, 1–0 has appeared once at home, and 1–0 has appeared twice away from home.
I hope you have subliminally noticed the scorelines mentioned above: 1–0, 2–1 and 2–0, and these will form the basis of our second permutation…
I hope you have subliminally noticed the scorelines mentioned above: 1–0, 2–1 and 2–0, and these will form the basis of our second permutation…
- Match One: 1–0 2–0 2–1
- Match Two: 1–0 2–0 2–1
- Match Three: 1–0 2–0 2–1
Write the above on your betting slip or in your long-list fixed-odds coupon with the instructions to the bookmaker to ‘Perm 3 scorelines for each match for a winning treble = 27 bets’.
I hope you find these correct score permutations useful.
And before I go…
Matt Houghton, over at Betting Rant, has put together a special email series that reveals all of his findings on one of the most famous and successful gamblers in history (no, not me!) and explains why this guy’s five secret betting principles are so important…
And, even better, Matt has uncovered a simple way for you to use them to achieve success in your own betting – you should be able to easily pocket an extra £180–£300 a week by using them.
The best part?
He’ll send you this special series for free: all you need to do to receive is click this link and pop down your name.
As I say, it’s an incredibly interesting story, and with Aintree just around the corner, there’s never been a better time to discover these profitable betting secrets.
Over the next week, Matt will send you one of the five secret principles each day and you’ll be able to read about them at your leisure.
Plus, he’ll show you exactly how you can put them into action to boost your betting bank and pocket consistent profits of £180–£300 a week.
Just click this link to pop your details down and start receiving these secrets for free.
I’m off now to wear out the pause button watching Kelly Brook’s Oscar winning performances in One Big Happy. I’ll be one big happy if one of my Correct Score perms comes in this weekend.
Have a great weekend and enjoy the start of the Flat Turf season proper at Doncaster tomorrow.
I hope you find these correct score permutations useful.
And before I go…
Matt Houghton, over at Betting Rant, has put together a special email series that reveals all of his findings on one of the most famous and successful gamblers in history (no, not me!) and explains why this guy’s five secret betting principles are so important…
And, even better, Matt has uncovered a simple way for you to use them to achieve success in your own betting – you should be able to easily pocket an extra £180–£300 a week by using them.
The best part?
He’ll send you this special series for free: all you need to do to receive is click this link and pop down your name.
As I say, it’s an incredibly interesting story, and with Aintree just around the corner, there’s never been a better time to discover these profitable betting secrets.
Over the next week, Matt will send you one of the five secret principles each day and you’ll be able to read about them at your leisure.
Plus, he’ll show you exactly how you can put them into action to boost your betting bank and pocket consistent profits of £180–£300 a week.
Just click this link to pop your details down and start receiving these secrets for free.
I’m off now to wear out the pause button watching Kelly Brook’s Oscar winning performances in One Big Happy. I’ll be one big happy if one of my Correct Score perms comes in this weekend.
Have a great weekend and enjoy the start of the Flat Turf season proper at Doncaster tomorrow.
Hi Clive
While having a sort through of books and papers,i came across a wrwm [premiere issue].
I beleive it is from 2005,my question is ,can you tell me if resultstodreamof is stillon your list of monymakers ,and could you tell me if i could get hold of a copy,
many thanks regards Paul