Very soon 1 March will be with us, and March is Cheltenham month for us betting types.
All things horse racing will be spoken about, and you will magically receive offer after offer after offer ad infinitum from hundreds upon hundreds of tipsters and services who all coincidentally have the ‘insider info’.
Now you know as well as I do that this is simply not possible. I prefer to use my own tactics and strategies for the festival.
Here’s one for free… I trialled it a couple of days ago and it did the business. If you use this strategy at Cheltenham, it should highlight the horses the bookmakers fear. On an ordinary day, at an ordinary meeting, it also works well, as you’ll see.
Example 1. 26 February 2015 210 Southwell
Here’s what you do (and this strategy should be known to What Really Wins Money readers of yore)… Using the Betting Forecast, we compare the odds with the live betting market at www.racingpost.com. Any horse in the live betting whose odds are shorter than those in the Betting Forecast should be shortlisted.
I know it’s Friday and your grey matter needs a rest, but indulge me. Which horse, or horses, has shorter live odds than their Betting Forecast odds?
If you said Come Uppence and Patrick, go to the top of the class.
Your next step is to look for the one or two with the really eye-catching difference in odds. For me, that horse is Come Uppence, 5/1 in the Betting Forecast, the horse is 5/2 favourite.
Here’s the result:
1 Moon River 8/1
2 Come Uppence 9/4J
3 Gerrard’s Slip 4/1
8 ran Distances: nk, 1l, 1½l
Come Uppence lost by a neck. It seems we found a fancied horse!
Example 2. 26 February 2015 215 Thurles.
Here’s the live odds along with the Betting Forecast odds. You know what to do now? Note the horse(s) whose live market odds are significantly shorter than their betting forecast odds.
My shortlist begins with Perfect Promise, She’s a Portrait and Shuilamach.
Perfect Promise is 25/1 in the Betting Forecast, and 14/1 in the live betting. That is a significant shortening. She’s a Portrait’s odds in the Betting Forecast are 7/1 and in the live market 5/1. Shuilamach is 5/1 in the Betting Forecast, and 7/2 in the live betting market.
I would plump with Perfect Promise here from a value perspective. How about you?
1 Perfect Promise 12/1
2 Carrigeen Kigelia 7/1
3 Shesaportrait 5/1
13 ran Distances: 21l, 6l, 8l
First and third here. Not bad huh?
Here are the other examples from 26 February 2015…
240 Southwell
If you spotted East River, you’re getting the hang of this.
1 Ernest 20/1
2 East River EvensF
3 Margot Rose 9/1
6 ran Distances: 1¼l, 2¾l, 1½l
320 Ludlow
Here’s another!
What’s happening is a slight qualifier early on, 10/1 in the Betting Forecast and 9/1 in the live betting. Note the horse went off at 17/2. Global Power was another qualifier: 8/1 in the Betting Forecast, he was 6/1 in the live betting. Alfie Spinner was the third qualifier: 8/1 in the Betting Forecast and 9/2 in the live market.
1 Global Power 13/2
2 Five Star Wilsham 20/1
3 Whats Happening 17/2
9 ran Distances: 4l, 1l, hd
First and third is not a bad haul.
And lastly, the 330pm Taunton:
Heronry’s odds were 4/1 in the Betting Forecast, and 10/3 in the live betting. But take a look at Dragon’s Den: 12/1 in the Betting Forecast and 7/1 in the live betting market.
1 Dragon’s Den 15/2
2 Alternatif 11/10F
3 Amanto 3/1
NR: Arrayan
5 ran Distances: 15l, 24l, 3l
Don’t use this strategy if there are short odds non-runners. Don’t use the strategy if there are too many qualifiers.
You see, with the selections, there were a few placing second and third, and I would advocate each-way betting, particularly with the Cheltenham Festival.
Add this to your arsenal for the Cheltenham Festival, particularly in the Bumpers – the National Hunt Flat races – as these are gambling races.
It’s a strategy I like to use when I follow the live betting market.
I hope you find it useful in uncovering potential Cheltenham gambles.
Have a great weekend.