I followed a quite amazing tennis match on Wednesday, which is the epitome of faith in a first seed coming back from making a right Horlicks of things in her match.
The volatility of woman’s tennis and faith in the seeding system!
Ladies and Gentlemen, let me introduce you to Madison Keys, who was playing Marjana Lucic-Baroni (which I thought was a spaghetti dish, but what do I know?).
Madison was first seed in the Strasbourg tennis tournament taking place, so was expected to cruise, but Lucic-Baroni took an early five-games-to-two lead in the first set. Madison fought back only to lose the set 6-4.
Clue Number 1! The first seed can stage a come back! Remember this when you see what set two brings us.
Set two began with Madison Keys playing blindfolded. That’s what I am guessing anyway. Lucic-Baroni took a five-games-to-nil lead in the second set.
Now to any right mind, Lucic-Baroni (today could be her Dolmio day!) is playing a blinder against the blind-folded Keys.
Remember! Madison Keys is the first seed in this tournament. Lucic-Baroni will have never been in a position like this against a far higher ranked player.
Cue nervousness.
Cue the collapse.
Cue the layers!
Guess what the second set scoreline was? Keys won 7-6 in a tie breaker. Lucic-Baroni was 1.03 to lay. I know. I layed her. (And if we were talking about Jack Nicholson, that would be a whole different definition of laying!)
Madison Keys went on to win the third set 7-6.
This kind of match is where you make big money!
Here’s Lucic-Baroni’s price graph:
Here’s Madison Key’s price graph:
Conversely, Madison Keys began the day at odds of 1.14, reached a high of 55 (wow!) and then dropped down to pre-match odds.
With the French Open and Wimbledon on its way, do remember that strong favourites making a complete Horlicks of their matches against underdogs can offer some superb odds.
‘You can’t handle the WOOF!‘
…As my close showbiz pal Jack Nicholson said to me when I told him I was researching greyhound racing betting and trading strategies.
As you can imagine, t’Internet is an amazing resource and my first port of call when researching the dogs. There are some weird and wonderful betting strategies out there – some with merit, some without.
I will clean each idea up when I can, and start to collect results.
I think the key to success consistently is to use some kind of a mathematical angle, coupled with a staking plan, and to basically kick any form-reading to the curb, girlfriend.
I personally cannot see the point of form-reading for greyhound racing. I see it as a numbers game. There is one idea I have to consistently profit, but you lovers of value will hate it with a vengeance. There is absolutely no value angle involved whatsoever. You are risking a huge amount for tuppence ha’penny.
But – and this ‘but’ is bigger than J-lo’s – you have 29 of 30 outcomes riding for you each time you place a lay bet.
I’ll leave this carrot dangling in front of you. Let’s see if you can suss out which market I am using. There is distinct promise here, perhaps as more of a compounding betting strategy. I am experimenting with a few quid and seeing how long I can go building the bank. If it doubles, I withdraw the profits and start again.
You will hit that 1 out of 30 at some stage.
Trading the greyhound markets is an angle in, but there is a distinct lack of liquidity.
As I said earlier, I think we can profit from spotting patterns and sequences with the favourites in dog races, and couple it with a unique staking plan. I’ll update you when I have cracked this.
Guineas-tastic!
Tomorrow sees the Irish 2000 Guineas meeting at the Curragh. Let me take you through some of the past winners for tomorrow’s race and see if there are any profitable patterns…
215 Curragh – The Marble Hill Stakes is a listed race for two-year-olds. Four favourites have won in the last five races so the market tends to get this race correct. Aiden O’Brien has won four of the last seven races.
Back the favourite here, it seems, particularly if the horse is an Aiden O’Brien-trained horse. Little value though it would seem.
245 Curragh – This is a Group 2 race, the Greenlands Stakes. Only two favourites have won in the last 11 races. Looking at the odds, I would look to back a 6/1–8/1 horse each way.
320 Curragh – This is the Irish 2000 Guineas. The biggest-priced winner in their last eight races was a 5/1 horse, so that should help your shortlist. Aiden O’Brien has won five of the last seven runnings of the 2000 Guineas.
Aiden O’Brien’s Gleneagles is the odds-on favourite here and is valueless. In a race like this, I would lay a 2/5 shot at the betting exchanges. Belardo looks like the obvious each way call. I would personally back Seamie Heffernan’s Smuggler’s Cove each way too.
I’m off back to the dogs! I am getting closer to solving the mystery of how to profit from this all-day-betting phenomenon.
Stay tuned! I am woof-less in my pursuit of a profit here.